Fitch Ratings affirms stable outlook for PSU banks, cites India’s growth, resilience - Business Guardian
Connect with us

Economic

Fitch Ratings affirms stable outlook for PSU banks, cites India’s growth, resilience

Published

on

Funding remains a strength for PNB as customer deposits constituted about 91 per cent of total funding in 9MFY24 by our estimates, driven by high depositor confidence due to the bank’s close state linkages.

Fitch Ratings has affirmed a stable outlook for public sector banks in India it rates, with the rating action underlined by India’s robust medium-term growth potential supported by expectation of a GDP growth of 7 per cent in 2024 and 6.5 per cent in 2025 and investment prospects. “The economy remains resilient as healthy business sentiment, buoyant financial markets and the government’s capital spending buffered global economic headwinds and inflation. These factors are conducive for banks to sustain profitable business, provided risks are well-managed,” the Fitch report points out.

The ratings of Canara Bank, State Bank of India, Union Bank of India and Punjab National Bank among others are driven by criteria ranging from government support, strong operating environment, dominant presence, double digit loan growth, strong profitability and dominance of deposits and modest capital buffers. The score of ‘bb+’ given on operating environment (OE) of the State Bank of India is precisely because of this view of India’s robust medium-term growth potential.

According to Fitch, the State Bank of India has the highest probability of extraordinary state support among Indian banks, if required. This takes into consideration SBI’s market position as the largest Indian bank, the state’s 56.9 per cent controlling ownership and its broader policy role than peers. The rating agency has also given a stable outlook on the international depository receipt (IDR) which is a negotiable certificate issued by a bank, representing ownership of a number of shares of stock in a foreign company that the bank holds in trust.

The bank’s business profile score of ‘bbb-’ is the highest among Indian banks and reflects the Fitch view of SBI’s ability to generate business consistently through the cycle while managing risk better than peer state banks. It also reflects the competitive advantages of its dominant size and market share and unparalleled domestic reach that offset the sector’s limited pricing power. Still, government influence can weigh on SBI’s traditional business model – loans are about 60% of assets – and even more so on its risk appetite, similar to other state banks. The risk profile score of ‘bb’ given on double-digit loan growth takes into consideration its advantage over peers in portfolio selection due to scale, brand loyalty and widespread presence. Fitch Ratings believes that the bank’s appetite for risk has been higher than is typical for a bank with its market position — despite total loan growth slowing to 14.5 per cent yoy in 9MFY24, from 16 per cent in the financial year ended March 2023 (FY23).

The other bank affirmed by Fitch Ratings as ‘outlook stable’ is Canara Bank at ‘BBB-’, reflecting the Fitch view of a high probability of extraordinary state support for the bank, if required. This takes into consideration the state’s 63 per cent ownership as well as the bank’s large size and reach and the assessment of the state’s strong propensity to support the banking system in general. Canara’s business profile score of ‘bb+’ reflects the bank’s strong local franchise and reach as India’s fourth-largest state bank. This is counterbalanced by the bank’s high risk appetite, which has weighed on its traditional business model in the past and was partly a result of government influence, similar to other state banks.

According to Fitch, growth appetite of Canara Bank is higher for farm loans, along with some opportunistic growth in corporate loans in recent years, although Canara appears to have been more cautious towards retail loans than its peers. The Fitch estimate is that that the loan/customer deposit ratio rose by about 200bp in 9MFY24, from 79 per cent in FY23, and is now close to the 82 per cent level in FY18. It expects the ratio to increase moderately over the next one to two years, although the bank’s excess investments in liquid government securities should continue to support liquidity. In the case of Punjab National Bank, the rating action of Punjab National Bank at ‘BBB‐’; Outlook Stable’ draws from the Fitch view that PNB’s long-term IDR and Government Support Rating (GSR) or shareholder support rating (SSR) are at the same level as India’s sovereign rating (BBB-/Stable).

This reflects Fitch’s expectation of a high probability of extraordinary state support for the bank, if required. This takes into consideration its large size with a market share of 6 per cent in sector assets and 7 per cent in deposits, the state’s 73 per cent ownership, and PNB’s quasi-policy role through social lending. The bank’s business profile score reflects the bank’s large franchise and its ability to support profitable business generation. However, this is counterbalanced by PNB’s larger risk appetite – due partly to the government’s influence – that has weighed on its traditional business model, similar to other state banks.

