Price pain greater in rural India due to rising rural food inflation: Crisil - Business Guardian
Connect with us

Economic

Price pain greater in rural India due to rising rural food inflation: Crisil

Published

on

Rural India continues to feel a sharper price pinch with inflation inching up in rural areas to 5.4 per cent from 5.3 per cent while urban inflation eased markedly to 4.1 per cent from 4.8 per cent. Inflation moved in opposite directions in urban and rural areas in March, according to a CRISIL report. The rating agency attributes this to rising food inflation in rural areas which crept up to 8.6 pr cent as compared to 8.4 per cent in urban India. Urban food inflation declined compared with the previous month when it was 9.2 per cent. The effect of inflation varies with income groups since the share of spending on food, fuel and core categories differs across classes. Items such as food and fuel, being essential, occupy a greater share in the consumption basket of lower income classes.

According to CRISIL, higher rural food inflation relative to urban was primarily a result of higher rural inflation in vegetables and cereals. Additionally, fuel inflation was significantly lower in urban areas (- 8.2 per cent) compared with rural areas (-0.2 per cent). Since the weight of core items is higher in the urban consumers’ basket, soft core inflation benefited urban inflation to a greater extent. Accordingly, all income segments in rural areas faced a higher burden than their urban counterparts. The top urban segment faced the lowest burden since core items occupy a 60 per cent share in their consumption basket.

Due to high food inflation, the poorest segment, particularly in rural India, faces a higher burden, shows the CRISIL report. The RBI’s bi-monthly household inflation expectations’ survey in February 2024 showed that households’ perception of current inflation moderated by 10 basis points from the previous survey to 8.1 per cent in January.

Median inflation expectation for the three months ahead rose 10 bps to stand at 9.2 per cent, while declining for the one-year horizon by 10 bps to 10.0 per cent, according to the latest survey conducted during 2-11 January, 2024 involving participants from 6,062 urban households. Female respondents accounted for 52.3% of the sample households. “A higher share of respondents foresees a rise in inflation in the near term but, over a one-year horizon, the share of households anticipating higher inflation has moderated as compared to the previous survey round,” according to the survey.

Consumer price index (CPI) inflation eased to a five-month low of 4.9 per cent in March from 5.1 per cent in February. While core inflation declined to a record low of 3.3 per cent, fuel deflated 3.2 per cent on the back of lower domestic fuel prices. The worry, though, remains on persistently high food inflation, at 8.5 per cent. Higher cereals inflation, erratic vegetable inflation and elevated pulses inflation are a cause of concern given the India Meteorological Department’s (IMD) prediction of higher-than-normal temperatures between April and June.

Although headline inflation eased to 5.4 per cent on-year in fiscal 2024 from 6.7 per cent, food inflation surged to 7.5 per cent from an already high 6.6 per cent in fiscal 2023. The March 2024 reading of 8.5 per cent food inflation creates some disquiet given the prediction of higher-than-average temperatures over the next few months that can stress vegetable production and some of the rabi crop that is yet to be harvested. In March 2024, inflation in vegetables softened, as per CRISIL to 28.3 per cent from 30.2 per cent in February.

Inflation in key vegetables such as onions hardened to 36.9 per cent vs 21.9 per cent in February that of potatoes to 41 per cent from 12.4 per cent. Inflation in tomatoes eased but remained high at 32.5 per cent as comparted to 41.8 per cent. Vegetables inflation excluding tomatoes, onions and potatoes (TOP) moderated to 24.4 per cent from 34 per cent in February. This was led by cooling inflation in garlic to 150.7 per cent from 263.9 per cent ), in brinjal to 18.9 per cent vs 23.2 per cent and in lady’s finger to -7.7 per cent vs .4 per cent in February 2024.

In March 2024, foodgrain inflation inched up to 10.2 per cent from 9.8 per cent in February, with cereals inflation rising 8.4 per cent vs 7.7 per cent and wheat inflation (from non-public distribution system sources) rising to 4.7 per cent from 2 per cent partly due to an adverse base while rice inflation, on the other hand, inched down to 12.7 per cent vs 12.9 per cent in February.

