Union Home Minister Amit Shah, in an exclusive interview with a leading media channel on Monday, cautioned against drawing correlations between recent stock market fluctuations and the upcoming 2024 Lok Sabha elections. Shah, a pivotal figure in India’s political landscape, advised investors to consider purchasing stocks before June 4th, the date of the Lok Sabha election results. Expressing optimism, Shah forecasted a surge in the domestic stock market in the forthcoming period.

“I can’t anticipate stock market moves. But normally whenever a stable government is formed at Centre, the market sees a rally. I see 400-plus seat wins for the Bharatiya Janata Party [BJP], a stable Modi government coming, and thus market rising,” Shah told NDTV.

Shah’s remarks came amidst the ongoing fourth phase of the general elections and a recent downturn in the benchmark Nifty index, which witnessed declines in six out of the last seven sessions. Despite prevailing market uncertainties surrounding the election results, Shah remained steadfast in his outlook.

Nomura India, in the financial realm, pointed out the likelihood of a BJP victory based on recent opinion polls, anticipating policy continuity post the 2024 general elections. According to Nomura, the government may focus on politically contentious reforms concerning land, labor, capital, judicial systems, and tax administration, among others.

MUFG Bank offered a nuanced perspective, acknowledging the prevailing consensus regarding a robust BJP performance while also highlighting increased uncertainty due to lower voter turnout in the initial phases of the elections. The bank suggested that market sentiment should remain positive over time if the BJP secures a majority of seats, with expectations of policy continuity in critical areas.

Mirae Asset highlighted the importance of the July Budget in the event of a BJP victory, emphasizing potential changes in taxation policies and agricultural schemes. The firm stressed long-term strategies, focusing on infrastructure development, agricultural reforms, and employment generation to stimulate demand from rural India.

Lastly, PhillipCapital identified a potential market rally in the event of the BJP-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA) surpassing the 400-seat target. The brokerage firm advised investors to closely monitor subsequent election phases, recognizing their potential impact on market dynamics.

“If a lower 300-330 seats for the NDA results in a knee-jerk market reaction [a fall], we would treat it as a buying opportunity. A further worsening of voter turnout in the following election phases could have a bearing on election outcome and equities – so we would keep a close watch,” the domestic brokerage said in its note.

Overall, amidst the evolving political landscape and market fluctuations, stakeholders in India’s financial markets are closely observing the ongoing Lok Sabha elections, anticipating their impact on policy continuity and market sentiment in the coming period.

The Indian stock markets exhibited impressive performance during FY 2023-24, with the Nifty 50 index delivering a significant 29% return. Data from the National Stock Exchange (NSE) reveals that Indian market growth has sustained for the eighth consecutive year, showcasing positive returns. Notably, the Indian market has not experienced negative returns since 2015, underscoring the consistent upward trend of Indian equities. Fixed Deposits (FDs) yielded approximately 7% returns last year, while Gold returns surged by 17% in FY24.

Comparing the performance of the Indian stock market with its American and European counterparts reveals India’s strong position in terms of returns. While the Nifty 50 provided a return of 29 percent, the S&P 500 index of America offered a slightly lower return of 27.9 percent. Similarly, the Euro Stoxx 50 index of Europe yielded a return of 17.8 percent only.

Ajay Bagga, a banking and market expert, stated, “Indian markets have benefited from a convergence of a strong macro environment, positive governmental policies to enhance the infrastructure and manufacturing base of the country, strong domestic institutional and household flows into the markets, and a robust IPO market. We see all of these trends continuing and creating a very long runway of outperformance for the Indian markets.”

The returns in the last year indicate that the Indian market has outperformed both the American and European markets in the fiscal year, underscoring its attractiveness as an investment destination.

Experts have highlighted that the performance of the Indian market can be attributed to various factors, including favorable economic conditions, regulatory reforms, and growing investor confidence. Additionally, as per the data by NSE, the influx of 1.8 crore new investors during FY24 reflects the increasing interest in Indian equities among both retail and institutional investors. The surge in investor participation is the second-highest recorded in a single year, indicating a broad-based bullish sentiment in the Indian market.

Harsha Upadhyaya, CIO-Equity, Kotak Mahindra AMC, emphasized, “Strong performance of Indian equities is primarily driven by robust economic growth and strong corporate earnings trajectory despite challenging global macro environment. India continues to be an ‘Oasis in the desert’ and is attracting consistent flows.”

In the Indian markets, beyond the Nifty 50 index, the performance of the Nifty Next 50 index was particularly noteworthy, with a growth rate of 60 percent during the same period.

With consistent positive returns and a growing investor base, India remains an attractive destination for domestic and international investors seeking opportunities for wealth creation and capital appreciation. As investors navigate global uncertainties, India stands out as a beacon of stability and growth in the world of finance and investments.

BSE Sensex plummeted 732.96 points to 73,878.15, NSE Nifty fell 172.35 points to 22,475.85, despite touching record highs.