This has resulted in significant earnings volatility over the previous cycle, although volatility has eased amid the clean-up of bad loans, observes Fitch Ratings. Funding remains a strength for PNB as customer deposits constituted about 91 per cent of total funding in 9MFY24 by our estimates, driven by high depositor confidence due to the bank’s close state linkages. The ‘BBB‐’; Outlook Stable’ rating by Fitch for Union Bank of India again rests on the bank’s long-term IDR and GSR being at the same level as the Indian sovereign’s IDR (BBB-/ stable), reflecting the view of a high probability of extraordinary state support for UBI.

The bank’s large size with a market share of 5 per cent in sector assets and 6 per cent in deposits, the state’s 75 per cent ownership and its quasi-policy role through social lending are factored into the action. The risk profile score considers its evolving portfolio mix, but also the bank’s growth appetite returning, including in corporate loans, which could test its enhanced underwriting standards and risk controls.

The bank’s funding also remains a strength as customer deposits constituted about 95 per cent of total non-equity funding in 9MFY24, driven by high depositor confidence due to the bank’s close state linkages. Fitch estimate is that Union’s loans/customer deposits rose to 77.8 per cent in 9MFY24, from 73.7 per cent at FY23 and there is moderate headroom for the ratio to rise, as it is approaching the pre-Covid-19 levels of 79.3 per cent.

The Daily Guardian is now on Telegram. Click here to join our channel (@thedailyguardian) and stay updated with the latest headlines.

For the latest news Download The Daily Guardian App.

Economic

Gujarat and Karnataka lead clean energy transition: IEEFA Report

Published

on

The Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis (IEEFA) and Ember’s report, “Indian States’ Electricity Transition” (SET), underscores Karnataka and Gujarat’s leadership in advancing the clean energy transition. The report emphasizes that these states have demonstrated robust performance in various aspects, successfully integrating renewable energy sources into their power sectors and making significant progress in decarbonization efforts.

The report evaluates the clean electricity transition preparedness at the subnational level. In 2024, the report adds five more states, totaling 21 states and representing about 95% of India’s annual power demand in the past seven financial years (FY) 2018 to 2024 (up to November). This year, the assessment parameters have been updated to better align with states’ electricity transition progress, incorporating stakeholder feedback and data availability. According to the re – port, progress in states like Jharkhand, Bihar, West Bengal and Uttar Pradesh needs to improve, similar to last year’s findings. While these states are in the early stages of their transition, they now need to focus on increasing renewable energy deployment, enhancing short term market participation and strengthening their distribution companies.

The report was released when temperatures in India started to soar, leading to the Ministry of Power preparing for a projected peak power demand of 260 gigawatts. Harsh summers also offer the chance to utilise more clean energy like solar power. Although, this requires the preparedness of states to transition to clean sources of electricity. “Cyclical weather conditions coupled with faster economic activity is pushing India’s peak electricity demand higher every year.

While the central government is taking steps to integrate more renewable energy into the grid, states, too, need to be prepared to do so. Gauging subnational progress now requires constant monitoring of several parameters at the state level. A purely national overview can often overshadow subtle intricacies at the state level, which may stymie the country’s electricity transition,” said the report’s contributing author, Vibhuti Garg, Director – South Asia, IEEFA.

The report finds that while the national-level progress towards the electricity transition is progressing well, it is far more uneven at the state level. “Some states have developed progressive steps, such as boosting decentralised renewable energy deployment, promoting solar pumps for agricultural needs, and enhancing storage solutions to ensure more renewable energy in their electricity systems. But, the transition to clean electricity is still in its infancy in many states.

These states should look to accelerate the efforts to access the benefits of a transition to clean electricity and to ensure that they are not left too far behind the better performing states,” said the report’s contributing author, Aditya Lolla, Asia Programme Director, Ember. One of the major findings from the report was that several states are exhibiting preparedness to embrace electricity transition.

