Experts see minimal impact on Indian pump prices, stalemate over IMEC - Business Guardian
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Experts see minimal impact on Indian pump prices, stalemate over IMEC

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The impact of Iran-Israel conflict on India does not cover a rise in petrol prices in India even as experts see a likely continuation of shipping disruptions at Red Sea and the India Middle East Corridor project remaining on paper. With Iran finally striking Israel with drones and missiles over the weekend, tensions continued to mount in the global landscape. However, Asian markets were trading on Monday morning as market participants looked confident of a truce in the Middle East after the Biden administration urged Israel not to take retaliatory action against Iran, according to Avdhut Bagkar Technical and Derivatives Analyst, StoxBox, an investment advisory firm.

A report by the Global Trade Research Initiative suggests a deeper unrest as India’s trade problems due to shipping disruption in the Red Sea may aggravate because of the fresh conflict between Iran and Israel. The instability in West Asia could force projects like the IMEC Trade corridor to remain on paper for long time. The tensions might not affect petrol prices in India, says GTRI. Bagkar points out that the oil and gas sector index was up 0.5 per cent amidst several Indian equity indices opening lower and remaining weak throughout Monday, tracking weak cues from global markets. Investors also fretted about escalating tensions between Iran and Israel and its potential impact on crude oil prices, inflation, and the likelihood of rate cuts.

On a positive note, the ongoing conflict is unlikely to disrupt crude oil and gas production significantly, according to GTRI insights, since major producers like the USA, Russia and North Sea operators are not in the conflict zone and Saudi Arabia has not been directly involved. However, shipping disruptions in the Red Sea, which have forced longer routes around Cape of Good Hope for trade with Europe and North America’s east coast, might lead to higher oil and gas prices. In India, the impact on consumers may be minimal as the Government could offset price increases by reducing taxes, suggests the GTRI report.

On a larger canvas, the conflict may imperil the IMEC project. The ongoing conflict has put the IMEC — a major strategic initiative intended to enhance connectivity between India, the Gulf and Europe – on uncertain footing. Stability required for such projects is currently undermined by the volatile situation, especially with key players like Saudi Arabia, pivotal to the corridor, caught in the regional tensions. What is at stake is India’s trade with Iran and Israel — both at modest levels – which would continue to be vulnerable. Merchandise exports and imports from Israel for FY2023 were USD 8.4 billion and USD 2.3 billion respectively, leading to a merchandise trade surplus of USD 6.1 billion. India’s key exports to Israel are diesel which accounts for USD 5.5 billion and cut and polished diamonds worth USD 1.2 billion.

India’s key imports from Israel are rough diamonds to the tune of USD 519 million and cut and polished diamonds worth USD 220 million as well as electronics and telecom components like ICs, parts of photovoltaic cells of USD 411 million, potassium chloride of USD 105 million and herbicide (USD 6 million.

In 2023, India’s trade with Iran included merchandise exports worth USD 1.7 billion and imports of USD 672 million. Key exports from India to Iran were rice to the order of USD 1.03 billion, organic chemicals of USD 113 million and key imports from Iran were methenol at USD 176 million and petroleum coke of USD 85 million. Trade with Iran and Israel are at higher risk due to potential escalations and disruptions in maritime security affecting red sea shipping routes.

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Politics

Modi Govt aims to revive 14 closed sugar mills: Bihar Deputy CM

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Bihar Deputy Chief Minister Samrat Choudhary on Sunday said that the Modi government was working to restart 14 sugar mills that were closed in the past.

Bihar’s Deputy Chief Minister, Samrat Choudhary, asserted on Sunday that efforts were underway by the Modi government to revive 14 sugar mills that had been shut down previously. Accusing Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD) leader Lalu Yadav of prioritizing his family over public welfare, Choudhary remarked, “Lalu Yadav, being incarcerated, seems to have forgotten about the ongoing initiatives to reopen the 14 sugar mills by the Modi government. His focus remains solely on his family affairs, including his controversial ‘tourist daughter’ and the return of his entire family, emblematic of his past ‘jungle raj’ reign. This resurgence is credited to PM Modi and CM Nitish Kumar.”

Earlier, Lalu Yadav had inquired with Prime Minister Narendra Modi through X platform regarding the status of the promise made in 2014 regarding the reopening of the sugar mills. Lalu Yadav wrote, “You said in 2014, right… I will get the sugar mill reopened and drink tea made from the sugar produced in this mill. It’s been ten years. What happened to your promise? The Prime Minister who cannot open a small sugar mill in the state as per his promise, a Prime Minister who could not fulfil even one iota of his tall promises in the last ten years, starting from special state status, what benefit will Bihar get if such a Prime Minister roams from street to street and performs street plays?”

