The Indian stock market continued its upward trajectory on Friday’s session, with the Nifty reaching a new high of 22,775.70 points, surpassing its previous record of 22,768 points. The Nifty closed at 22,753.80 points, while the Sensex ended 0.47% higher at 75,038.15 points. All major indices, including Nifty Midcap, Nifty Bank, Nifty Next 50, and Nifty Financial Services, closed in the green.

The Nifty Midcap 100 index also hit an all-time high of 50,443.15 points, closing at 50,380.40 points. Sanjiv Bhasin, Director at IIFL Securities, predicts that the market may touch the 85,000 mark by the end of the year, but warns of potential sharper corrections in the coming months. He attributes the current market highs to the reforms implemented during the Modi government’s tenure over the last decade.

Dhirendra Kumar, CEO of Value Research, emphasizes the significant contribution of reforms to the stock market and the economy, attributing the journey to the remarkable milestone of 75,000 to digitization. In broader market movements, the BSE MidCap index outperformed, gaining 0.7%, while the SmallCap index registered a 0.3% increase. Among the Nifty 50 stocks, 32 closed in the green, with Coal India emerging as the top gainer. Globally, European markets experienced an uptick fuelled by positive developments in the technology sector and rising commodity prices.

Investor focus is now directed towards forthcoming inflation data in the United States, offering insights into the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy stance. Despite mixed global cues, the Indian stock market witnessed healthy buying across sectors, supported by expectations of rate cuts, healthy corporate earnings, and political stability post the Lok Sabha elections. Technical analysts suggest that the Nifty may target the 22,850-23,100 zone, with strong support expected in the 22,350-22,500 zone in case of profit-taking.

However, market participants are advised to plan their positions cautiously amid stock-specific volatility triggered by the beginning of the earnings season.

The market capitalization of BSE-listed companies hit a historic milestone, surpassing Rs 401.10 trillion on Monday morning, driven by a remarkable rally in equities. This marks the first instance of BSE-listed companies crossing the coveted Rs 400 trillion mark, fuelled by the 30-share BSE Sensex scaling its lifetime peak.

The Sensex benchmark surged by 425.62 points, reaching a new record high of 74,673.84 in early trade. This surge propelled the market capitalization of BSE-listed firms to an unprecedented Rs 4,01,16,018.89 crore ($4.81 trillion).

This achievement comes on the heels of the market capitalization hitting the Rs 300 trillion mark in July last year. Notable gainers from the Sensex basket included Mahindra & Mahindra, Maruti, Tata Steel, Bajaj Finserv, Power Grid, Reliance Industries, Axis Bank, and JSW Steel, while Wipro, Nestle, HDFC Bank, and Bajaj Finance lagged behind.

In the global context, Asian markets witnessed mixed performances, with Seoul and Tokyo trading positively, while Shanghai and Hong Kong quoted lower. Wall Street ended on a positive note on Friday.

Meanwhile, Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) injected Rs 1,659.27 crore into equities on Friday, as per exchange data. Additionally, the global oil benchmark Brent crude witnessed a 1.36 percent decline, settling at $89.93 a barrel.

Indian benchmark indices soared to all-time highs during the trading session, with the Nifty touching a peak of 22,697.30 and the Sensex reaching 74,869.30 points. By the end of the trading session, the Nifty closed at 22,666.30, up by 152.60 points, while the Sensex closed at 74,742.50, surging by 494.28 points.

Market experts like Ajay Bagga attribute the bullish trend in Indian markets to domestic inflows, strong macroeconomic indicators, and expectations of policy continuity. Sector-wise, Nifty Auto, Nifty Realty, and Nifty Metal witnessed notable gains, while the Nifty PSU Bank index experienced a decline.

Globally, equities saw an upward momentum as oil prices retreated from recent highs, and European stocks displayed mixed performances. The surge in spot gold prices to a new record high at USD 2,353.80 an ounce indicates investor interest in safe-haven assets amidst market uncertainties.

The unprecedented milestone in market capitalization reflects the resilience and optimism in the Indian equity market, driven by both domestic and global factors.

Furthermore, the rally in auto stocks was fueled by positive growth in auto sales, as reported by the Federation of Automobile Dealers Associations (FADA), indicating a sustained recovery in the sector. The broader market witnessed a mixed trend, with the BSE MidCap index edging up by 0.26 percent and the SmallCap index experiencing a slight decline of 0.06 percent.

Sector-wise, Nifty Auto surged over 2 percent, followed by gains in Nifty Realty (up 1.32 percent) and Nifty Metal (up 1 percent). However, the Nifty PSU Bank index saw a decline of 0.86 percent.

Globally, equities displayed upward momentum as oil prices retreated from recent highs. European stocks showed mixed performances, with the STOXX 600 up by 0.05 percent, Germany’s DAX rising by 0.38 percent, and the UK’s FTSE 100 slightly lower by 0.19 percent. In the US, S&P 500 futures and Nasdaq futures dipped by 0.2 percent.

