Electronics and services exports to contain slide in growth rate of trade - Business Guardian
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Electronics and services exports to contain slide in growth rate of trade

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In the dynamic world of international trade, India faces a complex scenario as it endeavors to navigate global challenges and capitalize on potential opportunities. A recent report by the Global Trade Research Initiative (GTRI) sheds light on the country’s trade prospects for 2023. Despite an anticipated 2.6% decline in overall trade, the report underscores the resilience in specific sectors, such as electronic goods and services. This comprehensive analysis delves into the factors influencing India’s trade dynamics, examining both the areas of growth and the sectors grappling with challenges.

The GTRI report projects a 2.6% decline in India’s exports and imports of goods and services, reaching $1,609 billion in 2023 compared to $1,651.9 billion in the previous year. This aligns with a global trend, where the World Trade Organization (WTO) forecasts a meager 0.8% growth in the global merchandise trade volume for 2023.

Amidst the challenges, certain sectors are poised for growth in 2023. Notably, the report identifies electronic goods, particularly smartphones, as a beacon of success. Smartphone exports are expected to surge by an impressive 93% to $14 billion, marking a significant contribution to the overall rise in India’s electronics exports, which reached $26.8 billion, reflecting a 26.2% growth. This surge in smartphone exports positions India as a key player in the global electronics market.

The services sector is anticipated to exhibit resilience, with a projected 10.5% increase in services exports to $333.5 billion in 2023. This positive trajectory is noteworthy as it underscores the importance of India’s expertise in areas such as IT, software services, and other knowledge-based industries. While services imports may record flat growth at $176.4 billion, the overall services sector performance remains promising.

However, not all sectors share the optimistic outlook. Traditional sectors such as engineering goods, petroleum products, chemicals, gems and jewelry, and textiles are expected to face declines in 2023. The challenges in these sectors are attributed to weak global demand and a gradual erosion of India’s competitiveness in labor-intensive industries. GTRI Co-Founder Ajay Srivastava notes that exports of petroleum products may witness a decline of over 9% to $86 billion.

The report indicates that India’s merchandise exports may decline by 5.3% to $429.4 billion in 2023, reflecting global trends with a 5% decline, as per UNCTAD’s Global Trade Update. Importantly, gold imports are expected to increase by over 18% to $43.33 billion, suggesting a unique dynamic within the trade scenario.

An intriguing aspect highlighted in the report is the discrepancy between the depreciation of the Indian Rupee (INR) against the US Dollar ($) and its impact on export volumes. Despite a considerable depreciation of the INR from 77.5 in June 2022 to 82.1 in June 2023, the expected increase in export volumes did not materialize. Typically, a weaker domestic currency enhances a country’s export competitiveness, but India’s case presents a nuanced scenario.

In conclusion, India’s trade landscape for 2023 is a complex tapestry of challenges and opportunities. While overall trade is expected to decline, the robust performance of the electronic goods and services sectors, particularly smartphones, offers a glimmer of hope. Navigating the evolving global trade dynamics requires strategic interventions to revitalize traditional sectors and sustain growth in emerging ones. As India continues to position itself in the global marketplace, policymakers and industry stakeholders must collaborate to harness the nation’s potential and address the multifaceted challenges inherent in the international trade arena.

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BSF seizes gold biscuits at Indo-Bangladesh border, arrests Indian national

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Border Security Force (BSF) personnel apprehended an Indian national with gold biscuits in the Indo-Bangladesh border area following a tip-off. Acting on the intelligence received, troops from the Border Outpost (BOP) Hili-II of the 61 Battalion BSF under the Raiganj Sector of the North Bengal Frontier conducted an operation in the Dakshin Dinajpur district of West Bengal, resulting in the arrest of one Indian national identified as Jinnat Ali Mondal.

According to officials, Mondal was clandestinely carrying gold biscuits and was apprehended at the temporary fencing gate while attempting to cross from the village of Haripokhar, located ahead of the fence. During a thorough search conducted by the BSF, nine gold biscuits weighing a total of 1039.440 grams were recovered from Mondal’s possession. Subsequently, Mondal, along with the seized gold biscuits, was handed over to the Preventive Unit of Customs at Hili for further legal proceedings.

This incident is not the first of its kind in the region, as BSF troops had previously recovered four gold biscuits weighing 466.020 grams from the same area of BOP Hili on September 7, 2023, indicating the persistent nature of attempts to smuggle contraband across the border.

