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Market waiting for global cues to decide trend

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The week that ended on April 29 was full of both sided sharp moves. The week began with an expected fall, rose the next day, fell the next day and kept on alternating between gains and losses all through the week. At the end of the week, it had lost on three of the five days. What was eventful was the fact that Friday was the day of reversal where markets gained initially and in the last hour just cracked.

In the process the chart formation was that of an engulfing candle where both the previous days highs and lows were crossed and market closed lower. The week closed with small net change which does not convey the market movement. BSESENSEX lost 136.26 points or 0.24 per cent to close at 57,060.89 points while NIFTY lost 69.40 points or 0.40 per cent to close at 17,102.55 points. The broader markets saw BSE100, BSE200 and BSE500 lost 0.44 per cent, 0.56 per cent and 0.69per cent, respectively. BSEMIDCAP lost 1.14 per cent and BSESMALLCAP lost even more at 2.17 per cent. The India Rupee gained 6 paisa or 0.08 per cent to close at Rs 76.42 to the US dollar.

Dow Jones had yet another Friday selloff when it lost 939 points. This is the second consecutive Friday when it has lost 900 points plus. The week ended with losses of 834.19 points or 2.47 per cent to close at 32,977.21 points. Dow Jones had in the year to date lost 9.25 per cent and is very close to the 10 per cent level when the US gets worried about their markets. Nasdaq lost 4.17 per cent for the week and is now down 21.16 per cent on a year-to-date basis. It closed at 12,334.64 points and made a new low on Friday. The US Fed meets on May 3-4 and would be raising interest rates. While a 50 basis points is a certainty, there is a growing feeling that the way inflation is shaping up, the hike could be even more.

The week ahead has a trading holiday on Tuesday and looking at the Dow on Friday, the opening of our markets would be gap down on Monday. With the Tuesday holiday and Fed meeting coming up, even lower prices would not attract investors or traders as they would be cautious. Expect markets to take a trend only post what the Fed does on Wednesday night. April futures expired with the bears having it their way. The only saving grace was the fact that markets rallied on Thursday and allowed the bulls to recover some ground.

The series ended with losses of 219.70 points or 1.26 per cent to close at 17,245.05 points. In primary market news, we had two issues which opened and closed for subscription during the week. These issues were the first under the new guidelines which restricted funding to just one crore per individual. There was also the bifurcation of the HNI bucket into two segments of 5 per cent and 10 per cent with the first being 2-10 lakhs and the second 10 lakhs and over. The first thought that comes to mind post the subscription is the fact that HNI subscription has cooled of significantly. Subscription is a mere 22.25 times and just 3.73 times in the HNI category respectively.

The days when subscription began at a threedigit level and went up to 400 and 500 times are certainly a thing of the past. This has also reduced the premiums significantly as there is no cost of funding. While everything seems fine for the moment, stock exchanges have chosen not to give the break-up of the two buckets of HNI subscription for reasons best known to them. Through this article I would request SEBI to direct the exchanges to disseminate the information as it is in the interest of investors. The issue from Campus Activewear Limited which had tapped the markets with its offer for sale of 479.50 lakh shares in a price band of Rs 278-292 was oversubscribed 51.75 times overall. The QIB portion was subscribed 152.04 times, HNI portion 22.25 times, Retail 7.68 times and Employee 2.11 times. In the 10 lakh plus category roughly one out of three applicants would get shares worth Rs 2 lakhs.

The second issue was from Rainbow Children’s Medicare Limited which had tapped the markets with its fresh issue of Rs 280 crore and an offer for sale of 2.4 crore shares in a price band of Rs 516-542. The issue was subscribed 12.42 times with QIB portion subscribed 38.90 times, HNI portion subscribed 3.73 times, Retail portion subscribed 1.38 times and Employee portion subscribed 0.31 times. HNI applicants in the 2 lakh plus category would get full allotment. I believe it would take a few issues for investors to understand where they should apply going forward. The week ahead sees Life Insurance Corporation of India Limited tapping the markets with its offer for sale of 22.13 crore shares in a price band of Rs 902-949. The issue would have its anchor on Monday and the issue would open on Wednesday and close on May 9.

The issue is open for four days for subscription. This issue which would be the largest issue to ever hit the capital markets would raise about Rs 21,000 crore. The issue has a reservation of 10 per cent for Policy holders which is the first time ever that such a reservation is being made. They are also entitled to a discount of Rs 60 per share. The Employee quota is also for 10 per cent and they along with Retail investors would get a discount of Rs 45 per share. The issue which would have a market capitalisation of about Rs 5.92 lakh crore is priced at 1.1 times its EV or embedded value.