However, easing pulses inflation at 17.7 per cent vs 18.9 per cent capped the rise in foodgrains inflation. March inflation in meat and fish accelerated for the second straight month to 6.4 per cent from 5.2 per cent driven by chicken, which rose to 8.5 per cent from 5.6 per cent in February and fish and prawn to 6.6 per cent vs 6.1 per cent in February. The pace of deflation in edible oils slowed significantly as prices declined 11.7 per cent on-year compared with 14 per cent in the previous month, spices inflation moderated for the seventh straight month to 11.4 per cent from 13.5 per cent.

The Daily Guardian is now on Telegram. Click here to join our channel (@thedailyguardian) and stay updated with the latest headlines.

For the latest news Download The Daily Guardian App.

Entertainment

Hindi film industry sees 6% cinema growth in 2023

Published

on

In 2023, India witnessed a modest increase in the number of movie screens, with Hindi-speaking regions leading the growth, followed by the east and south, as per the latest FICCI-EY media and entertainment industry report. Despite the pandemic-induced challenges, the country’s cinema landscape showed signs of recovery, with the total number of screens surpassing 2018 levels. However, the expansion remains heavily skewed towards certain regions like Delhi NCR, Maharashtra, and Bengaluru, leaving states like Bihar, Uttar Pradesh, and Odisha relatively underserved. High real estate costs and audience disconnect with contemporary movie themes contribute to this imbalance. Multiplex chains are eyeing expansion into untapped markets, awaiting infrastructure development for further growth.

India’s cinema industry, renowned globally for its diverse and vibrant film culture, has faced various challenges in recent years. The COVID-19 pandemic dealt a severe blow to the sector, forcing many theatres to shut down temporarily or permanently. The subsequent restrictions on movie releases and audience capacity further exacerbated the situation. Despite these setbacks, the gradual reopening of theatres and the resurgence of audience interest in cinematic experiences have injected a sense of optimism into the industry.

The increase in the number of movie screens in 2023, albeit modest, reflects a positive trend amidst adversity. The growth, particularly in Hindi-speaking markets, underscores the resilience of regional film industries and their ability to adapt to changing circumstances. The rise in screens in the east and south also signifies the importance of these regions in the overall cinematic landscape of the country.

However, the disparity in screen distribution across different states remains a notable challenge. While states like Maharashtra and Karnataka boast a significant number of screens, others such as Bihar and Jharkhand lag behind. This imbalance not only limits access to cinema for residents of these regions but also hampers the growth potential of the industry as a whole.

One of the primary factors contributing to this imbalance is the high cost of real estate, especially in urban centers where multiplexes are typically located. The exorbitant prices make it economically unviable for cinema operators to establish new theatres in smaller towns and cities. As a result, the expansion of multiplex chains has been concentrated in areas with favorable infrastructure and consumer demand, leaving other regions underserved.

Moreover, audience preferences and viewing habits vary significantly across different parts of the country. While metropolitan cities may have a diverse audience that appreciates a wide range of film genres and languages, smaller towns and rural areas often have more limited tastes. This disparity in preferences influences the type of content that filmmakers produce and the distribution strategies adopted by distributors and exhibitors.

In recent years, there has been a growing focus on catering to the preferences of urban audiences, particularly those in metropolitan areas. Films targeting the multiplex-going demographic, featuring niche genres and unconventional storytelling, have gained prominence. However, this trend has also led to a neglect of audiences in non-metro regions, where traditional, mainstream cinema continues to dominate. To address these challenges and promote inclusive growth, industry stakeholders must adopt a holistic approach that takes into account the diverse needs and aspirations of audiences across the country.

This includes exploring innovative business models, leveraging technology to enhance the cinematic experience, and investing in infrastructure development in underserved regions. Additionally, government intervention and policy support are crucial in facilitating the expansion of the cinema industry and ensuring equitable access to entertainment opportunities. Incentives for multiplex operators to establish theatres in non-metro areas, subsidies for the development of cinema infrastructure, and initiatives to promote regional cinema can help bridge the gap and foster a more inclusive film ecosystem.

