Stock market soars on US Fed rate cut signal, Sensex up 539 points, Nifty above 22,000 - Business Guardian
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Stock market soars on US Fed rate cut signal, Sensex up 539 points, Nifty above 22,000

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On Thursday, the Indian stock market witnessed a significant surge, with benchmark Sensex rallying 539 points and Nifty closing above the 22,000 level. This upward movement was primarily driven by buying activity in metal, power, and energy shares, coupled with a global market rally following the US Federal Reserve’s projection of three rate cuts for the year.

The 30-share BSE Sensex surged by 539.50 points or 0.75 percent to settle at 72,641.19, marking its second consecutive day of gains. At its peak during the day, it soared by 780.77 points or 1.08 percent to touch 72,882.46. Similarly, the NSE Nifty climbed by 172.85 points or 0.79 percent to reach 22,011.95. Leading the gains in the Sensex basket were stocks like NTPC, Power Grid, IndusInd Bank, Tata Steel, Tata Motors, JSW Steel, Tech Mahindra, and Larsen & Toubro.

On the other hand, Bharti Airtel, Maruti, ICICI Bank, and Asian Paints were among the laggards. In the broader Asian markets, Seoul, Tokyo, and Hong Kong recorded significant gains, while Shanghai ended lower. European markets also traded in positive territory, following Wall Street’s remarkable gains on Wednesday, where the S&P 500, Dow Jones Industrial Average, and Nasdaq Composite all hit record highs. Vinod Nair, Head of Research at Geojit Financial Services, attributed the market optimism to signals from the Federal Reserve indicating its commitment to three interest rate cuts this year, despite inflation remaining above the long-term target.

Ajit Mishra, SVP – Technical Research at Religare Broking Ltd, noted that the Nifty faced resistance at its short-term moving average of 20 EMA, suggesting potential consolidation ahead. Deepak Jasani, Head of Retail Research at HDFC Securities, highlighted the positive momentum in global markets, driven by the Federal Reserve’s indications of future rate cuts, providing room for regional central banks to consider monetary easing. In the broader market, both the BSE midcap and smallcap indices witnessed substantial gains of 2.36 percent and 2.01 percent, respectively.

Across sectors, power, realty, industrials, capital goods, metal, services, commodities, and consumer discretionary segments all ended in the green. However, amidst the market rally, global oil benchmark Brent crude dipped marginally to USD 85.88 a barrel. Foreign institutional investors offloaded equities worth Rs 2,599.19 crore on Wednesday, as per exchange data.

On Wednesday, the BSE benchmark rebounded by 89.64 points or 0.12 percent to settle at 72,101.69, while the NSE Nifty climbed by 21.65 points or 0.10 percent to 21,839.10. Overall, Thursday’s market activity reflected a robust bullish sentiment driven by positive global cues and the Federal Reserve’s stance on interest rate cuts.

Investors exhibited confidence amidst the backdrop of improving economic conditions and anticipation of monetary policy support. While certain sectors outperformed, such as power, realty, and industrials, others faced resistance, signalling potential consolidation in the near term. With the broader market witnessing significant gains and all indices ending in the green, market participants remain vigilant for further developments in global economic trends and central bank policies, which are expected to continue influencing market dynamics in the days ahead.

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Politics

Amit Shah foresees stock market surge post PM Modi’s June 4th victory

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Union Home Minister Amit Shah, in an exclusive interview with a leading media channel on Monday, cautioned against drawing correlations between recent stock market fluctuations and the upcoming 2024 Lok Sabha elections. Shah, a pivotal figure in India’s political landscape, advised investors to consider purchasing stocks before June 4th, the date of the Lok Sabha election results. Expressing optimism, Shah forecasted a surge in the domestic stock market in the forthcoming period.

“I can’t anticipate stock market moves. But normally whenever a stable government is formed at Centre, the market sees a rally. I see 400-plus seat wins for the Bharatiya Janata Party [BJP], a stable Modi government coming, and thus market rising,” Shah told NDTV.

Shah’s remarks came amidst the ongoing fourth phase of the general elections and a recent downturn in the benchmark Nifty index, which witnessed declines in six out of the last seven sessions. Despite prevailing market uncertainties surrounding the election results, Shah remained steadfast in his outlook.