This is in line with large, mature international insurance companies from China which have the size and scale of LIC. The government is selling 3.5 per cent of the company and has given a commitment to investors that there would be no dilution of shares for a minimum of 12 months after listing. This one year holding period is enough to allow the share to establish its price and place in the capital markets. Looking at the likely response, the opportunity that LIC has in the Indian markets, its growth over the last 22 years when privatisation took place and the fact that insurance is highly underpenetrated in India, offers great opportunity to investors looking at LIC. This is a must invest opportunity. Coming to the markets in the four-day week ahead, they would be volatile and choppy. As mentioned early they would be under pressure on Monday when markets open.

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Policy&Politics

Kejriwal unveils ‘Guarantee’ for LS Polls: AAP’s pledge for change

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On “Kejriwal ki Guarantee”, he said 24X7 power supply, good education and health facilities, and arranging two crore jobs for youths every year are part of it.

Delhi Chief Minister and AAP national convener Arvind Kejriwal declared “Kejriwal ki Guarantee” on Sunday, outlining 10 urgent initiatives to be pursued swiftly, including the liberation of Indian territory from Chinese control, should the INDIA bloc come to power at the Centre. This opposition alliance, comprising parties like AAP, Congress, Trinamool Congress, and Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam, was established to challenge the BJP-led National Democratic Alliance in the Lok Sabha elections.

A day after his release from jail on interim bail, Kejriwal on Saturday said the INDIA bloc will form the next government and his AAP will be part of it. Addressing a press conference on Sunday, the AAP leader said people will have to choose between “Modi ki Guarantee” and “Kejriwal ki guarantee”. The latter is a “brand”, Kejriwal said.

On the announcement of his guarantees, Kejriwal said, “I have not discussed with my INDIA bloc partners about this. I will press upon my INDIA bloc partners to fulfill these guarantees.”

Kejriwal said while the AAP has fulfilled its “guarantees” of free power, good schools, and Mohalla Clinics in Delhi, “(Prime Minister Narendra) Modi has not fulfilled his guarantees”.

On “Kejriwal ki Guarantee”, he said 24X7 power supply, good education and health facilities, and arranging two crore jobs for youths every year are part of it.

“We worked on management to ensure 24×7 power supply in Punjab and Delhi. We can do it in the entire country. The government schools in the country are in a bad shape. We will arrange good quality education across the country. We know how to do it,” he said.

Kejriwal also promised to end the Agniveer scheme and ensure that farmers get MSP for their crops as per the Swaminathan Commission’s report. “Rashtra Sarvopari is our guarantee. China has occupied our land and we will free it from their occupation,” he said. Kejriwal also promised to provide full statehood to Delhi.

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Economy

Macro & financial stability, boost to infra, extended PLI likely key areas in Modi 3.0

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If one were to go by the Central Government’s poll manifesto which has stayed aligned to the pre-poll interim Budget, a strong adherence to the path of macro and financial stability as priorities, marked by low inflation, strong external balances, high growth, and fiscal prudence, appears to be the likely scenario if it comes back to power. A DBS Group research by Radhika Rao, senior economist, DBS Group Research and Taimur Baig, MD and Chief Economist, DBS Group Research indicates that the government will continue with the infrastructure push, policies to expand the manufacturing sector, and establish the country’s position as a voice of the Global South.

On the first, the focus will be on improving physical and digital infrastructure, marked by new metro networks, new railway tracks, new-age trains, improved connectivity, new bullet trains, roads, and energy infrastructure. Concurrently, besides expanding the 5G network, improving rural broadband connectivity, exploring 6G technology and the digitization of land records, amongst others, were highlighted in the to-do lists, as per Rao and Baig.

Secondly, Make-in-India and PLI schemes are likely to be expanded, with an emphasis on employment creation, simplification of regulatory processes, appropriate infra for manufacturing hubs, and R&D. A mix of traditional and new-age sectors will likely be prioritized, including a globally competitive food-processing industry, and core sectors (steel, cement, metals, engineering etc), besides a push towards indigenous defense manufacturing, pharma, new age & chip manufacturing, auto and electric vehicles, amongst others.

Existing social welfare programs are likely to be enhanced with better outreach, including, a middle-class focus through the provision of high-value jobs, quality healthcare and infra to improve ease of living, amongst others. Also on the radar is affordable housing program expansion with a focus on slum redevelopment, sustainable cities, etc. The PM Garib Kalyan Anna Yojana is to be a priority, which will continue to provide free foodgrain ration to about 800 mn residents. On healthcare, Rao and Baig see continuity to provide quality free health treatment to up to 500,000 poor families under Ayushman Bharat.