Ultimately, the growth of India’s cinema industry hinges on its ability to embrace diversity, adapt to evolving consumer preferences, and overcome geographical and socioeconomic barriers. By addressing these challenges collectively and collaboratively, stakeholders can unlock the full potential of the country’s rich cinematic heritage and drive sustainable growth for the future.

Continue Reading

Business

RIL net profit falls1.8% to Rs 18,951 cr yoy, revenue up 10.8 % on O2C, consumer biz

Published

on

Reliance Industries on Monday posted a net profit of Rs 18,951 crore in the March quarter (Q4) of FY24, a 1.8 per cent decrease in its net profit compared to the previous year but revenue at Rs 264,834 crore grew 10.8 per cent year-on-year, supported by double-digit growth in oil to chemical and consumer business. Furthermore, EBITDA saw a yoy growth of 16.1 per cent, reaching Rs 178,677 crore with positive contribution from all key operating segments. The conglomerate also announced an interim dividend Rs 10 per equity share for the financial year ended 31 March, 2024.

On an annual basis, RIL’s gross revenue at Rs 1,000,122 crore (USD 119.9 billion), was up 2.6 per cent yoy, supported by continued growth momentum in consumer businesses and upstream business. Revenue for JPL increased by 11.7 per cent yoy, led by robust subscriber growth of 42.4 million across mobility and homes and benefit of mix improvement in ARPU. Revenue for RRVL grew by 17.8 per cent yoy with strong growth across all consumption baskets, gross area addition of 15.6 million square feet and record footfalls of over a one billion.

Mukesh D. Ambani, Chairman and Managing Director, RIL, attributed “remarkable contribution” of initiatives across RIL’s businesses towards fostering growth of various sectors of the Indian economy with all segments posting robust financial and operating performance. “This has helped the company achieve multiple milestones. I am happy to share that this year, Reliance became the first Indian company to cross the Rs 100,000-crore threshold in pre-tax profits,” said Ambani.

The March quarter financial results on 22 April show that while JIO platforms (JPL) EBITDA increased 12.8 per cent with higher revenue and margin improvement, Reliance retail (RRVL) EBITDA increased sharply by 28.5 per cent with margin expansion of 60 bps to 8.4 per cent. Oil and gas EBITDA increased sharply by 48.6 per cent, led by higher gas and condensate production with the commissioning of the MJ field during the year. Revenue for O2C decreased by 5.0 per cent primarily on account of lower product price realization following a 13.5 per cent yoy decline in average Brent crude oil prices. This was partially offset by higher volumes. Revenue from oil and gas segment increased significantly by 48.0 per cent mainly on account of higher volumes from KG D6 block (which was up 56.8 per cent, despite lower gas price realization from KG D6 field.

Strong demand for fuels globally, and limited flexibility in refining system worldwide, supported margins and profitability of the O2C segment. Downstream chemical industry experienced increasingly challenging market conditions through the year but maintaining leading product positions and feedstock flexibility through the operating model that prioritizes cost management, we delivered a resilient performance. The KG-D6 block has achieved 30 MMSCMD of production and now accounts for 30 per cent of India’s domestic gas production.

Finance costs of RIL increased by 18.1 per cent yoy to ₹ 23,118 crore (USD 2.8 billion) due to higher liability balances and higher market interest rates. Tax Expenses increased by 26.2 per cent yoy to ₹ 25,707 crore on account of utilization of tax credits in the previous financial year. Profit after tax increased by 7.3 per cent yoy to ₹ 79,020 crore.

Performance of the digital services segment has been boosted by accelerated expansion of the subscriber base, supported by both mobility and fixed wireless services. With over 108 million True 5G customers, Jio truly leads the 5G transformation in India.