They perform well in the Readiness and Performance of the Power Ecosystem and Market Enablers dimensions but need to improve in the Decarbonisation dimension. “Delhi’s power system is well-prepared for decarbonisation, while Odisha has robust market enablers to support decarbonisation in the power sector.

However, their actual decarbonisation progress so far does not match their strengths in these aspects, highlighting the importance of performing well in both dimensions to effectively achieve decarbonisation goals,” said co-author Neshwin Rodrigues, Electricity Policy Analyst, Ember.

Continue Reading

Business

SEBI: 12 offshore funds break disclosure rules in Adani Group investments

Published

on

12 offshore investment funds allegedly breached disclosure regulations and exceeded investment limits while investing in Adani Group companies.

Sebi, India’s market regulator, found that twelve offshore funds investing in Adani Group companies violated disclosure regulations and surpassed investment limits, according to Reuters, citing anonymous sources. Reuters initially reported Sebi’s discovery of disclosure rule breaches by listed entities and offshore funds exceeding investment limits in August last year. Additionally, Sebi was probing the Adani Group’s association with one of the funds to ascertain potential coordination with the conglomerate’s major shareholders, an accusation previously denied by Adani.

Earlier this year, the regulator reportedly issued notices to twelve offshore investors associated with the Adani Group, outlining the allegations and seeking clarification on violations of disclosure requirements and investment limits.

“The offshore funds were reporting their investment in Adani Group companies at the individual fund level. The regulator wanted the disclosure of holdings at the offshore fund group level,” Reuters reported, citing a source.

Eight of these offshore funds have requested to settle the charges by paying a penalty without admitting guilt, as per the sources cited by the agency.

Previously, Sebi identified 13 foreign portfolio investors (FPIs) for failing to disclose information about their ultimate beneficial owners in listed Adani entities, with eight seeking resolution with the regulator on securities violation issues.

Legal representatives for Albula Investment Fund, Cresta Fund, MGC Fund, Asia Investment Corporation (Mauritius), APMS Investment Fund, Elara India Opportunities Fund, Vespera Fund, and LTS Investment Fund have collectively submitted 16 settlement applications.

Continue Reading

Business

Cement demand growth likely to cool in FY25, benign costs to aid profitability

Published

on

India’s cement industry will see a tapering of demand growth to 6-7 per cent in fiscal 2025 after a third straight year of healthy demand growth at 11 per cent in fiscal 2024 to 441 million tonnes (MT). Cement volume growth recovered to a healthy 7-8 per cent on-year in the last quarter of fiscal 2024, on aggressive volume push, after growing 15 per cent on-year in the first half and logging a moderate slowdown in the third quarter due to regional hindrances. Production of cement, one of the economy’s eight infrastructure industries used to measure core sector growth, increased by 6.7 per cent on-year (provisional) in February 2024, as per Government data.

In fiscal 2025, CRISIL Research forecasts a 9-11 per cent correction in power and fuel cost led by softening of pet coke and coal prices. Freight expenditure is also expected to decline 1-3 per cent on the back of lower diesel prices, combined with players’ efforts to improve lead distances through aggressive expansions. According to Nomura, in 4QFY24F, the India cement industry saw a late recovery in demand from both trade and non-trade sectors resulting in strong volume growth. Analyst Jashandeep Singh Chad sees clinker utilisation levels to be 95 per cent for the top six cement manufacturers (in Nomura coverage universe) supported by pre-election demand.

Benign costs are, however, expected to prop up cement industry profitability on-year. Pan-India cement prices took a beating in the second half of the fiscal amid increasing competition and higher supply in the market. Nomura Ratings points out that in April 2024, the cement industry announced significant price hikes of around Rs 20-50/bag, across the country, breaking the five-month price moderation streak, implying improvement in cement spreads for 1QFY25F. Prices have plunged by Rs 40-45 per bag in the five months (November 2023 – March 2024) since the last price hike in October 2023. Signaling elevated competitive intensity in the market, the months of January and February did not see sustained price hikes this year unlike the trend of firms pricing in the early months of Q4 (and a price drop in March due to the year-end volume push). Aggressive volume push at the expense of pricing resulted in a 6 per cent sequential decline in cement prices to Rs 370-375 on average per 50 kg bag in the fourth quarter, with exit prices in March at Rs 360-362 per bag. Thus, at the overall level, cement prices have been subdued, declining 1.5 per cent to Rs 383-385 per bag on average in fiscal 2024 from an all-time high of Rs 391 per bag in fiscal 2023.