The economists are also of the view that the PM Ujjwala Yojana, which has already benefited 100 mn with cooking gas connections, will be expanded. Subsidies for solar panels on roofs of 10 mn households up to 300 units/month under the PM Surya Ghar Muft Bijli Yojana, unorganized workers, farmers and continuation of financial assistance to farmers under PM Kisan, farm self-sufficiency, etc.), start-ups and micro-credit enterprises, will be the other focus areas to boost the economy from a bottom-up approach.

Rao and Baig foresee limited fiscal implications from these announcements as part of these were included in the interim budget and the manifesto did not outline any new big-bang reforms or fresh social welfare spending programs. “We maintain our FY25 fiscal deficit assumption at -5.1% of GDP with the existing borrowing program,” says the economists.

A broad-based push towards more contentious structural reforms (land, labor, farming, etc.) did not receive a mention in the manifesto, which may still be prioritized if the party returns for a third term. In our view, the incoming government is neither limited by nor will be restricted by the poll promises. To that extent, the scope of reforms can be wider than what has been laid out in the respective manifestos.

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Policy&Politics

Govt extends date for submission of R&D proposals

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The Government has extended the deadline for submission of proposals related to R&D scheme under the National Green Hydrogen Mission. The R&D scheme seeks to make the production, storage, transportation and utilisation of green hydrogen more affordable. It also aims to improve the efficiency, safety and reliability of the relevant processes and technologies involved in the green hydrogen value chain. Subsequent to the issue of the guidelines, the Ministry of New & Renewable Energy issued a call for proposals on 16 March, 2024.

While the Call for Proposals is receiving encouraging response, some stakeholders have requested more time for submission of R&D proposals. In view of such requests and to allow sufficient time to the institutions for submitting good-quality proposals, the Ministry has extended the deadline for submission of proposals to 27th April, 2024.

The scheme also aims to foster partnerships among industry, academia and government in order to establish an innovation ecosystem for green hydrogen technologies. The scheme will also help the scaling up and commercialisation of green hydrogen technologies by providing the necessary policy and regulatory support.

The R&D scheme will be implemented with a total budgetary outlay of Rs 400 crore till the financial year 2025-26. The support under the R&D programme includes all components of the green hydrogen value chain, namely, production, storage, compression, transportation, and utilisation.

The R&D projects supported under the mission will be goal-oriented, time bound, and suitable to be scaled up. In addition to industrial and institutional research, innovative MSMEs and start-ups working on indigenous technology development will also be encouraged under the Scheme.

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Policy&Politics

India, Brazil, South Africa to press for labour & social issues, sustainability

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The Indian delegation also comprises Rupesh Kumar Thakur, Joint Secretary, and Rakesh Gaur, Deputy Director from the Ministry of Labour & Employment.

India, on Thursday, joined the G20’s two-day 2nd Employment Working Group (EWG) meeting under the Brazilian Presidency which is all set to address labour, employment and social issues for strong, sustainable, balanced and job-rich growth for all. India is co-chairing the 2nd EWG meeting, along with Brazil and South Africa, and is represented by Sumita Dawra, Secretary, Labour & Employment.

The Indian delegation also comprises Rupesh Kumar Thakur, Joint Secretary, and Rakesh Gaur, Deputy Director from the Ministry of Labour & Employment. India has pointed out that the priority areas of the 2nd EWG at Brasilia align with the priority areas and outcomes of previous G20 presidencies including Indian presidency, and commended the continuity in the multi-year agenda to create lasting positive change in the world of work. This not only sustains but also elevates the work initiated by the EWG during the Indian Presidency.

The focus areas for the 2nd EWG meeting are — creating quality employment and promoting decent labour, addressing a just transition amidst digital and energy transformations, leveraging technologies to enhance the quality of life for al and the emphasis on gender equity and promoting diversity in the world of employment for inclusivity, driving innovation and growth. On the first day of the meeting, deliberations were held on the over-arching theme of promotion of gender equality and promoting diversity in the workplace.

The Indian delegation emphasized the need for creating inclusive environments by ensuring equal representation and empowerment for all, irrespective of race, gender, ethnicity, or socio-economic background. To increase female labour force participation, India has enacted occupational safety health and working conditions code, 2020 which entitles women to be employed in all establishments for all types of work with their consent at night time. This provision has already been implemented in underground mines.