Spot gold reached a new record high at USD 2,353.80 an ounce, reflecting investor interest in safe-haven assets amid market uncertainties. The recent surge in oil prices due to geopolitical tensions eased following progress in truce talks in the Middle East, contributing to Brent crude’s decline to USD 90.20 a barrel.

According to analysts, global trends, macroeconomic data releases, and the commencement of the earnings season will be the primary factors influencing equity markets during a shortened trading week due to the observance of Eid-Ul-Fitr, which will result in market closure on Thursday. Additionally, market direction will be influenced by the trading behavior of foreign investors, trends in the rupee-dollar exchange rate, and movements in crude oil prices.

“Indian companies are set to enter a new corporate earnings Q4 season this week. Leading the pack is IT services giant TCS, set to kick off the earnings season for the quarter ending March 2024.

“Its results for the fourth quarter of FY24 will be announced on April 12, 2024, after market trading hours. Apart from that India’s industrial production data will also be announced on 12th April 2024. On the same day, inflation for March will be declared,” said Santosh Meena, Head of Research, Swastika Investmart Ltd.

Investors will closely monitor the movement of the rupee against the dollar, crude oil prices, and investment activities of Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) and Domestic Institutional Investors (DIIs), Meena added.

Last week, the BSE benchmark climbed 596.87 or 0.81 percent. It hit an all-time high of 74,501.73 on April 4.

“The outlook for the market will be guided by major global and domestic economic data, India’s CPI data and IIP, US consumer inflation, US business optimism index, US initial jobless claims and ECB (European Central Bank) interest rate decision,” Arvinder Singh Nanda, Senior Vice President, of Master Capital Services Ltd, said.

Ajit Mishra, SVP – Technical Research, Religare Broking Ltd, said this week marks the beginning of the earnings season and the focus will be on the IT majors to start with.

Four of the top 10 most valued firms witnessed a notable surge in their market capitalization, collectively adding Rs 1,71,309.28 crore. Leading this upward trend were HDFC Bank and the Life Insurance Corporation of India (LIC), emerging as the top gainers in line with the overall positive sentiment in the equity market. Conversely, six companies within the top 10 pack experienced a combined decrease of Rs 78,127.48 crore in their market valuation, with Reliance Industries being the primary contributor to these losses.

During the week, the BSE benchmark index climbed by 596.87 points or 0.81 percent, reaching an all-time high of 74,501.73 on April 4. Among the gainers from the top 10 firms were Tata Consultancy Services (TCS), HDFC Bank, State Bank of India, and LIC. Meanwhile, Reliance Industries, ICICI Bank, Bharti Airtel, Infosys, ITC, and Hindustan Unilever faced declines in their market valuation.

HDFC Bank witnessed a significant increase of Rs 76,880.74 crore, reaching a valuation of Rs 11,77,065.34 crore, while LIC added Rs 49,208.48 crore, bringing its valuation to Rs 6,27,692.77 crore. TCS observed a rise of Rs 34,733.64 crore, reaching Rs 14,39,836.02 crore in market capitalization, and State Bank of India’s valuation increased by Rs 10,486.42 crore, reaching Rs 6,82,152.71 crore.

On the other hand, Reliance Industries experienced a decline of Rs 38,462.95 crore, reaching Rs 19,75,547.68 crore in valuation. Bharti Airtel saw a decrease of Rs 21,206.58 crore, reaching Rs 6,73,831.90 crore, and ICICI Bank’s valuation dropped by Rs 9,458.25 crore, reaching Rs 7,60,084.40 crore. Infosys’ market valuation declined by Rs 7,996.54 crore to Rs 6,14,120.84 crore, ITC’s valuation dipped by Rs 873.93 crore to Rs 5,34,158.81 crore, and Hindustan Unilever’s mcap decreased by Rs 129.23 crore to Rs 5,32,816.81 crore.

Reliance Industries maintained its position as the most valued domestic firm by market valuation, followed by TCS, HDFC Bank, ICICI Bank, State Bank of India, Bharti Airtel, LIC, Infosys, ITC, and Hindustan Unilever.

On April 4, domestic stock indices, the Sensex and the Nifty, rebounded from intraday losses to close higher, bolstered by gains in private banking and technology stocks. The Sensex surged by 350.81 points or 0.47 percent to reach 74,227.63, while the Nifty climbed 80.00 points or 0.36 percent to settle at 22,514.70. Market breadth favored gainers, with around 2,337 shares advancing, 1,352 shares declining, and 115 shares remaining unchanged.

Earlier in the day, both indices had achieved all-time highs, with the Sensex hitting 74,501 and the Nifty reaching 22,619.

