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Crypto down but not out, clamour to persist

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Cryptocurrency has witnessed a phenomenal rise post the global financial crisis of 2008. Amidst the different technological innovations that facilitated its creation, one of the most critical aspects has been the declining trust in the interface of policies, governance, financial system and institutions to maintain the value of existing fiat currencies. It was not a pleasant experience for individuals and businesses booking losses and suffering due to excessive greed and risktaking by some banks and financial institutions elsewhere despite a supposedly robust regulatory system. Losses were in terms of employment, income and investments intertwined with the purchasing power of currencies.

So, can there be a system involving the businesses and individuals within the transacting fraternity where settlements could occur without institutional interferences? Especially when there is an associated cost with limited to no protection from the aftereffects of their negligent decision makings? Can there be a way to preserve the value of transactions and the transacting units? Right or wrong, there came the “bitcoin”, a cryptocurrency founded in 2009 by an individual or a group under the pseudonym “Satoshi Nakamoto” supported by the dimensions of a specific type of distributed ledger technology – the blockchain. It has taken the world by storm, followed by many other cryptocurrencies disrupting the existing regulatory mechanism in the financial system.

As a digital asset generated from a technological process involving transaction validations through the underlying mix of distributed ledger and blockchain technology and not issued by any central authority, it remains outside the purview and interference of government agencies. For this reason, unlike legal tender, it remains protected from inflation besides the technology protects against counterfeiting concerns. 

BENEFITS OF DISTRIBUTED LEDGER & BLOCKCHAIN 

A distributed ledger can be perceived as a database across several locations and accessed by multiple participants operating in this transactional ecosystem. All participants thus can view all records in question. Think of this in contrast to the usual “Centralised Databases”, which necessitate a central authority or intermediary to process and authenticate transactions. In such a centralised system, individual transactions must pass through the authentication processes through financial intermediaries, and settlements ultimately occur in a centralized database in a fixed location. One, it involves cost as these intermediaries charge fees. Besides, there can be inefficiencies related to security/transparency, and audit trails need not be entirely immutable.

Usage of blockchain reduces the counterparty risk as it facilitates a trustless transaction. The technology guarantees the simultaneous transfer of assets and the payments thereof, making it impossible to execute one leg of the transfer if the other leg gets interrupted for whatever reason. It facilitates the distribution of trust across different participants/stakeholders in the system (trusting everyone in aggregate) from being concentrated in a single entity in a centralised system.

In such a decentralised system, defined protocols allow transactions amongst individuals involving the digital transfer of value over the internet in a “peer to peer” manner without requiring any intermediary to trust. Here, the trust is on the underlying blockchain system (public-key cryptography and consensus mechanism in particular) that facilitates the transfer and simultaneously ensures sender authenticity and currency validity. 

WHAT ARE THE OUTCOMES? 

Since the distributed ledger and blockchain underlying cryptocurrency facilitates transactions without a third-party centralized clearing agency, it: (i) reduces counterparty risks; (ii) enhances the efficiency of the settlement process by minimizing transaction time, allowing 24/7 processing through increased automation, thus (iii) reduces cost and enhance savings for various businesses. It also brings transparency, relegating control of all its information and transactions to the users in the blockchain ecosystem and has greater security in the inherent immutability of such ledgers reducing the chances of errors and frauds.

But, several technological, legal, and policy hurdles have been thrown open by this disruptive innovation. There are concerns about the lack of intrinsic value as it is not backed by a sovereign or verified bullion (except in some stablecoins). It makes them highly volatile, further amplified in uncertain times like now.

There are governance concerns amidst a lack of clarity of jurisdictions in the absence of centralized infrastructure and regulatory purview. Existing criminal laws and macroprudential and micro-prudential regulations cannot provide the necessary safeguards from any illegal activity perforating through this technology.

Further, there are apprehensions surrounding the immutability of transactions necessitating changes in the entire history of transactions to initiate changes at any specific point in the transaction chain. Not to mention worries surrounding the susceptibility of keys associated with recording to thefts or loss, making digital assets irretrievable. The differences in distributed ledger technology systems can create integration and interoperability problems. Not to forget the costs and the level of industrywide coordination of integrating this technology with legacy infrastructure. 

SHOULD INDIA ALLOW CRYPTOCURRENCY? 

Certainly not at this stage, but there should not be shying away from harnessing the underlying potential of the technology. Given the lack of maturity of this technology and associated risks, an element of caution is always warranted in the absence of its regulatory vetting and acceptable industry standards. At the same time, staying away from leveraging the benefits of the underlying technology is equivalent to a missed opportunity.