According to Sehul Bhatt, Director-Research, CRISIL Market Intelligence and Analytics, there is heightened competitive intensity due to the entry of new players, 40-42 MT of capacity additions, and benign cost pressures which pushed cement price correction in fiscal 2024 after four consecutive years of price rise at a CAGR of 4 per cent from fiscal 2020 to fiscal 2023. In fiscal 2025, continued capacity expansion, declining cost pressures, and moderating demand are expected to limit any uptick and keep prices range-bound at (1)-1 per cent.

Cement manufacturers like Ambuja Cements, the cement and building material company of the diversified Adani Portfolio has signed a definitive agreement to acquire My Home Group’s 1.5 MTPA cement grinding unit in Tuticorin, Tamil Nadu. The acquisition at Rs 413.75 crore through internal accruals will aid in enhancing the coastal footprint across southern markets of Tamil Nadu and Kerala. The total cement capacity of Adani Group stands at 78.9 MTPA.

On the profitability front, benign costs brought a sigh of relief to players in fiscal 2024 despite subdued realizations. On an annual basis, power and fuel costs, accounting for 30-35 per cent of total costs, declined 16-18 per cent in fiscal 2024, mainly due to the dip in Australian coal prices by 58 per cent and international pet coke prices by 38 per cent on-year. As a result, profitability is expected to recover in fiscal 2024, with a 300-350 bps expansion, reaching 17 per cent.

Raw material costs, however, are expected to remain range-bound in fiscal 2025, with better availability of fly ash and slag limiting any significant increase. However, auctioning of limestone mines at premium bids should limit a sharper decline in raw material prices. The waning input costs are expected to lead to a further 100-150 bps margin expansion in fiscal 2025 to 18-20 per cent despite tapering realizations. The pace of key construction projects, the impact of monsoon on agricultural profitability, and the volatility of crude oil and coal prices due to geopolitical uncertainties will bear watching as these can swing profitability.

Continue Reading

Economic

Uttar Pradesh Boosts Industrial Land Bank to 25,000 Acres

Published

on

UPSIDA, the state nodal agency, has acquired 25,000 acres of land across 75 districts, facilitating specialized industrial clusters like the recent allocation in Lalitpur for a bulk drug park, as part of Uttar Pradesh’s strategic industrial development agenda.

In a bid to accelerate economic growth and foster industrial development, the Uttar Pradesh government has embarked on an ambitious journey to transform the state into a trillion-dollar economy by 2027. Anchored by a strategic land acquisition drive and innovative policy interventions, Uttar Pradesh aims to emerge as a leading hub for industries, particularly focusing on pharmaceuticals, generic medicines, and medical devices in South Asia.

The state nodal agency, UP State Industrial Development Authority (UPSIDA), has spearheaded the acquisition of 25,000 acres of land across 75 districts, setting the stage for prompt allotment to industries. Recent allocations in Lalitpur district for a bulk drug park highlight the state’s commitment to fostering specialized industrial clusters. According to UPSIDA Chief Executive Officer Mayur Maheshwari, acquisitions have been strategically executed in various districts including Hathras, Hardoi, Prayagraj, and Lucknow, among others, with plans for further expansion.

The introduction of e-auctioning of plots by UPSIDA has significantly enhanced transparency and efficiency in the allocation process, leading to a notable increase in plot allotments from 191 in 2017-18 to 693 in 2023-24. This surge in activity has also translated into substantial revenue growth, with operating revenue doubling from Rs 615 crore in 2018-19 to Rs 1,359 crore in 2023-24.

Moreover, the state government has prioritized inclusive industrial development by focusing on women-centric facilities under initiatives like the Atal Industrial Infrastructure Mission (AIIM) and Safe Industrial Area Projects. These efforts aim to bolster female participation and employment within industrial parks, thus fostering a more diverse and inclusive workforce.

