Infrastructure, Capital Goods and the Defence sectors are large nation-building sectors and contribute in a significant way for capital formation in a country’s long term progress.
Thanks to sturdy awarding of contracts within the infrastructure sector in the first quarter, the start to FY23 has been inspiring. Tendering in the infrastructure sector was healthy, primarily led by mega value projects floated by NHAI and the Rural Water and Sanitation department.
In July last, tendering was led by roads (Rs 447 billion), water supply (Rs 172 billion), community services (Rs 81 billion), and railways (Rs 90 billion). Also, the month saw strong awarding of Rs 403 billion, up 52% annually. To recap, in 1QFY23, tenders over Rs 2.6 trillion were issued, which is 87% jump annually.
Incrementally, as regards Defence which is also another nation-building sector, it has seen the defence acquisition procedure (DAP) 2020 laying a clear focus on cultivating domestic defence ecosystem by emphasizing on indigenization by increasing FDI limit to 74% from 49% earlier and encouraging foreign original equipment manufacturers (OEM) to set up manufacturing/maintenance entities through subsidiaries in India.
Additionally, global manufactures in India would require the foreign OEMs to either manufacture entirely or partly the equipment or spares/assemblies/sub-assemblies/maintenance, repair and overhaul (MRO) facility for the equipment, through subsidiaries in India, & increase of indigenous content by 10% which would have 50% local content as against 40% local content earlier.
The MoD intends to scale up domestic defence turnover to Rs 1.75 trillion (Rs 350 billion of exports) by 2025 from the current levels of Rs 800 billion. Incrementally, 68% of the capital acquisition budget has been earmarked for domestic procurement to promote self-reliance and reduce import dependency.
India’s defence exports have grown at a CAGR of 31% during FY15-22 and has reached Rs 130 billion. Exports have been driven mainly by the private sector with 70% share and government has set an aggressive target to reach Rs 350 billion by FY25 implying CAGR of 39% over FY22-25.
As far as capital goods sector is concerned, overall ordering activity was healthy from several sectors. The pace of ordering in water, data centres, B&F, international power T&D, FGD, metro rail and O&G continued. Whereas globally, ordering activity has seen strong traction from the Mid-East, SAARC, MENA, North America and Africa.
The infrastructure sector has become the biggest focus area for the Centre. India plans to spend $1.4 trillion on infrastructure during 2019-23 to have a sustainable development of the country.
In such a scenario, which are the companies that are likely to derive maximum benefit and grow significantly by having a diverse exposure to infrastructure, capital goods and defence sectors domestically?
One such company which is a dominant leader in the capital goods, infra and defence sector is Larsen & Toubro Ltd (L&T), which is primarily engaged in providing engineering, procurement and construction (EPC) solutions in key sectors such as infrastructure, hydrocarbon, power, process industries and defence, information technology and financial services in domestic and international markets.
L&T is a leading EPC player in the Indian market and its infrastructure segment comprises engineering and construction of buildings and factories, transportation infra, heavy civil infra, power transmission and distribution, water & effluent treatment, smart world and commercial projects and metallurgical & material handling systems and is the core business of the company.
L&T’s hydrocarbon business comprises of complete EPC solutions for the global oil & gas industry from design through detailed engineering, fabrication, procurement, project management, construction, installation and commissioning and accounts for 12% of revenues.
The power business comprises turnkey solutions for coal-based and gas-based thermal power plants including power generation equipment with associated systems and/ or balance-of-plant packages.
The company’s defence segment comprises of design, development, serial production and through life-support of equipment, systems and platforms for defence and aerospace sectors; and design, construction and repair/refit of defence vessels.
The heavy engineering segment comprises manufacture and supply of custom designed, engineered critical equipment and systems for core sector industries like fertiliser, refinery, petrochemical, chemical, oil & gas and thermal & nuclear power.