The distributed ledger technology appears well suited to address various issues across domains. There are benefits of reduced costs and inefficiencies of manual data verifications and interventions, unlocking liquidity and enabling better balance sheet management across and between firms through intraday repo using tokenised collateral and digital cash. The Society for Worldwide Interbank Financial System (SWIFT) is continuously testing and analyzing the use of this technology in their business. Besides at the back of the rising use of digital finance, there are opportunities to provide easy and accessible financial products and services to the country’s unbanked population, facilitating financial inclusion.

Hence, there is little doubt that as a country, we should remain open to promoting innovations and usage of this technology initially in baby steps to equip us for its gainful use over time. Developing the necessary regulatory and technological infrastructure to rein in this technology and putting in essential safeguards against any malicious usage remains the key.

That said, the presence of technology, its continuous innovation, refinements and increased adoption globally will likely keep the crypto attraction alive as an alternative asset in the immediate term. Besides, persistence in global inflation can only elevate its status as a competing threat to fiat currencies, implying greater responsibilities for central banks and policymakers. Ultimately, it boils down to either succeeding in maintaining the value of fiat currencies or being ready to compete with phenomena like cryptocurrencies. (The author is a professor and the Area Chairperson of Economics Environment and Policy at IMT, Ghaziabad)

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Policy&Politics

Kejriwal unveils ‘Guarantee’ for LS Polls: AAP’s pledge for change

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On “Kejriwal ki Guarantee”, he said 24X7 power supply, good education and health facilities, and arranging two crore jobs for youths every year are part of it.

Delhi Chief Minister and AAP national convener Arvind Kejriwal declared “Kejriwal ki Guarantee” on Sunday, outlining 10 urgent initiatives to be pursued swiftly, including the liberation of Indian territory from Chinese control, should the INDIA bloc come to power at the Centre. This opposition alliance, comprising parties like AAP, Congress, Trinamool Congress, and Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam, was established to challenge the BJP-led National Democratic Alliance in the Lok Sabha elections.

A day after his release from jail on interim bail, Kejriwal on Saturday said the INDIA bloc will form the next government and his AAP will be part of it. Addressing a press conference on Sunday, the AAP leader said people will have to choose between “Modi ki Guarantee” and “Kejriwal ki guarantee”. The latter is a “brand”, Kejriwal said.

On the announcement of his guarantees, Kejriwal said, “I have not discussed with my INDIA bloc partners about this. I will press upon my INDIA bloc partners to fulfill these guarantees.”

Kejriwal said while the AAP has fulfilled its “guarantees” of free power, good schools, and Mohalla Clinics in Delhi, “(Prime Minister Narendra) Modi has not fulfilled his guarantees”.

On “Kejriwal ki Guarantee”, he said 24X7 power supply, good education and health facilities, and arranging two crore jobs for youths every year are part of it.

“We worked on management to ensure 24×7 power supply in Punjab and Delhi. We can do it in the entire country. The government schools in the country are in a bad shape. We will arrange good quality education across the country. We know how to do it,” he said.

Kejriwal also promised to end the Agniveer scheme and ensure that farmers get MSP for their crops as per the Swaminathan Commission’s report. “Rashtra Sarvopari is our guarantee. China has occupied our land and we will free it from their occupation,” he said. Kejriwal also promised to provide full statehood to Delhi.

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Economy

Macro & financial stability, boost to infra, extended PLI likely key areas in Modi 3.0

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If one were to go by the Central Government’s poll manifesto which has stayed aligned to the pre-poll interim Budget, a strong adherence to the path of macro and financial stability as priorities, marked by low inflation, strong external balances, high growth, and fiscal prudence, appears to be the likely scenario if it comes back to power. A DBS Group research by Radhika Rao, senior economist, DBS Group Research and Taimur Baig, MD and Chief Economist, DBS Group Research indicates that the government will continue with the infrastructure push, policies to expand the manufacturing sector, and establish the country’s position as a voice of the Global South.

On the first, the focus will be on improving physical and digital infrastructure, marked by new metro networks, new railway tracks, new-age trains, improved connectivity, new bullet trains, roads, and energy infrastructure. Concurrently, besides expanding the 5G network, improving rural broadband connectivity, exploring 6G technology and the digitization of land records, amongst others, were highlighted in the to-do lists, as per Rao and Baig.

Secondly, Make-in-India and PLI schemes are likely to be expanded, with an emphasis on employment creation, simplification of regulatory processes, appropriate infra for manufacturing hubs, and R&D. A mix of traditional and new-age sectors will likely be prioritized, including a globally competitive food-processing industry, and core sectors (steel, cement, metals, engineering etc), besides a push towards indigenous defense manufacturing, pharma, new age & chip manufacturing, auto and electric vehicles, amongst others.