Meanwhile, in a separate operation conducted by the BSF’s Punjab frontier force on May 15, vigilant troops intercepted the movement of a drone ahead of the border fence in the Tarn Taran district. Following protocol, BSF personnel tracked the drone’s movement and sought to neutralize it. The suspected dropping zone was cordoned off, and an extensive search operation was launched. Subsequently, BSF troops successfully recovered a small drone with one packet of suspected heroin attached to it. The recovered packet, weighing approximately 550 grams, was wrapped in transparent adhesive tape, containing two smaller packets wrapped in yellow adhesive tape. Additionally, a ring made of nylon rope was found attached to the main packet. The recovered drone, identified as a DJI Mavic 3 Classic model manufactured in China, was found in a partially broken condition.

In a statement, the BSF commended the keen observation and timely reaction of its diligent troops on duty, which once again demonstrated their commitment to preventing the entry of narcotics through drones from across the border. These incidents highlight the multifaceted challenges faced by security forces in safeguarding India’s borders against illegal activities, including the smuggling of contraband such as gold and narcotics. Despite the vigilance and proactive measures adopted by security personnel, perpetrators continue to devise new methods to evade detection and circumvent border security measures.

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Legally Speaking

Supreme Court holds off on decision in Baba Ramdev contempt case

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The Supreme Court has deferred its decision on a contempt notice issued against yoga guru Ramdev, his associate Balkrishna, and their company Patanjali Ayurved in connection with a case involving misleading advertisements. The bench, comprising Justices Hima Kohli and Ahsanuddin Amanullah, stated, “Orders on the contempt notice issued to respondents 5 to 7 (Patanjali Ayurved Ltd, Balkrishna, and Ramdev) are reserved.” The Uttarakhand State Licensing Authority (SLA) informed the court that manufacturing licenses for 14 products of Patanjali Ayurved Ltd and Divya Pharmacy have been suspended immediately. The Supreme Court noted that the counsel representing the firm had requested time to submit an affidavit detailing the actions taken to retract the advertisements of Patanjali products and to recall the medicines.

Highlighting the importance of public awareness and responsible influence, the court emphasized that Baba Ramdev wields significant influence and should employ it responsibly. It awaits an affidavit from Patanjali outlining the measures implemented to withdraw the existing misleading advertisements of the company’s products, with instructions for submission within three weeks.

During the proceedings, Indian Medical Association (IMA) President R V Asokan extended an unconditional apology to the bench for remarks made against the top court in a recent interview with news agency PTI. Justice Kohli conveyed to Asokan that public figures cannot criticize the court in media interviews. However, the court indicated its disinclination to accept the apology affidavit submitted by the IMA president at present. In an earlier hearing on May 7, the apex court had denounced Asokan’s statements as “very, very unacceptable.” The court reiterated its stance that celebrities and social media influencers are equally liable for the products they endorse, warning that if such products are found to be misleading, they could face repercussions.

The case stems from a plea filed in 2022 by the IMA alleging a smear campaign by Patanjali against the Covid-19 vaccination drive and modern medical systems. As the legal proceedings unfold, the Supreme Court continues to emphasize the importance of accountability and responsible conduct in advertising and public discourse. The case underscores the need for stringent regulations to curb misleading advertisements and ensure consumer protection. With the demand for transparency and ethical practices on the rise, the judiciary plays a pivotal role in upholding standards of integrity in commercial communications.

As the court awaits the submission of the affidavit from Patanjali, stakeholders across industries are keenly observing the developments, anticipating their implications on advertising practices and regulatory enforcement in the country.

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Vantage Markets & Cristina Gutierrez Honor Moms

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Gutierrez’s exceptional success in motorsport is rooted in her deep connection to her mother’s guidance, which she gratefully acknowledges as the foundation of her journey.

Vantage Markets, a prominent multi-asset broker, is joining in the celebration of Mother’s Day alongside NEOM McLaren Extreme E Driver, Cristina Gutierrez, emphasizing the significance of family support and values in her successful career. In an exclusive interview with Vantage, Gutierrez attributes her championship journey to the values instilled by her mother, highlighting perseverance, loyalty, and the importance of family as guiding principles. She reminisces about her first Dakar Rally experience in 2017, where her mother’s presence made the achievement particularly memorable for the entire family. Despite her remarkable achievements in motorsport, Gutierrez remains deeply connected to her mother’s guidance and wisdom, acknowledging her roots and expressing gratitude for the experiences life has offered her.