PM Narendra Modi is set to hold a roadshow in Patna this evening. With 40 Lok Sabha constituencies, fourth highest among all States and Union Territories, Bihar holds a crucial position in shaping Indian politics. On April 19, in the first phase the polling was held in four constituencies–Aurangabad, Gaya, Jamui and Nawada with 49.26 per cent voter turnout.

In the second phase, the polling was held in five constituencies–Banka, Bhagalpur, Katihar, Kishanganj and Purnia with 59.45 per cent voter turnout on April 26.

In the third phase of elections on May 7, Bihar’s Jhanjharpur, Supaul, Araria, Madhepura and Khagaria went to polls and the state recorded 58.18 per cent voter turnout.

The Mahagathbandhan (Grand Alliance), the opposition coalition in Bihar, including Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD), Congress, and Left parties, recently announced that the RJD, its largest constituent, will contest 26 out of the state’s 40 Lok Sabha seats.

As part of the NDA, BJP and JD(U) will contest on 17 and 16 seats respectively. In 2019, BJP-led NDA swept the state by winning 39 out of 40 seats, while Congress won just one seat. RJD, a formidable force in the state failed to open its account.

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International Relations

Canada welcomes India’s decision to resume some visa service

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Canada has expressed its approval of India’s decision to resume some visa services in the country, marking a positive step forward in diplomatic relations following a recent dispute. The move, announced by India’s high commission in Canada, comes after a temporary suspension of visa services that had caused concern among Canadians.

This diplomatic tension stemmed from allegations made by Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau regarding the potential involvement of Indian agents in the killing of Khalistani extremist Hardeep Singh Nijjar. India had designated Nijjar as a terrorist in 2020 and strongly refuted Trudeau’s claims, dismissing them as “absurd” and “motivated.”

The suspension of visa services had affected both Canadians applying from within Canada and Canadian citizens abroad. However, with India’s decision to resume visa processing, there is hope for improved relations between the two nations. Canada welcomed this development as a “good sign,” marking the end of what had been described as “an anxious time” for many Canadians.

The announcement from India’s high commission in Canada came a month after the suspension of visa services. The diplomatic tensions that led to this suspension were a result of the allegations made by Prime Minister Trudeau. The Canadian leader had raised concerns about the potential involvement of Indian agents in the killing of Hardeep Singh Nijjar, which occurred on June 18 in British Columbia. The killing of Nijjar, whom India had designated as a terrorist, had stirred up emotions and led to a war of words between the two nations.

Immigration Minister Marc Miller expressed his relief at India’s decision to resume visa services, describing it as a positive sign after a tense period. He acknowledged that the suspension of these services had created fear in many communities due to the concerning diplomatic situation between Canada and India.

Emergency Preparedness Minister Harjit Sajjan, who is also of Sikh descent, recognized the significance of the resumption of visa processing for Canadians. He refrained from speculating about the message India intended to convey with this decision, emphasizing the importance of allowing Indians and Canadians to travel for events such as weddings and funerals. Additionally, Sajjan reiterated that Ottawa continued to seek India’s assistance in the investigation of Hardeep Singh Nijjar’s killing.

India’s decision to resume visa services will apply to several categories, including entry visas, business visas, medical visas, and conference visas. This move was seen as a positive step in fostering people-to-people ties and facilitating travel between the two countries.

Marilyne Guevremont, a spokesperson for Global Affairs Canada (GAC), which oversees Canada’s diplomatic and consular relations, acknowledged India’s decision and highlighted the importance of the strong people-to-people ties between the two nations. Guevremont expressed the belief that the resumption of visa services would ease travel for families and businesses moving between Canada and India.

The Canada-India Business Council also welcomed the development, viewing it as a promising step forward in trade relations. The council emphasized the significance of both governments supporting bilateral business and investments, particularly during these challenging times.

The decision to resume visa services followed Canada’s decision to withdraw 41 of its diplomats from India, reflecting the heightened tensions between the two nations. Prior to Prime Minister Trudeau’s announcement, India had publicly denounced protests by Sikh separatist groups outside its diplomatic missions in Canada. Furthermore, posters had appeared that seemed to offer cash rewards in exchange for the home addresses of Indian diplomats, causing significant concern in India.