Existing social welfare programs are likely to be enhanced with better outreach, including, a middle-class focus through the provision of high-value jobs, quality healthcare and infra to improve ease of living, amongst others. Also on the radar is affordable housing program expansion with a focus on slum redevelopment, sustainable cities, etc. The PM Garib Kalyan Anna Yojana is to be a priority, which will continue to provide free foodgrain ration to about 800 mn residents. On healthcare, Rao and Baig see continuity to provide quality free health treatment to up to 500,000 poor families under Ayushman Bharat.

The economists are also of the view that the PM Ujjwala Yojana, which has already benefited 100 mn with cooking gas connections, will be expanded. Subsidies for solar panels on roofs of 10 mn households up to 300 units/month under the PM Surya Ghar Muft Bijli Yojana, unorganized workers, farmers and continuation of financial assistance to farmers under PM Kisan, farm self-sufficiency, etc.), start-ups and micro-credit enterprises, will be the other focus areas to boost the economy from a bottom-up approach.

Rao and Baig foresee limited fiscal implications from these announcements as part of these were included in the interim budget and the manifesto did not outline any new big-bang reforms or fresh social welfare spending programs. “We maintain our FY25 fiscal deficit assumption at -5.1% of GDP with the existing borrowing program,” says the economists.

A broad-based push towards more contentious structural reforms (land, labor, farming, etc.) did not receive a mention in the manifesto, which may still be prioritized if the party returns for a third term. In our view, the incoming government is neither limited by nor will be restricted by the poll promises. To that extent, the scope of reforms can be wider than what has been laid out in the respective manifestos.

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Policy&Politics

Govt extends date for submission of R&D proposals

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The Government has extended the deadline for submission of proposals related to R&D scheme under the National Green Hydrogen Mission. The R&D scheme seeks to make the production, storage, transportation and utilisation of green hydrogen more affordable. It also aims to improve the efficiency, safety and reliability of the relevant processes and technologies involved in the green hydrogen value chain. Subsequent to the issue of the guidelines, the Ministry of New & Renewable Energy issued a call for proposals on 16 March, 2024.

While the Call for Proposals is receiving encouraging response, some stakeholders have requested more time for submission of R&D proposals. In view of such requests and to allow sufficient time to the institutions for submitting good-quality proposals, the Ministry has extended the deadline for submission of proposals to 27th April, 2024.

The scheme also aims to foster partnerships among industry, academia and government in order to establish an innovation ecosystem for green hydrogen technologies. The scheme will also help the scaling up and commercialisation of green hydrogen technologies by providing the necessary policy and regulatory support.

The R&D scheme will be implemented with a total budgetary outlay of Rs 400 crore till the financial year 2025-26. The support under the R&D programme includes all components of the green hydrogen value chain, namely, production, storage, compression, transportation, and utilisation.

The R&D projects supported under the mission will be goal-oriented, time bound, and suitable to be scaled up. In addition to industrial and institutional research, innovative MSMEs and start-ups working on indigenous technology development will also be encouraged under the Scheme.

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Policy&Politics

India, Brazil, South Africa to press for labour & social issues, sustainability

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The Indian delegation also comprises Rupesh Kumar Thakur, Joint Secretary, and Rakesh Gaur, Deputy Director from the Ministry of Labour & Employment.

India, on Thursday, joined the G20’s two-day 2nd Employment Working Group (EWG) meeting under the Brazilian Presidency which is all set to address labour, employment and social issues for strong, sustainable, balanced and job-rich growth for all. India is co-chairing the 2nd EWG meeting, along with Brazil and South Africa, and is represented by Sumita Dawra, Secretary, Labour & Employment.

The Indian delegation also comprises Rupesh Kumar Thakur, Joint Secretary, and Rakesh Gaur, Deputy Director from the Ministry of Labour & Employment. India has pointed out that the priority areas of the 2nd EWG at Brasilia align with the priority areas and outcomes of previous G20 presidencies including Indian presidency, and commended the continuity in the multi-year agenda to create lasting positive change in the world of work. This not only sustains but also elevates the work initiated by the EWG during the Indian Presidency.

The focus areas for the 2nd EWG meeting are — creating quality employment and promoting decent labour, addressing a just transition amidst digital and energy transformations, leveraging technologies to enhance the quality of life for al and the emphasis on gender equity and promoting diversity in the world of employment for inclusivity, driving innovation and growth. On the first day of the meeting, deliberations were held on the over-arching theme of promotion of gender equality and promoting diversity in the workplace.

The Indian delegation emphasized the need for creating inclusive environments by ensuring equal representation and empowerment for all, irrespective of race, gender, ethnicity, or socio-economic background. To increase female labour force participation, India has enacted occupational safety health and working conditions code, 2020 which entitles women to be employed in all establishments for all types of work with their consent at night time. This provision has already been implemented in underground mines.