Equity markets witnessed a sharp decline on Friday, with the benchmark Sensex plunging over 700 points to dip below the 74,000 mark, while the Nifty retreated from its record high. The sell-off was attributed to investors reducing exposure to telecom, capital goods, and technology stocks. Heavy selling pressure in Reliance Industries, L&T, and HDFC Bank also contributed to the indices’ downward trend. The BSE Sensex dropped by 732.96 points or 0.98% to settle at 73,878.15, after initially surging by 484.07 points earlier in the day.

The NSE Nifty also witnessed a decline of 172.35 points or 0.76% to 22,475.85, despite hitting a record high of 22,794.70 in early trade. The market’s volatility was highlighted by Ajit Mishra, SVP of Research at Religare Broking Ltd., who noted that despite a positive start driven by strong global cues, profit taking in heavyweight stocks led to significant losses by the end of the day. Stocks such as Larsen & Toubro, Maruti, Reliance Industries, and Nestle were among the major laggards, while Bajaj Finance saw a nearly 1% increase after the Reserve Bank of India lifted restrictions on its loan sanctioning and disbursal. Vinod Nair, Head of Research at Geojit Financial Services, attributed the market correction to profit booking and caution ahead of the release of the US non-farm payroll data.

However, he noted that the absence of significant negative surprises in Q4 earnings, along with a decline in oil prices, might help mitigate the downside. In the broader market, the BSE smallcap gauge declined by 0.55%, while the midcap index dipped by 0.21%. Telecommunication, realty, and services sectors witnessed notable declines, while healthcare and metal sectors were among the gainers. Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) offloaded equities worth Rs 964.47 crore on Thursday.

In Asian markets, Hong Kong settled positively, while Seoul ended lower. European markets traded in the green, and Wall Street ended with gains on Thursday. Global oil benchmark Brent crude declined slightly to USD 83.62 a barrel. On Thursday, the BSE benchmark closed with a gain of 128.33 points, while the NSE Nifty went up by 43.35 points. Investors’ cautious stance and profit-taking behaviour led to a broad-based correction in the equity market, particularly impacting large-cap stocks. Despite positive global cues, concerns over the US non-farm payroll data and volatility in oil prices contributed to the sell-off.

The lifting of restrictions on Bajaj Finance provided some relief, but overall sentiment remained subdued. The decline in FIIs’ equity offloading added to market jitters. While Asian markets showed mixed trends, European markets traded positively. The broader market witnessed sectoral declines in telecommunications, realty, and services, while healthcare and metal sectors saw gains. The market awaits further cues to gauge its direction amid ongoing uncertainty.

The combined market valuation of six of the top-10 most valued firms increased Rs 1,30,734.57 crore last week, with State Bank of India and ICICI Bank emerging as the biggest gainers in line with an overall positive trend in equities.

Last week, the BSE benchmark advanced 641.83 points or 0.87 per cent. The valuation of the State Bank of India rallied Rs 45,158.54 crore to Rs 7,15,218.40 crore. ICICI Bank’s market valuation rose Rs 28,726.33 crore to Rs 7,77,750.22 crore. Bharti Airtel added Rs 20,747.99 crore to Rs 7,51,406.35 crore, and that of ITC jumped Rs 18,914.35 crore to Rs 5,49,265.32 crore.

The market capitalisation (mcap) of Life Insurance Corporation of India (LIC) advanced by Rs 9,487.5 crore to Rs 6,24,941.40 crore, and that of Infosys went up by Rs 7,699.86 crore to Rs 5,93,636.31 crore.

However, the mcap of Reliance Industries declined by Rs 26,115.56 crore to Rs 19,64,079.96 crore. The valuation of HDFC Bank dipped by Rs 16,371.34 crore to Rs 11,46,943.59 crore. The mcap of Tata Consultancy Services went lower by Rs 5,282.41 crore to Rs 13,79,522.50 crore, and that of Hindustan Unilever Limited diminished by Rs 2,525.81 crore to Rs 5,21,961.70 crore.

Reliance Industries remained the most valued firm from the top-10 pack, followed by Tata Consultancy Services, HDFC Bank, ICICI Bank, Bharti Airtel, State Bank of India, LIC, Infosys, ITC and Hindustan Unilever.

The BSE Sensex climbed 0.16%, closing at 73,852.94, with the NSE Nifty advancing 0.15% to 22,402.40.

Equity benchmark indices Sensex and Nifty extended their gains for the fourth consecutive session on Wednesday, buoyed by buying interest in metal and commodity stocks amidst a positive global equities trend. Despite facing selling pressure in telecom, IT, and tech counters, both indices managed to close higher.

The BSE Sensex rose by 114.49 points or 0.16%, settling at 73,852.94, after touching an intraday high of 74,121.61, up by 383.16 points or 0.51%. Similarly, the NSE Nifty gained 34.40 points or 0.15% to reach 22,402.40.