India had formally called on Canada to better uphold its duty to protect foreign diplomats and urged the country to take strong action against terrorists and anti-India elements operating within its borders. The suspension of visa services for Canadians was one of the measures India had implemented in response to these concerns.

In conclusion, India’s decision to resume visa services for Canadians is a positive development in the ongoing diplomatic relations between the two countries. While the recent tensions had strained their ties, both nations now have an opportunity to rebuild and strengthen their relationship. The resumption of visa services not only benefits individuals and businesses but also signifies a step toward improved cooperation and understanding between Canada and India.

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Politics

More Voters Cast Ballots Despite “Low Turnout” Claims, Says SBI Research

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Despite concerns of declining voter engagement by percentage turnout, analysis underscores the importance of evaluating voting patterns by absolute numbers, revealing a significant increase with 20.7 crore voters in 2024 compared to 20.6 crore in 2019.

In the first two phases of the Lok Sabha polls 2024, a notable increase in voter turnout has been observed, debunking earlier concerns regarding low participation. According to a report by SBI Research titled ‘WHITE NOISE: A J-SHAPED voting on the anvil’, approximately 8.7 lakh additional voters exercised their franchise compared to the first two phases of the 2019 elections, marking a 0.4% increase.

Contrary to the perceived decline in voter engagement based on percentage turnout, the analysis emphasizes the significance of assessing voting patterns based on absolute numbers. Provisionally, a total of 20.7 crore voters cast their votes in 2024 compared to 20.6 crore in 2019, highlighting a substantial rise in voter participation. Furthermore, the report highlights a positive trend in parliamentary constituencies, with 60% showing either an increase or maintenance of votes cast. Notably, an encouraging trend is observed in reserved constituencies, with 70% of the additional voters recorded in 42 reserved (SC+ST) constituencies.

In terms of state-wise trends, Karnataka leads in the number of increased voters in 2024, followed by Assam and Maharashtra. A granular analysis of constituencies reveals that more than 1 lakh additional voters participated in 85 constituencies, while 25 constituencies maintained status quo.

While the percentage turnout in the first two phases of 2024 trails behind 2019 by approximately 3.1%, the absolute number of voters paints a different picture, hinting at a potential reversal of the declining trend observed in the previous elections.

With the completion of the third phase on May 7th, covering over half of the parliamentary constituencies, a comprehensive analysis of voter turnout dynamics is expected.

Factors such as scorching summer temperatures and heat waves are considered to have potentially affected voter turnout, despite the earnest efforts of the Election Commission of India to encourage participation.

General elections are going on in seven phases from April 19 to June 1, with vote counting scheduled for June 4.

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International Affairs

Hirokazu Matsuno allegedly received 10 million yen in kickbacks

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Matsuno belongs to the ruling Liberal Democratic Party’s largest faction, formerly headed by Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, which has been recently suspected to have pooled secret funds amounting to over 100 million yen.

In a recent development that has sent shockwaves through Japanese politics, Chief Cabinet Secretary Hirokazu Matsuno, a prominent member of the ruling Liberal Democratic Party’s (LDP) largest faction, is under scrutiny for allegedly receiving over 10 million yen (USD 70,000) in kickbacks from fundraising events organized by his party group. The revelation comes amidst suspicions of various LDP factions amassing secret funds exceeding 100 million yen, signaling a potential scandal that could have far-reaching consequences for the political landscape.

The information, disclosed by a source close to the matter and reported by Kyodo News, a reputable non-profit cooperative news agency based in Minato, Tokyo, has intensified concerns about corruption within the highest echelons of Japanese politics. Matsuno, who belongs to the faction formerly headed by Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, addressed the media at a regular press conference on Friday, vehemently denying any intention to resign.

“I will continue to fulfill my duties with a sense of responsibility,” Matsuno asserted, asserting that his faction is actively engaged in verifying the facts surrounding the allegations. However, the scandal has triggered a wave of investigations by prosecutors, following a criminal complaint that accuses five LDP factions, including Prime Minister Fumio Kishida’s group, of underreporting their revenue from political fundraising parties.

Traditionally, LDP factions have set quotas for their lawmakers to sell party tickets, typically priced at 20,000 yen. Investigative sources suggest that if lawmakers exceed their quotas, the surplus income is often returned as kickbacks within certain intraparty groups, creating a clandestine system of financial transactions. The Seiwaken, or the Seiwa policy study group, the largest LDP faction, reportedly collected approximately 660 million yen in party revenue over a five-year period through 2022, according to its political funds reports.