In parallel, Uttar Pradesh is set to establish mini-industrial clusters in rural areas, aiming to stimulate economic activities and generate employment opportunities. Micro, Small, and Medium Enterprises (MSME) Minister Rakesh Sachan emphasized the utilization of Gram Sabha land for industrial purposes, with plans to set up 25,000 units in rural hinterlands. Incentives such as 100% stamp duty waivers and streamlined allotment processes underscore the government’s commitment to catalyzing rural industrialization and stemming youth migration.

Furthermore, the state’s focus on boosting MSME exports to Rs 3 trillion underscores the pivotal role of small and medium enterprises in driving economic growth. With MSMEs contributing 60% to UP’s annual industrial output, they form the backbone of the state’s ‘Make in UP’ agenda, complementing traditional industries such as Banarasi silk saris, carpets, leather goods, and wooden products, among others.

The concerted efforts by the Yogi Adityanath government reflect a holistic approach towards fostering industrial growth, employment generation, and economic prosperity. By leveraging its vast land bank, implementing transparent allocation processes, and prioritizing inclusive development, Uttar Pradesh is poised to emerge as a beacon of industrial excellence, propelling India towards its trillion-dollar economy aspirations.

Continue Reading

Entertainment

Hindi film industry sees 6% cinema growth in 2023

Published

on

In 2023, India witnessed a modest increase in the number of movie screens, with Hindi-speaking regions leading the growth, followed by the east and south, as per the latest FICCI-EY media and entertainment industry report. Despite the pandemic-induced challenges, the country’s cinema landscape showed signs of recovery, with the total number of screens surpassing 2018 levels. However, the expansion remains heavily skewed towards certain regions like Delhi NCR, Maharashtra, and Bengaluru, leaving states like Bihar, Uttar Pradesh, and Odisha relatively underserved. High real estate costs and audience disconnect with contemporary movie themes contribute to this imbalance. Multiplex chains are eyeing expansion into untapped markets, awaiting infrastructure development for further growth.

India’s cinema industry, renowned globally for its diverse and vibrant film culture, has faced various challenges in recent years. The COVID-19 pandemic dealt a severe blow to the sector, forcing many theatres to shut down temporarily or permanently. The subsequent restrictions on movie releases and audience capacity further exacerbated the situation. Despite these setbacks, the gradual reopening of theatres and the resurgence of audience interest in cinematic experiences have injected a sense of optimism into the industry.

The increase in the number of movie screens in 2023, albeit modest, reflects a positive trend amidst adversity. The growth, particularly in Hindi-speaking markets, underscores the resilience of regional film industries and their ability to adapt to changing circumstances. The rise in screens in the east and south also signifies the importance of these regions in the overall cinematic landscape of the country.

However, the disparity in screen distribution across different states remains a notable challenge. While states like Maharashtra and Karnataka boast a significant number of screens, others such as Bihar and Jharkhand lag behind. This imbalance not only limits access to cinema for residents of these regions but also hampers the growth potential of the industry as a whole.

One of the primary factors contributing to this imbalance is the high cost of real estate, especially in urban centers where multiplexes are typically located. The exorbitant prices make it economically unviable for cinema operators to establish new theatres in smaller towns and cities. As a result, the expansion of multiplex chains has been concentrated in areas with favorable infrastructure and consumer demand, leaving other regions underserved.

Moreover, audience preferences and viewing habits vary significantly across different parts of the country. While metropolitan cities may have a diverse audience that appreciates a wide range of film genres and languages, smaller towns and rural areas often have more limited tastes. This disparity in preferences influences the type of content that filmmakers produce and the distribution strategies adopted by distributors and exhibitors.

In recent years, there has been a growing focus on catering to the preferences of urban audiences, particularly those in metropolitan areas. Films targeting the multiplex-going demographic, featuring niche genres and unconventional storytelling, have gained prominence. However, this trend has also led to a neglect of audiences in non-metro regions, where traditional, mainstream cinema continues to dominate. To address these challenges and promote inclusive growth, industry stakeholders must adopt a holistic approach that takes into account the diverse needs and aspirations of audiences across the country.