In 2017, the Government amended the Maternity Benefit Act of 1961, which increased the ‘maternity leave with pay protection’ from 12 weeks to 26 weeks for all women working in establishments employing 10 or more workers. This is expected to reduce the motherhood pay gap among the working mothers. To aid migrant workers, India’s innovative policy ‘One Nation, One Ration Card’ allows migrants to access their entitled food grains from anywhere in the Public Distribution System network in the country.

A landmark step in fostering inclusion in the workforce is the e-Shram portal, launched to create a national database of unorganized workers, especially migrant and construction workers. This initiative, providing the e-Shram card, enables access to benefits under various social security schemes.

The portal allows an unorganized worker to register himself or herself on the portal on self-declaration basis, under 400 occupations in 30 broad occupation sectors. More than 290 million unorganized workers have been registered on this portal so far.

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Policy&Politics

India to spend USD 3.7 billion to fence Myanmar border

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India plans to spend nearly $3.7 billion to fence its 1,610-km (1,000-mile) porous border with Myanmar within about a decade, said a source with direct knowledge of the matter, to prevent smuggling and other illegal activities. New Delhi said earlier this year it would fence the border and end a decades-old visa-free movement policy with coup-hit Myanmar for border citizens for reasons of national security and to maintain the demographic structure of its northeastern region.

A government committee earlier this month approved the cost for the fencing, which needs to be approved by Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s cabinet, said the source who declined to be named as they were not authorised to talk to the media. The prime minister’s office and the ministries of home, finance, foreign affairs and information and broadcasting did not immediately respond to an email seeking comment.

Myanmar has so far not commented on India’s fencing plans. Since a military coup in Myanmar in 2021, thousands of civilians and hundreds of troops have fled from there to Indian states where people on both sides share ethnic and familial ties. This has worried New Delhi because of risk of communal tensions spreading to India. Some members of the Indian government have also blamed the porous border for abetting the tense situation in the restive north-eastern Indian state of Manipur, abutting Myanmar.

For nearly a year, Manipur has been engulfed by a civil war-like situation between two ethnic groups, one of which shares lineage with Myanmar’s Chin tribe. The committee of senior Indian officials also agreed to build parallel roads along the fence and 1,700 km (1,050 miles) of feeder roads connecting military bases to the border, the source said.

The fence and the adjoining road will cost nearly 125 million rupees per km, more than double that of the 55 million per km cost for the border fence with Bangladesh built in 2020, the source said, because of the difficult hilly terrain and the use of technology to prevent intrusion and corrosion.

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Policy&Politics

ONLY 2-3% RECOVERED FROM $2-3 TN ANNUAL ILLEGAL TRADE THROUGH BANKING: INTERPOL

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However, Stock highlighted the enormity of the challenge, noting that between 40% and 70% of criminal profits are reinvested, perpetuating the cycle of illicit financial activity.

In a press briefing held on Wednesday, Interpol Secretary General Jurgen Stock unveiled alarming statistics regarding the extent of undetected money laundering and illegal trade transactions plaguing the global banking network. Stock revealed that over 96% of the money transacted through this network remains undetected, with only 2-3% of the estimated USD 2-3 trillion from illegal trade being tracked and returned to victims.

Interpol, working in conjunction with law enforcement agencies and private financial sectors across its 196 member countries, is committed to combating the rising tide of fraud perpetrated by illicit traders. These criminal activities encompass a wide spectrum, including drug trafficking, human trafficking, arms dealing, and the illicit movement of financial assets.

Stock emphasized the urgent need to establish mechanisms for monitoring transactions within the global banking network. Currently, efforts are underway to engage banking associations worldwide in setting up such a framework. However, Stock highlighted the enormity of the challenge, noting that between 40% and 70% of criminal profits are reinvested, perpetuating the cycle of illicit financial activity. The lack of real-time information sharing poses a significant obstacle to law enforcement agencies in their efforts to combat money laundering and illegal trade.

Stock underscored the role of Artificial Intelligence (AI) in exacerbating this problem, citing its use in voice cloning and other fraudulent activities. Criminal organizations are leveraging AI technologies to expand their operations and evade detection on a global scale. Stock emphasized the importance of enhanced cooperation between law enforcement agencies and private sector banking groups. Realtime information sharing is crucial in the fight against illegal wealth accumulation.

Drawing inspiration from initiatives such as the “Singapore Anti-Scam Centre,” Stock called for the adoption of similar models in other countries to strengthen the collective response to financial crimes. In conclusion, Stock’s revelations underscore the pressing need for concerted action to combat global financial crimes. Enhanced cooperation between public and private sectors, coupled with innovative strategies for monitoring and combating illicit transactions, is essential to safeguarding the integrity of the global financial system.

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