L&T also has a service business which comprises of its IT business which is divided between its 3 subsidiaries, namely L&T Infotech Ltd, Mindtree & L&T Technology Services Ltd. The company’s financial services business primarily comprises of rural finance, housing finance, wholesale finance, and is controlled by company’s subsidiary L&T Finance Holdings Ltd.
L&T’s order inflow correlates to India’s economic growth. Over the last few years, the Indian economy has faced challenging times and this was further accentuated by the Covid-19 pandemic, which delayed recovery for L&T. However, the National Infrastructure Pipeline (NIP) indicates spends of Rs 111 lakh crore over the next five years and L&T with its diverse presence and capabilities would be the biggest beneficiary of the same.
L&T’s order inflow is strongly correlated to growth in economy and capex cycle recovery. Whenever Indian GDP has grown over or above 10%, LT’s order inflow has expanded at an accelerated pace.
IMF has predicted strong recovery for Indian economy and the country is expected to regain the fastest growing economy tag in 2022. Accelerated growth, government’s thrust on reviving infra spend and capex cycle recovery will work as boon for LT’s order inflow growth.
L&T’s diverse presence and unique capabilities across segments of transportation infra, power, urban & rural infra, water & irrigation will aid the company to get maximum benefit of NIP. NIP spending would bring huge opportunity for L&T to capture large market share across different segments.
L&T has remained the market leader in Indian Infra space for many years due to its ability to bag large Infrastructure orders, operational efficiency, technical expertise and vast on ground experience.
L&T is optimistic on growth prospects in India owing to higher than estimated tax collections, the government’s continued thrust on infra spending and is hopeful of private capex revival by H2FY23.
Tendering activity in Q1FY23 was Rs 2.6 trillion vis-a-vis Rs 1.35 trillion in Q1FY22. In the Middle East region, it expects strong traction on the back of higher crude prices. Infrastructure and hydrocarbon opportunities are likely to open up in the Middle East, African sub-continent on the back of enhanced bi-lateral/ multi-lateral funding support.
Further company’s constant focus to divest its non-core assets should boost its RoE. L&T’s ‘Lakshya 2026’ plan is focusing on scaling up new business opportunities (green hydrogen, electrolyzers & battery manufacturing, SuFin, EduTech) which are now in the incubation phase and are expected to bring significant benefits in future.
L&T has also won orders valued at Rs 81 billion in defence engineering in FY22, representing substantial growth over the previous year with the receipt of a few large domestic orders. The order book totalled Rs 125 billion as at 31 March 2022, with a 4% export share.
Overall, L&T received order inflows worth Rs 1.9 trillion (+10% YoY) in FY22, largely driven by mega international orders in the power transmission and distribution and hydrocarbon businesses. L&T has an order backlog of Rs 3.6 trillion, translating into 3.3x FY22 core sales, an increase of 9.2% YoY following the receipt of some high-value contracts.
The infrastructure segment continues to dominate with 73% share of the consolidated order book. Around 21% comprises orders received from various state governments, including local authorities. Private sector contribution rose to 20% as against 17% as of March 21.
All this has got reflected in FY22 numbers with revenues at Rs 1,56,521 crore and a PAT of Rs 10,419 crore as compared to a net profit of Rs 12,921 crore last year with a net EPS of Rs 62 in FY22 from Rs 83 last year.
From a valuation perspective, the L&T stock currently trades at Rs 1,940 levels at a PE multiple of 29xFY23E & 25xFY24E which looking at its profitability levels and a monopolistic hold on its key products with strong operating cash flows are likely to get reflected in premium valuations of 25-35x going ahead.
L&T has conservatively guided that the group revenue and order inflows to grow 12-15% in FY23, and its core business margin to come at 9.5%. It has laid out a strategic plan for FY21-26 (Lakshya 2026), where the initiatives, investments and focus would help 11-13% CAGRs in domestic revenue and order inflows. Hence, looking at growth prospects ahead, we expect L&T to perform strongly over the next 2-3 years which essentially puts it in a sweet spot going ahead.
(The author is the Head-Research at Profitmart Securities and a seasoned financial planner and equity researcher)