Market analysts noted that while Indian markets trailed behind their Asian counterparts due to subdued Q4 earnings, the composite PMI hitting a multi-year high indicated domestic resilience. Globally, investor sentiment improved as tensions in the Middle East eased and oil prices declined.

India’s economic activity continued to expand in April, with the HSBC flash India Composite PMI rising to 62.2, driven by strong performance in the services and manufacturing sectors.

From the Sensex basket, major gainers included JSW Steel, Tata Steel, Power Grid, Kotak Mahindra Bank, UltraTech Cement, NTPC, and Bajaj Finance. On the other hand, Tata Consultancy Services, Tech Mahindra, Maruti, Reliance Industries, and Titan experienced declines.

In the broader market, the BSE smallcap index climbed by 0.79%, while the midcap index advanced by 0.92%.

Sectorally, metal stocks led the gains, climbing by 2.83%, followed by commodities (1.62%), industrials (1.13%), and oil & gas (0.96%). However, IT, telecommunication, and tech sectors witnessed declines.

Market expert Siddhartha Khemka attributed the positive global sentiment to easing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and investors’ focus on earnings. The Nifty’s upswing was supported by healthy domestic macro data and Q4 results in line with expectations.

In Asian markets, major indices including Seoul, Tokyo, Shanghai, and Hong Kong settled in positive territory. European markets also traded mostly higher, while Wall Street ended Tuesday with gains. Meanwhile, the global oil benchmark Brent crude declined by 0.35% to USD 88.11 per barrel.

Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) reportedly offloaded equities worth Rs 3,044.54 crore on Tuesday, as per exchange data.

Overall, the market’s positive trajectory reflects optimism fueled by improving economic indicators, easing geopolitical tensions, and investor confidence in corporate earnings. However, cautious optimism prevails amidst ongoing global uncertainties and the upcoming phase of Indian elections, keeping investors watchful for further developments.

Investors remain cautiously optimistic amid ongoing global uncertainties and the impending phase of Indian elections. The market’s upward momentum reflects confidence in improving economic indicators, easing geopolitical tensions, and positive corporate earnings. However, the continuous monitoring of developments both domestically and globally remains essential. As the market continues its upward trajectory, analysts advise investors to maintain a balanced approach and stay attuned to emerging trends. With the outlook influenced by various factors, including economic data releases, geopolitical developments, and corporate earnings, market participants are advised to exercise caution and prudence while navigating the dynamic landscape of financial markets.

Geopolitical events, macroeconomic data, and quarterly earnings of corporates would guide the stock market in a holiday-shortened week ahead, analysts said. Stock markets will remain closed on Wednesday for Ram Navami.

“This week promises to be crucial for the market as fresh worries about a potential conflict between Iran and Israel emerge. Any significant escalation in tensions could trigger panic selling and volatility in global equity markets. The market will also be closely monitoring the movement of crude oil prices, which are often impacted by geopolitical events,” said Santosh Meena, Head of Research, Swastika Investmart Ltd.

Investors will be watching for earnings reports from Infosys, Bajaj Auto, and Wipro later in the week, he said. On the macroeconomic front, China’s GDP data, US retail sales figures, and movements in the US bond yields and the dollar index will be important factors influencing market sentiment, Meena added.

Shares of TCS will remain in focus on Monday. The company reported its January-March quarterly earnings on Friday. The IT services major logged a 9 per cent growth in net profit at Rs 12,434 crore in the fourth quarter of FY24 due to strong domestic business even as the company struggled in its key markets overseas. In the entire fiscal year, the Tata Group company’s net profit surged 9 per cent to Rs 45,908 crore, while the revenue went up to Rs 2,40,893 crore from Rs 2,25,458 crore a year ago.

“The outlook for the market will be guided by the major global and domestic economic data, India’s WPI inflation data and WPI manufacturing data, China GDP growth rate, US manufacturing production and US initial jobless claims,” Arvinder Singh Nanda, Senior Vice President, Master Capital Services Ltd, said.

Retail inflation declined to a five-month low of 4.85 per cent in March mainly due to cooling food prices, inching towards the Reserve Bank’s target of 4 per cent, according to official data released on Friday. India’s industrial production growth accelerated to a four-month high of 5.7 per cent in February 2024 due to good performance of the mining sector, showed the government data released on Friday.

“Investors are closely monitoring Q4 earnings and geopolitical events, which are poised to shape market direction,” said Vinod Nair, Head of Research, Geojit Financial Services.

Prashanth Tapse, Senior VP (Research), Mehta Equities Ltd, said, while the Indian economy is on a firm footing, the spate of negative news, especially from the global front, would at times halt the Indian equities’ upward march.

Stock markets were closed on Thursday on account of Eid-Ul-Fitr. Last week, the BSE benchmark Sensex dipped marginally by 3.32 points after a record-breaking rally. The benchmark had settled at an all-time high of 75,038.15 on Wednesday. It had reached the lifetime peak of 75,124.28 on Tuesday.