Shockingly, revelations indicate that at least ten out of the 100 lawmakers in the Seiwaken faction have received kickbacks, with some allegedly receiving sums exceeding 10 million yen. The severity of these allegations has prompted prosecutors to contemplate interrogating the implicated lawmakers once the ongoing parliamentary session concludes on December 13.

The scandal has further tarnished the image of the LDP, which has already been grappling with accusations of financial improprieties. The fact that Matsuno, a high-ranking official within the party and a key player in the government, is implicated in the scandal adds significant weight to the controversy. The allegations also cast a shadow on the faction’s former leader, Shinzo Abe, who remains a formidable figure in Japanese politics.

The involvement of prosecutors in investigating the kickback scandal underscores the gravity of the situation. The criminal complaint targeting multiple LDP factions suggests a systemic issue within the party, raising questions about the transparency and integrity of political fundraising practices in Japan.

If proven true, the scandal could have profound implications for public trust in the political system. As the investigations unfold, there is growing speculation about the potential fallout within the LDP and the wider political landscape. Calls for accountability and transparency are resonating among the public, demanding that lawmakers uphold the highest standards of integrity.

The timing of the scandal, coming at a crucial juncture in Japanese politics, adds another layer of complexity, as the government grapples with pressing domestic and international issues. The Seiwaken faction’s reported accumulation of substantial party revenue over the years brings attention to the broader issue of political financing in Japan.

The revelation that a significant portion of this revenue may have been funneled back to lawmakers as kickbacks raises concerns about the lack of oversight and accountability in the financial dealings of political factions.

In response to the allegations, Prime Minister Fumio Kishida’s office released a statement expressing concern and emphasizing the need for a thorough investigation. Kishida, who leads one of the factions under scrutiny, faces the challenging task of navigating the political fallout and ensuring that his government remains focused on addressing the pressing issues facing the nation.

The kickback scandal also raises questions about the effectiveness of existing regulations and enforcement mechanisms aimed at preventing financial misconduct in Japanese politics. If proven true, the allegations could prompt a reevaluation of these mechanisms, potentially leading to reforms to strengthen oversight and accountability in political fundraising.

The implications of the scandal extend beyond individual lawmakers and factions to the broader political culture in Japan. Public trust in political institutions is a vital component of a healthy democracy, and any erosion of that trust can have lasting consequences. The LDP, as the ruling party, faces the challenge of restoring public confidence and demonstrating a commitment to transparency and ethical conduct.

As the investigations progress, it remains to be seen how the implicated lawmakers and the LDP as a whole will respond to the allegations. The outcome of the investigations will likely shape the political landscape in the coming months, influencing public perceptions and potentially reshaping the balance of power within the ruling party.

In conclusion, the kickback scandal involving Chief Cabinet Secretary Hirokazu Matsuno has sent shockwaves through Japanese politics, revealing a potential web of financial improprieties within the ruling Liberal Democratic Party. The allegations of kickbacks, combined with suspicions of secret fund accumulation by multiple LDP factions, have ignited a firestorm of controversy that could have far-reaching implications for the political landscape in Japan. As investigations unfold, the public is keenly watching how lawmakers and party leaders respond to the allegations and whether the scandal will lead to meaningful reforms in the realm of political financing and accountability.

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Politics

Government Aiming to Enhance India’s Appeal for Manufacturing and Services: FM Sitharaman

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Speaking about inflation, she said it never crossed the tolerance band, except for one month, under the Narendra Modi government, whereas before that (pre-2014) the economy was in a bad shape and inflation was in double digits.

Union Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman on Saturday said the Centre has tailored policies to make India an attractive destination for manufacturing and services, and the aim was to produce not just for the domestic market but for exports as well. She was responding to a query on American tech billionaire Elon Musk postponing his meeting with Prime Minister Narendra Modi.

“Policies have been made to attract investments. We want manufacturers and investors to come and produce not just for India but also for exports. We will try to attract manufacturers and investors through policies,” she told reporters. Tesla CEO Musk on Saturday said his visit to India has been delayed due to the company’s heavy obligations.

“When big companies show interest to come to India, we will do everything to make it attractive for them to come and invest. In that process, if there is anything to discuss, we will certainly discuss. But whatever we have done, we have done it through policy,” Sitharaman added.

Asserting the Union government’s approach has helped especially after China plus one started being a concern for many industry experts, she said policies have been tailored in such a way so as to make India an attractive destination for manufacturing and for services.