Vantage extends warm wishes to all mothers and their families on Mother’s Day, with Marc Despallieres, Chief Strategy and Trading Officer, emphasizing Gutierrez’s journey as a testament to maternal support and guidance. Vantage’s celebration follows their recent International Women’s Day campaign with Gutierrez, amplifying messages of empowerment and inclusion.

Vantage Markets, also known as Vantage, offers clients access to a diverse range of trading products, including Forex, Commodities, Indices, Shares, ETFs, and Bonds. With over 13 years of market experience, Vantage provides a trusted trading ecosystem and user-friendly platforms, empowering clients to seize trading opportunities.

As Vantage continues to champion diversity and inclusion, they proudly support Gutierrez and mothers worldwide, recognizing the invaluable role of family support in personal and professional success. This heartfelt celebration underscores the enduring bond between mothers and their children, highlighting the influence of family values in shaping individuals’ lives and careers.

On this special occasion of Mother’s Day, Vantage Markets, in collaboration with NEOM McLaren Extreme E Driver Cristina Gutierrez, takes a moment to honor the profound impact of maternal support and guidance. Gutierrez’s journey to championship glory serves as a poignant reminder of the role mothers play in shaping their children’s destinies. As Gutierrez reflects on her achievements, she attributes much of her success to the core values instilled by her mother: perseverance, loyalty, and the importance of family. These principles have not only propelled her forward on the racetrack but have also guided her through life’s challenges.

One particularly memorable moment Gutierrez shares is her first Dakar Rally experience in 2017, where her mother’s presence made the triumph all the more meaningful. The shared joy of accomplishment underscored the tight-knit bond that exists within their family, leaving an indelible mark on Gutierrez’s heart. Despite her ascent to motorsport stardom, Gutierrez remains grounded in her roots, cherishing the wisdom and guidance passed down by her mother. She expresses gratitude for the lessons learned and the unwavering support that continues to fuel her journey.

Vantage Markets extends heartfelt wishes to all mothers and their families, recognizing the immeasurable contributions they make every day. Chief Strategy and Trading Officer Marc Despallieres emphasizes Gutierrez’s story as a testament to maternal love and encouragement, echoing sentiments of empowerment and inclusion.

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International Affairs

Japan’s Teleworking shrinks, Hybrid work surges: Govt. survey

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With the gradual decline of the COVID-19 pandemic, Japan is observing a significant change in work dynamics, as more people adopt a “hybrid work” approach, blending remote and in-office work. Insights from the fiscal 2023 government survey, administered by the transport ministry in October and November, illuminate the shifting teleworking landscape in the nation.

According to the survey results, the proportion of teleworkers in Japan has declined, with 16.1 percent of the 36,228 respondents reporting working from home or elsewhere outside the office in the last year. This represents a decrease of 2.7 percentage points from the previous survey. The decline marks a departure from the peak teleworking period during the height of the pandemic, reflecting a gradual return to pre-pandemic work arrangements.

Teleworking emerged as a prominent strategy during the pandemic, as the government sought to reduce the flow of people and curb the spread of infections. However, the survey highlights a discernible shift in this trend as the pandemic situation evolves. The ratio of teleworkers stood at 21.4 percent in the fiscal 2021 survey, declining to 18.8 percent the following year, and further dropping to 16.1 percent in fiscal 2023.

Despite the decrease in teleworking overall, the survey indicates that the average frequency of teleworking remains relatively stable, with individuals teleworking an average of 2.3 days per week, unchanged from the previous year. However, there has been a noticeable change in the distribution of teleworking frequency. Following the government’s decision to downgrade the legal status of COVID-19 in May last year, aligning it more closely with seasonal influenza, there has been a notable increase in the number of individuals working remotely for one or two days a week. Conversely, the proportion of those working remotely for five to seven days a week has decreased.

A ministry official attributed this shift to a growing trend of combining office-based work with telework, reflecting a broader adaptation to changing work dynamics in the post-pandemic era. This hybrid work model allows individuals to enjoy the benefits of both remote work, such as flexibility and reduced commuting time, and in-office collaboration and social interaction.

The survey also highlights regional variations in teleworking rates, with bigger cities exhibiting higher rates of remote work. For instance, the greater Tokyo area, including Tokyo and its surrounding prefectures, recorded a teleworking rate of 28 percent, indicating a strong prevalence of remote work practices in Japan’s bustling capital. In comparison, regions such as the Kinki region (covering Osaka and Kyoto) and the Chukyo region (centered on Nagoya) reported lower teleworking rates.

