A recent report from the Energy Transitions Commission (ETC) underscores the urgent need for a significant reduction in fossil fuel usage to meet the goals outlined in the COP21 Paris Agreement. Titled “Fossil Fuels in Transition: Committing to the phase-down of all fossil fuels,” the report emphasizes the necessity of cutting down coal, oil, and gas usage by a substantial margin before 2050, advocating for immediate action to initiate this reduction.
According to the report, curbing fossil fuel-related emissions is critical to limit global warming effectively. Failure to achieve net-zero emissions from fossil fuels by mid-century will significantly impede the objectives set in the Paris Agreement. Therefore, the upcoming COP28 is urged to secure global consensus on the rapid decline of both the demand for and supply of fossil fuels.
The report highlights that while reducing emissions directly associated with fossil fuel production and transportation is crucial, approximately 80% of fossil-related emissions stem from their usage. It stresses the need to swiftly diminish both demand for and supply of all fossil fuels. By 2050, coal consumption should decrease by 80-85%, gas by 55-70%, and oil by 75-95% from 2022 levels, with immediate reductions required by 2030.
Adair Turner, Chair of the Energy Transitions Commission, emphasized that addressing climate change requires firm commitments to phase out the use and supply of fossil fuels. While cuts in direct emissions are essential, they fall short of what’s needed to limit global warming.
Technological advancements, the report argues, make reducing fossil fuel usage technically and economically viable. With renewable energy, batteries, electric vehicles (EVs), and heat pumps advancing faster than anticipated, a clear path to nearly complete decarbonization across various economic sectors, including heavy industry and long-distance transport, is apparent.
However, the report stresses the necessity of stronger policies to expedite the deployment of zero-carbon technologies and supporting infrastructure. These measures encompass carbon pricing, technology support, and bans on the sale of new fossil fuel assets, such as internal combustion engines or fossil-based boilers.
Ita Kettleborough, Director at the Energy Transitions Commission, asserted that carbon capture and storage (CCUS) and removals play vital but limited roles in achieving net-zero emissions. They should complement rapid fossil fuel reduction efforts rather than serve as substitutes.
Furthermore, the report underlines the need to drastically reduce investments in fossil fuel supply. It insists that to limit global warming to 1.5°C, a considerable portion of oil, gas, and coal reserves should remain untapped. It calls for a substantial decline in fossil fuel supply investment by 2030 and 2040, advocating for strict restrictions on new oil and gas developments.
The report’s key recommendations advocate for COP28 to commit to a rapid phase-down of fossil fuel use and urge governments, fossil fuel companies, and financial institutions to align their strategies with the report’s outlined reductions and limitations on fossil fuel exploration and exploitation.
The report, developed in collaboration with various industry, financial, and environmental organizations, reflects a collective perspective of the Energy Transitions Commission. It emphasizes that while the members endorse the report’s core arguments, not every finding or recommendation may align with individual affiliations.