Continue Reading

Economic

India Sees Decline in New Formal Job Creation, Hits Three-Month Low in February

Published

on

The rural unemployment rate increased sharply to 7.8% in February from 5.8% in January, while urban unemployment rate fell from 8.9% to 8.5% during the same period.

The country’s formal labour market witnessed a slowdown in February, with fewer fresh jobs being created, the latest payroll data released by the Employee Provident Fund Organisation (EPFO) showed on Saturday. The number of new monthly subscribers to the Employees’ Provident Fund (EPF) declined nearly 3.7 per cent in February to 777,717 from 807,865 the previous month. This is crucial, as only the formal workforce enjoys social security benefits and is protected by labour laws. By comparison, 764,106 subscribers had joined the EPF in February 2023.

In what suggests some robustness, 516,619 of the total new EPF subscribers in February (nearly 67 per cent) belong to the 18-28 age group, a cohort mostly comprised of new entrants to the labour market. The share of women in total new subscribers increased slightly to 26.4 per cent (205,386), compared with 25.32 per cent (204,569) the previous month.

Meanwhile, net payroll additions — calculated by considering the number of new subscribers, those that exited, and the old subscribers who returned to the social-security organisation — also declined by 3.4 per cent to 1.54 million in February from 1.60 million in January. Net monthly payroll numbers, however, are provisional in nature and are often revised sharply the next month. So, the new EPF subscriber figure is considered more reliable than net additions.

“The payroll data highlights that about 1.8 million members exited and subsequently rejoined EPFO. These members switched their jobs and rejoined the establishments covered under the EPFO and opted to transfer their accumulations instead of applying for final settlement, thus safeguarding their long-term financial well-being and extending their social security protection,” the labour ministry said in a statement.

According to Centre for Monitoring Indian Economy (CMIE), a private agency that conducts its own Consumer Pyramids Household Survey (CPHS), the labour markets deteriorated in February as the unemployment rate increased to 8 per cent from 6.8 per cent the previous month on the back of an increase in unemployment in rural areas. The rural unemployment rate increased sharply to 7.8 per cent in February from 5.8 per cent in January, while urban unemployment rate fell from 8.9 per cent to 8.5 per cent during the same period. The labour force participation rate (LFPR) climbed to 41.4 per cent in February, from 40.6 per cent the previous month. The monthly EPF subscription data released by the labour ministry is part of the government’s effort to track formal job creation in the country by using payrolls as a measure.

Continue Reading

Economic

FPIs Sell Rs 5,254 crore in Indian equities amid rising US bond yields, become net sellers in debt mkts

Published

on

Foreign portfolio investors (FPIs) have shifted their stance in the Indian markets, transitioning from net buyers to net sellers as the momentum of their buying diminished with the onset of the new fiscal year 2024-25 (FY25). This shift follows a period of robust inflows reported during the previous fiscal. However, experts express skepticism regarding the continuity of these inflows in the near term, citing concerns related to the India-Mauritius tax treaty and prevailing weak global cues.

According to data from the National Securities Depository Ltd (NSDL), FPIs have divested ₹5,254 crore worth of Indian equities, contributing to a total outflow of ₹8,982 crore as of April 19. This outflow encompasses various asset classes including debt, hybrid instruments, debt-VRR (Voluntary Retention Route), and equities. The data further reveals that the total debt outflows have amounted to ₹6,174 crore thus far in the month.

The shift in FPI sentiment underscores a cautious approach adopted by foreign investors amidst evolving market dynamics and regulatory developments. The onset of the new fiscal year appears to have prompted a reassessment of investment strategies, leading to a reduction in buying momentum and subsequent divestment activities.

Analysts point to several factors contributing to the cautious stance adopted by FPIs. The ongoing uncertainty surrounding the India-Mauritius tax treaty has raised concerns among investors regarding the tax implications of their investments in Indian markets. The impending changes in tax regulations and potential impact on investment returns have prompted foreign investors to adopt a wait-and-see approach, refraining from aggressive buying.