Overall, the findings of the fiscal 2023 government survey underscore the evolving nature of work arrangements in Japan, characterized by a shift towards hybrid work models that blend remote work with traditional office-based work. As organizations and individuals continue to adapt to the post-pandemic reality, flexible work arrangements are likely to remain a key feature of Japan’s work culture, promoting efficiency, resilience, and work-life balance in the years to come.

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Global light show: Solar storm wows, no major issues reported

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A potent solar storm treated observers to a stunning celestial display worldwide overnight, resulting in seemingly minor disruptions to the electrical grid, communication networks, and satellite positioning systems. The US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) said extreme geomagnetic storm conditions continued Saturday, and there were preliminary reports of power grid irregularities, degradation of high-frequency communications and global positioning systems. But the Federal Emergency Management Agency said that, so far, no FEMA region had reported any significant impact from the storms.

The US Department of Energy said Saturday it is not aware of any impact from the storms on electric customers. NOAA predicted that strong flares will continue through at least Sunday, and a spokeswoman said via email that the agency’s Space Weather Prediction Center had prepared well for the storm. Brilliant purple, green, yellow and pink hues of the Northern Lights were reported worldwide, with sightings in Germany, Switzerland, China, England, Spain and elsewhere.

NOAA issued a rare severe geomagnetic storm warning when a solar outburst reached Earth on Friday afternoon, hours sooner than anticipated. The agency alerted operators of power plants and orbiting spacecraft, as well as FEMA, to take precautions. “For most people here on planet Earth, they won’t have to do anything,” said Rob Steenburgh, a scientist with NOAA’s Space Weather Prediction Center, as quoted by AP. “That’s really the gift from space weather: the aurora,” Steenburgh said.

He and his colleagues said the best views may come from phone cameras, which are better at capturing light than the naked eye. The most intense solar storm in recorded history, in 1859, prompted auroras in Central America and possibly even Hawaii. This storm poses a risk for high-voltage transmission lines for power grids, not the electrical lines ordinarily found in people’s homes, NOAA space weather forecaster Shawn Dahl told reporters. Satellites also could be affected, which in turn could disrupt navigation and communication services here on Earth.

An extreme geomanetic storm in 2003, for example, took out power in Sweden and damaged power transformers in South Africa. Following the storm’s passing, NOAA warns that signals between GPS satellites and ground receivers may experience interference or interruption. However, due to the abundance of navigation satellites, any disruptions are expected to be brief, as highlighted by Steenburgh.

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March records 449 Infra projects with Rs 5.01 trillion cost overrun: MoSPI

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An official report revealed that in March 2024, a total of 449 infrastructure projects, each requiring an investment of Rs 150 crore or more, experienced a cost overrun exceeding Rs 5.01 trillion. The Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation (MoSPI), responsible for monitoring infrastructure projects valued at Rs 150 crore and higher, indicated that out of 1,873 projects surveyed, 449 encountered cost overruns while 779 projects faced delays.

“The total original cost of implementation of the 1,873 projects was Rs 26,87,535.69 crore and their anticipated completion cost is likely to be Rs 31,88,859.02 crore, which reflects an overall cost overrun of Rs 5,01,323.33 crore (18.65 per cent of the original cost),” the ministry’s latest report for March 2024 said.

According to the report, the expenditure incurred on these projects till March 2024 is Rs 17,11,648.99 crore, which is 53.68 per cent of the anticipated cost of the projects. However, the number of delayed projects decreased to 567 if the delay is calculated based on the latest schedule of completion, it added.

Further, it said that for 393 projects, neither the year of commissioning nor the tentative gestation period has been reported. Out of the 779 delayed projects, 202 have overall delays in the range of 1-12 months, 181 have been delayed for 13-24 months, 277 projects for 25-60 months, and 119 projects have been delayed for more than 60 months. The average time overrun in these 779 delayed projects is 36.04 months.

Reasons for time overrun, as reported by various project implementing agencies, include delay in land acquisition, obtaining forest and environment clearances, and lack of infrastructure support and linkages. Delays in tie-up for project financing, finalization of detailed engineering, change in scope, tendering, ordering, and equipment supply, and law and order problems are among other reasons.

The report also cited state-wise lockdowns due to Covid-19 (imposed in 2020 and 2021) as a reason for the delay in the implementation of these projects. It has also been observed that project executing agencies are not reporting revised cost estimates and commissioning schedules for many projects, which suggests that time/cost overrun figures are under-reported, it added.

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