Speaking about inflation, she said it never crossed the tolerance band, except for one month, under the Narendra Modi government, whereas before that (pre-2014) the economy was in a bad shape and inflation was in double digits. “At that time (pre 2014) nobody had any expectations from the country.

After much hard work, we have emerged as the world’s fifth largest economy and are confidently saying we will be third in the next two to two-and-half years,” the Union minister said. On employment, Sitharaman said there was lack of complete data from both the formal and informal sectors, but asserted initiatives of the Centre have ensured jobs to lakhs. “The data is inadequate. I am not saying this pride but while accepting its weakness. All I can say regarding employment is that the money given to people and startups through different schemes…people in crores have availed support. Between October 2022 and November 2023, through the Rozgar Mela, Modi has given government jobs to 10 lakh people,” she said.

When asked about the rule that requires larger companies to pay Micro, Small and Medium Enterprises (MSMEs) within 45 days of receiving goods or services, Sitharaman said the law has been existence since 2007-08 and is not new. “Later MSMEs themselves came and said the 45-day payment is not happening within that financial year. But within that financial year, this amount is shown as expenditure and to that extent tax is not being paid. All that we have done through the Finance Act that was passed in Parliament on February 1, 2023,” she said. “We just said tax treatment remains the same. Make a claim in the year you pay to the MSMEs. How can you claim when you have not made payment?” she asked.

Queried about the Indian rupee weakening against the US dollar, she said the fluctuation was due to global uncertainty, wars as well as uncertainty in supply of crude oil from the Middle East. Earlier, addressing industry leaders from Gujarat on ‘Viksit Bharat -2047’, she said 28 per cent of total capital under Production Linked Incentive (PLI) scheme has come to the state, which has shown remarkable alertness in the last 10-12 years. So semiconductor manufacturing for India comes first in Gujarat, which has a policy as well as government and ecosystem ready for manufacturing for Viksit Bharat 2047, she said.

“The IFSC at GIFT City in Gandhinagar is a big gateway for services to grow in Gujarat. A world-class financial services centre very close to Ahmedabad is just the key for India to reach that kind of global market for attracting more investment and more financial operations,” Sitharaman said. She also said Gujarat was in third position in attracting FDI in manufacturing.

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Tech

US govt agrees to provide USD 6.4B to Samsung for making computer chips

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The Biden administration has solidified a groundbreaking agreement, earmarking up to $6.4 billion in direct funding to catalyze Samsung Electronics’ establishment of a cutting-edge computer chip manufacturing and research hub in Texas. This financial injection, revealed by the Commerce Department on Monday, forms a pivotal component of an overarching investment in the cluster, projected to soar beyond $40 billion when supplemented by private capital.

This government backing emanates from the CHIPS and Science Act, a legislative cornerstone inked by President Joe Biden in 2022, aimed at reinvigorating the domestic production of sophisticated computer chips. Commerce Secretary Gina Raimondo hailed the proposed endeavor as a catalyst poised to elevate Texas into a preeminent semiconductor ecosystem. Speaking during a briefing with journalists, Raimondo underscored its pivotal role in aligning with the administration’s ambitious objective of domestically manufacturing 20% of the world’s foremost chips by the decade’s end. Anticipated job creation also looms large, with Raimondo forecasting a surge of at least 17,000 construction positions and over 4,500 manufacturing roles in the wake of the project’s realization.

Samsung’s envisaged cluster, nestled in Taylor, Texas, comprises two pivotal factories slated to churn out four- and two-nanometer chips, alongside a dedicated research and development facility and a component packaging plant. According to government timelines, the inaugural factory is slated to commence operations in 2026, with its successor following suit in 2027. The funding package also encompasses an expansion initiative targeting an extant Samsung establishment in Austin, Texas.

Lael Brainard, helming the White House National Economic Council, underscored a crucial strategic dividend stemming from Samsung’s foray into Austin: the ability to directly furnish chips to the Defense Department. In an era marked by escalating geopolitical tensions and a burgeoning rivalry between the United States and China, securing access to advanced chip technology assumes paramount significance, attested by Brainard.

In tandem with the $6.4 billion allocation, Samsung is poised to leverage an investment tax credit from the U.S. Treasury Department, further cementing the partnership’s financial underpinnings. Notably, this collaboration represents a broader trend, with the government previously delineating terms to buttress other chip behemoths such as Intel and Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. across multifarious projects dispersed across the nation.

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