Furthermore, weak global cues, including geopolitical tensions and economic uncertainties, have added to the apprehensions surrounding investment prospects in emerging markets like India. The prevailing volatility in global financial markets, exacerbated by factors such as inflationary pressures and monetary policy tightening measures in major economies, has led investors to exercise caution and reevaluate their risk exposure. The outflow of FPI investments across various asset classes reflects a broader trend of risk aversion and portfolio realignment among foreign investors. While Indian equities have witnessed significant divestment, the debt segment has also experienced notable outflows, signaling a repositioning of investment portfolios in response to changing market conditions.

Amidst the prevailing uncertainties, market participants remain vigilant about the potential implications of FPI activity on Indian markets and the broader economy. The evolving investment landscape underscores the importance of policy measures aimed at fostering investor confidence and promoting stability in the financial markets.

Looking ahead, the trajectory of FPI flows will likely hinge on a multitude of factors, including developments related to the India-Mauritius tax treaty, global economic trends, and domestic policy initiatives. While near-term uncertainties may dampen investor sentiment, the long-term fundamentals of the Indian economy remain resilient, presenting opportunities for investors to capitalize on the growth potential of the market.

In conclusion, the recent shift in FPI sentiment and the resultant outflow of investments underscore the dynamic nature of global capital markets and the need for adaptive investment strategies in response to changing market dynamics. As India continues on its path of economic recovery and structural reforms, maintaining a conducive investment environment will be crucial in attracting foreign capital and supporting sustainable growth in the years to come.

Continue Reading

Economic

India diversifies trade, exports to China, UAE, Russia, Singapore surge

Published

on

India’s export landscape for the financial year 2023-24 witnessed notable strides, particularly in markets like China, Russia, Iraq, UAE, and Singapore. According to data from the commerce ministry, India’s overall exports, encompassing both merchandise and services, stood at an estimated USD 776.68 billion for the fiscal year, maintaining stability compared to the previous period. However, the breakdown reveals a nuanced picture, with merchandise exports experiencing a marginal decline of 3.1 percent to USD 437.06 billion, while services exports recorded a 4.4 percent growth, reaching USD 339.62 billion.

In March 2024, despite a slight dip, the figures remained substantial, with merchandise exports totaling USD 41.68 billion, down by 0.7 percent, and services exports at USD 28.54 billion, marking a 6.3 percent decrease. Comparatively, the preceding financial year (2022-23) showcased robust growth, witnessing a remarkable surge of over 14 percent, amounting to nearly USD 100 billion annually.

Moreover, imports for the financial year 2023-24 witnessed a decline of 4.8 percent, settling at USD 854.80 billion. In March 2024 alone, both merchandise and services imports experienced a downturn, declining by 5.41 percent and 2.46 percent, respectively.

The surge in exports can be attributed to several factors, including enhanced trade relations with key partners and strategic initiatives implemented by the Indian government. Notably, India’s exports to countries like China, Russia, Iraq, UAE, and Singapore have seen substantial growth, albeit from a comparatively low base. These nations, along with others like the UK, Australia, Saudi Arabia, the Netherlands, and South Africa, constitute the top 10 export destinations for India.

The Indian government’s proactive measures, such as the implementation of the Production Linked Incentive (PLI) scheme across various sectors, have played a pivotal role in driving export growth. The PLI scheme aims to bolster India’s manufacturing capabilities, foster global competitiveness among domestic producers, attract foreign investments, stimulate export growth, integrate India into the global supply chain, and reduce dependency on imports. By incentivizing production in sectors like electronic goods and others, the PLI scheme has encouraged manufacturers to enhance their productivity and efficiency, thereby boosting exports. This strategic approach aligns with India’s broader economic agenda of promoting self-reliance, fostering innovation, and positioning the country as a global manufacturing hub.

Despite the challenges posed by global economic uncertainties and fluctuations in trade dynamics, India’s export performance has remained resilient. The consistent growth in exports, particularly in services, underscores the country’s growing prowess in sectors like IT, software services, business process outsourcing (BPO), and others.