This includes exploring innovative business models, leveraging technology to enhance the cinematic experience, and investing in infrastructure development in underserved regions. Additionally, government intervention and policy support are crucial in facilitating the expansion of the cinema industry and ensuring equitable access to entertainment opportunities. Incentives for multiplex operators to establish theatres in non-metro areas, subsidies for the development of cinema infrastructure, and initiatives to promote regional cinema can help bridge the gap and foster a more inclusive film ecosystem.

Ultimately, the growth of India’s cinema industry hinges on its ability to embrace diversity, adapt to evolving consumer preferences, and overcome geographical and socioeconomic barriers. By addressing these challenges collectively and collaboratively, stakeholders can unlock the full potential of the country’s rich cinematic heritage and drive sustainable growth for the future.

Continue Reading

Business

RIL net profit falls1.8% to Rs 18,951 cr yoy, revenue up 10.8 % on O2C, consumer biz

Published

on

Reliance Industries on Monday posted a net profit of Rs 18,951 crore in the March quarter (Q4) of FY24, a 1.8 per cent decrease in its net profit compared to the previous year but revenue at Rs 264,834 crore grew 10.8 per cent year-on-year, supported by double-digit growth in oil to chemical and consumer business. Furthermore, EBITDA saw a yoy growth of 16.1 per cent, reaching Rs 178,677 crore with positive contribution from all key operating segments. The conglomerate also announced an interim dividend Rs 10 per equity share for the financial year ended 31 March, 2024.

On an annual basis, RIL’s gross revenue at Rs 1,000,122 crore (USD 119.9 billion), was up 2.6 per cent yoy, supported by continued growth momentum in consumer businesses and upstream business. Revenue for JPL increased by 11.7 per cent yoy, led by robust subscriber growth of 42.4 million across mobility and homes and benefit of mix improvement in ARPU. Revenue for RRVL grew by 17.8 per cent yoy with strong growth across all consumption baskets, gross area addition of 15.6 million square feet and record footfalls of over a one billion.

Mukesh D. Ambani, Chairman and Managing Director, RIL, attributed “remarkable contribution” of initiatives across RIL’s businesses towards fostering growth of various sectors of the Indian economy with all segments posting robust financial and operating performance. “This has helped the company achieve multiple milestones. I am happy to share that this year, Reliance became the first Indian company to cross the Rs 100,000-crore threshold in pre-tax profits,” said Ambani.

The March quarter financial results on 22 April show that while JIO platforms (JPL) EBITDA increased 12.8 per cent with higher revenue and margin improvement, Reliance retail (RRVL) EBITDA increased sharply by 28.5 per cent with margin expansion of 60 bps to 8.4 per cent. Oil and gas EBITDA increased sharply by 48.6 per cent, led by higher gas and condensate production with the commissioning of the MJ field during the year. Revenue for O2C decreased by 5.0 per cent primarily on account of lower product price realization following a 13.5 per cent yoy decline in average Brent crude oil prices. This was partially offset by higher volumes. Revenue from oil and gas segment increased significantly by 48.0 per cent mainly on account of higher volumes from KG D6 block (which was up 56.8 per cent, despite lower gas price realization from KG D6 field.

Strong demand for fuels globally, and limited flexibility in refining system worldwide, supported margins and profitability of the O2C segment. Downstream chemical industry experienced increasingly challenging market conditions through the year but maintaining leading product positions and feedstock flexibility through the operating model that prioritizes cost management, we delivered a resilient performance. The KG-D6 block has achieved 30 MMSCMD of production and now accounts for 30 per cent of India’s domestic gas production.

Finance costs of RIL increased by 18.1 per cent yoy to ₹ 23,118 crore (USD 2.8 billion) due to higher liability balances and higher market interest rates. Tax Expenses increased by 26.2 per cent yoy to ₹ 25,707 crore on account of utilization of tax credits in the previous financial year. Profit after tax increased by 7.3 per cent yoy to ₹ 79,020 crore.

Performance of the digital services segment has been boosted by accelerated expansion of the subscriber base, supported by both mobility and fixed wireless services. With over 108 million True 5G customers, Jio truly leads the 5G transformation in India.

Continue Reading

Trending