In 2017, the Government amended the Maternity Benefit Act of 1961, which increased the ‘maternity leave with pay protection’ from 12 weeks to 26 weeks for all women working in establishments employing 10 or more workers. This is expected to reduce the motherhood pay gap among the working mothers. To aid migrant workers, India’s innovative policy ‘One Nation, One Ration Card’ allows migrants to access their entitled food grains from anywhere in the Public Distribution System network in the country.

A landmark step in fostering inclusion in the workforce is the e-Shram portal, launched to create a national database of unorganized workers, especially migrant and construction workers. This initiative, providing the e-Shram card, enables access to benefits under various social security schemes.

The portal allows an unorganized worker to register himself or herself on the portal on self-declaration basis, under 400 occupations in 30 broad occupation sectors. More than 290 million unorganized workers have been registered on this portal so far.

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Policy&Politics

India to spend USD 3.7 billion to fence Myanmar border

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India plans to spend nearly $3.7 billion to fence its 1,610-km (1,000-mile) porous border with Myanmar within about a decade, said a source with direct knowledge of the matter, to prevent smuggling and other illegal activities. New Delhi said earlier this year it would fence the border and end a decades-old visa-free movement policy with coup-hit Myanmar for border citizens for reasons of national security and to maintain the demographic structure of its northeastern region.

A government committee earlier this month approved the cost for the fencing, which needs to be approved by Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s cabinet, said the source who declined to be named as they were not authorised to talk to the media. The prime minister’s office and the ministries of home, finance, foreign affairs and information and broadcasting did not immediately respond to an email seeking comment.

Myanmar has so far not commented on India’s fencing plans. Since a military coup in Myanmar in 2021, thousands of civilians and hundreds of troops have fled from there to Indian states where people on both sides share ethnic and familial ties. This has worried New Delhi because of risk of communal tensions spreading to India. Some members of the Indian government have also blamed the porous border for abetting the tense situation in the restive north-eastern Indian state of Manipur, abutting Myanmar.

For nearly a year, Manipur has been engulfed by a civil war-like situation between two ethnic groups, one of which shares lineage with Myanmar’s Chin tribe. The committee of senior Indian officials also agreed to build parallel roads along the fence and 1,700 km (1,050 miles) of feeder roads connecting military bases to the border, the source said.

The fence and the adjoining road will cost nearly 125 million rupees per km, more than double that of the 55 million per km cost for the border fence with Bangladesh built in 2020, the source said, because of the difficult hilly terrain and the use of technology to prevent intrusion and corrosion.

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Policy&Politics

ONLY 2-3% RECOVERED FROM $2-3 TN ANNUAL ILLEGAL TRADE THROUGH BANKING: INTERPOL

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However, Stock highlighted the enormity of the challenge, noting that between 40% and 70% of criminal profits are reinvested, perpetuating the cycle of illicit financial activity.

In a press briefing held on Wednesday, Interpol Secretary General Jurgen Stock unveiled alarming statistics regarding the extent of undetected money laundering and illegal trade transactions plaguing the global banking network. Stock revealed that over 96% of the money transacted through this network remains undetected, with only 2-3% of the estimated USD 2-3 trillion from illegal trade being tracked and returned to victims.

Interpol, working in conjunction with law enforcement agencies and private financial sectors across its 196 member countries, is committed to combating the rising tide of fraud perpetrated by illicit traders. These criminal activities encompass a wide spectrum, including drug trafficking, human trafficking, arms dealing, and the illicit movement of financial assets.

Stock emphasized the urgent need to establish mechanisms for monitoring transactions within the global banking network. Currently, efforts are underway to engage banking associations worldwide in setting up such a framework. However, Stock highlighted the enormity of the challenge, noting that between 40% and 70% of criminal profits are reinvested, perpetuating the cycle of illicit financial activity. The lack of real-time information sharing poses a significant obstacle to law enforcement agencies in their efforts to combat money laundering and illegal trade.

Stock underscored the role of Artificial Intelligence (AI) in exacerbating this problem, citing its use in voice cloning and other fraudulent activities. Criminal organizations are leveraging AI technologies to expand their operations and evade detection on a global scale. Stock emphasized the importance of enhanced cooperation between law enforcement agencies and private sector banking groups. Realtime information sharing is crucial in the fight against illegal wealth accumulation.

Drawing inspiration from initiatives such as the “Singapore Anti-Scam Centre,” Stock called for the adoption of similar models in other countries to strengthen the collective response to financial crimes. In conclusion, Stock’s revelations underscore the pressing need for concerted action to combat global financial crimes. Enhanced cooperation between public and private sectors, coupled with innovative strategies for monitoring and combating illicit transactions, is essential to safeguarding the integrity of the global financial system.

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