Looking ahead, India aims to sustain and further enhance its export momentum by continuing to implement strategic policies, fostering innovation and technological advancements, diversifying its export basket, and strengthening trade partnerships with both traditional and emerging markets.

In a nutshell, India’s export trajectory for the fiscal year 2023-24 reflects a blend of resilience, strategic foresight, and proactive policy interventions. With concerted efforts from both the government and industry stakeholders, India is poised to consolidate its position as a key player in the global trade landscape and drive sustainable economic growth in the years to come.

Continue Reading

Politics

Government Aiming to Enhance India’s Appeal for Manufacturing and Services: FM Sitharaman

Published

on

Speaking about inflation, she said it never crossed the tolerance band, except for one month, under the Narendra Modi government, whereas before that (pre-2014) the economy was in a bad shape and inflation was in double digits.

Union Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman on Saturday said the Centre has tailored policies to make India an attractive destination for manufacturing and services, and the aim was to produce not just for the domestic market but for exports as well. She was responding to a query on American tech billionaire Elon Musk postponing his meeting with Prime Minister Narendra Modi.

“Policies have been made to attract investments. We want manufacturers and investors to come and produce not just for India but also for exports. We will try to attract manufacturers and investors through policies,” she told reporters. Tesla CEO Musk on Saturday said his visit to India has been delayed due to the company’s heavy obligations.

“When big companies show interest to come to India, we will do everything to make it attractive for them to come and invest. In that process, if there is anything to discuss, we will certainly discuss. But whatever we have done, we have done it through policy,” Sitharaman added.

Asserting the Union government’s approach has helped especially after China plus one started being a concern for many industry experts, she said policies have been tailored in such a way so as to make India an attractive destination for manufacturing and for services.

Speaking about inflation, she said it never crossed the tolerance band, except for one month, under the Narendra Modi government, whereas before that (pre-2014) the economy was in a bad shape and inflation was in double digits. “At that time (pre 2014) nobody had any expectations from the country.

After much hard work, we have emerged as the world’s fifth largest economy and are confidently saying we will be third in the next two to two-and-half years,” the Union minister said. On employment, Sitharaman said there was lack of complete data from both the formal and informal sectors, but asserted initiatives of the Centre have ensured jobs to lakhs. “The data is inadequate. I am not saying this pride but while accepting its weakness. All I can say regarding employment is that the money given to people and startups through different schemes…people in crores have availed support. Between October 2022 and November 2023, through the Rozgar Mela, Modi has given government jobs to 10 lakh people,” she said.

When asked about the rule that requires larger companies to pay Micro, Small and Medium Enterprises (MSMEs) within 45 days of receiving goods or services, Sitharaman said the law has been existence since 2007-08 and is not new. “Later MSMEs themselves came and said the 45-day payment is not happening within that financial year. But within that financial year, this amount is shown as expenditure and to that extent tax is not being paid. All that we have done through the Finance Act that was passed in Parliament on February 1, 2023,” she said. “We just said tax treatment remains the same. Make a claim in the year you pay to the MSMEs. How can you claim when you have not made payment?” she asked.

Queried about the Indian rupee weakening against the US dollar, she said the fluctuation was due to global uncertainty, wars as well as uncertainty in supply of crude oil from the Middle East. Earlier, addressing industry leaders from Gujarat on ‘Viksit Bharat -2047’, she said 28 per cent of total capital under Production Linked Incentive (PLI) scheme has come to the state, which has shown remarkable alertness in the last 10-12 years. So semiconductor manufacturing for India comes first in Gujarat, which has a policy as well as government and ecosystem ready for manufacturing for Viksit Bharat 2047, she said.

“The IFSC at GIFT City in Gandhinagar is a big gateway for services to grow in Gujarat. A world-class financial services centre very close to Ahmedabad is just the key for India to reach that kind of global market for attracting more investment and more financial operations,” Sitharaman said. She also said Gujarat was in third position in attracting FDI in manufacturing.

Continue Reading

Trending