Analysts at ICICI Securities recommended investors to capitalize on quality stocks during dips ahead of the earnings season. They expressed optimism, projecting a gradual ascent of the Nifty towards 22,900 in the upcoming weeks. The index’s recent healthy retracement is seen as setting the stage for the next upward movement.

VK Vijayakumar, Chief Investment Strategist at Geojit Financial Services, anticipated a period of consolidation in the market in the coming days, with a focus shifting towards fourth-quarter results. Vijayakumar highlighted expectations of positive results particularly in sectors such as autos, capital goods, telecom, and select pharmaceuticals. Financial sectors are also anticipated to report robust results, despite potential net interest margin (NIM) compression. However, he cautioned that the information technology sector might witness tepid results, emphasizing that management commentary will be pivotal.

Meanwhile, broader markets saw gains, with the Nifty Midcap 100 and Nifty Smallcap 100 indices rising by up to 0.5 percent. India VIX, a measure of market volatility, declined over a percent to 11.2.

Sector-wise, Bank Nifty, which holds significant weightage in the benchmark Nifty, surged by over a percent, driven by strong performance from HDFC Bank. Conversely, Nifty Oil & Gas emerged as the worst-performing sector, weighed down by ONGC and Oil India. This downturn followed the Indian government’s announcement of a fifth increase in windfall tax on petroleum crude to Rs 6,800 a metric tonne from Rs 4,900 since February.

Looking ahead, market focus shifts to the Reserve Bank of India’s (RBI) monetary policy decision on April 5. Market experts anticipate a status quo in key rates, with the majority expecting the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) to maintain its policy stance of withdrawing accommodation. Any alteration in the RBI’s stance will be closely monitored, with implications for potential rate actions. Other factors such as inflation trends, liquidity measures, and GDP growth targets will also be scrutinized.

As the price of pure gold approaches the Rs 70,000 per 10-gram threshold, customers have noticeably withdrawn from the market. Within just a single month, prices in Mumbai’s Zaveri Bazaar have surged nearly 10 percent, reaching approximately Rs 68,500 per 10 grams. The Mumbai spot market now reflects a significant discount of $15-20 per ounce or Rs 400-550 per 10 grams, a consequence of the steep price escalation within the past month.

Gold imports, which stood at approximately 100 tonnes in February, experienced a sharp decline in March, with industry estimates suggesting a mere 25 tonnes were imported. Jewellers are closely monitoring the upcoming marriage season and the demand for Akshaya Tritiya in the first week of May. While they are gearing up to meet potential demand if gold prices decrease, the fabrication of jewellery has been impacted. Additionally, the movement of gold has been constrained due to heightened vigilance during the election code of conduct.

Bhargava Vaidya, a consultant in the bullion industry, noted, “Marriage demand in India has remained steady, or perhaps slightly increased in value terms. However, with escalating prices, demand has dwindled in terms of quantity. At the current price level, this trend in demand is expected to persist.”

A decade ago, the price of gold stood at Rs 28,430 per 10 grams, marking a 141 percent increase, translating to a compounding annual return of 9.2 percent. This substantial return is reshaping market demand. Surendra Mehta, National Secretary of the Indian Bullion and Jewellers Association, acknowledged the current trend of customers staying away from the market, stating, “The preference for jewellery is gradually shifting towards coins, bars, and other gold investment avenues.”

This shift is particularly noticeable in the preference of men over women in gold investment. Although jewellery still holds a higher share in total demand, sovereign gold bonds and exchange-traded funds have emerged as viable alternatives for gold investors. With rising prices affecting demand in terms of quantity, low-caratage jewellery is now preferred. Mehta anticipates a cascading effect of the record-high prices in the future, suggesting that “more and more people will view gold as an investment avenue, thereby reinstating its status as a store of value.”

Vaidya echoes this sentiment, emphasizing the importance of gold in investment portfolios amidst price fluctuations of 10-15 percent. He recommends investors allocate 10-15 percent of their portfolio to gold.

The upcoming Akshaya Tritiya in May is poised to be a significant event for gold demand. Jewellers are preparing to reduce their jewellery stocks during this period, hoping for a moderation in prices beforehand. Market insiders speculate that customers might return if international gold prices retreat to around $2,100.

The high prices are posing challenges for jewellers in various ways. Speaking anonymously, a prominent jeweller revealed that the stock of gold jewellery across national stores is estimated to be around 300-400 tonnes, significantly increasing their inventory costs compared to a decade ago when it was only 100 tonnes. This surge in inventory is attributed to the expansion of retail chains. Traditionally, demand has been centered around 22-carat jewellery, but high prices may prompt a shift towards 18-carat jewellery. There’s even a possibility of increased demand for 14-carat jewellery. In light of these circumstances, the demand during Akshaya Tritiya will be pivotal for jewellers.