Nomura India, in the financial realm, pointed out the likelihood of a BJP victory based on recent opinion polls, anticipating policy continuity post the 2024 general elections. According to Nomura, the government may focus on politically contentious reforms concerning land, labor, capital, judicial systems, and tax administration, among others.

MUFG Bank offered a nuanced perspective, acknowledging the prevailing consensus regarding a robust BJP performance while also highlighting increased uncertainty due to lower voter turnout in the initial phases of the elections. The bank suggested that market sentiment should remain positive over time if the BJP secures a majority of seats, with expectations of policy continuity in critical areas.

Mirae Asset highlighted the importance of the July Budget in the event of a BJP victory, emphasizing potential changes in taxation policies and agricultural schemes. The firm stressed long-term strategies, focusing on infrastructure development, agricultural reforms, and employment generation to stimulate demand from rural India.

Lastly, PhillipCapital identified a potential market rally in the event of the BJP-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA) surpassing the 400-seat target. The brokerage firm advised investors to closely monitor subsequent election phases, recognizing their potential impact on market dynamics.

“If a lower 300-330 seats for the NDA results in a knee-jerk market reaction [a fall], we would treat it as a buying opportunity. A further worsening of voter turnout in the following election phases could have a bearing on election outcome and equities – so we would keep a close watch,” the domestic brokerage said in its note.

Overall, amidst the evolving political landscape and market fluctuations, stakeholders in India’s financial markets are closely observing the ongoing Lok Sabha elections, anticipating their impact on policy continuity and market sentiment in the coming period.

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Markets

Nvidia nears all-time high on AI spending surge

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Nvidia shares are rapidly approaching their previous all-time highs set in March of this year, propelled by robust capital expenditure from key clients and in anticipation of strong earnings expected later this month. Since reaching a low point on April 19th, Nvidia shares have surged by 20%, now trailing the March peak by only about 3%.

On Monday, Nvidia closed 3.6% higher, contributing to a market capitalization increase of over $70 billion. Nvidia’s top customers like Meta Inc, Microsoft, Amazon, and Alphabet have all laid out sustained plans of capital expenditures in their respective earnings calls.

CIO of Americas at UBS Financial Services, Solita Marcelli, told Bloomberg that shares that are a play on AI computing are expected to stay attractive as capital expenditure from Microsoft, Alphabet, Meta, and Amazon is expected to cross $200 billion this year, higher than a previous estimate.

“So if you look at revenue a year ago was about 25 billion for the data center segment and now that’s 100 billion. So the run up has really just been commensurate with the increase in earnings… So we believe based on our research and the companies we speak to across the value chain that there is still a lot of opportunity for these earnings to go higher,” Ivana Delevska, founder and CIO of Spear Invest, told Reuters on May 7.

The S&P 500 has now $2 trillion in market capitalization since the April 19 low, half of which has come from the ‘Magnificent Seven’ technology stocks (Alphabet, Amazon, Apple, Meta Platforms, Microsoft, Nvidia, Tesla). Monday also marked the best three-day rally since November for the S&P 500.

“The ‘Magnificent 7’ have performed pretty well this year, and part of the reason is because we are at the bottom of the technology cycle and we see a lot of upside ahead driven by many factors including AI,” Delevska told Reuters, implying the major technology stocks should continue to do well in 2024 as well.

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Markets

Indian Stock Markets outshine Gold and FDs in returns: FY24

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The Indian stock markets exhibited impressive performance during FY 2023-24, with the Nifty 50 index delivering a significant 29% return. Data from the National Stock Exchange (NSE) reveals that Indian market growth has sustained for the eighth consecutive year, showcasing positive returns. Notably, the Indian market has not experienced negative returns since 2015, underscoring the consistent upward trend of Indian equities. Fixed Deposits (FDs) yielded approximately 7% returns last year, while Gold returns surged by 17% in FY24.

Comparing the performance of the Indian stock market with its American and European counterparts reveals India’s strong position in terms of returns. While the Nifty 50 provided a return of 29 percent, the S&P 500 index of America offered a slightly lower return of 27.9 percent. Similarly, the Euro Stoxx 50 index of Europe yielded a return of 17.8 percent only.

Ajay Bagga, a banking and market expert, stated, “Indian markets have benefited from a convergence of a strong macro environment, positive governmental policies to enhance the infrastructure and manufacturing base of the country, strong domestic institutional and household flows into the markets, and a robust IPO market. We see all of these trends continuing and creating a very long runway of outperformance for the Indian markets.”

The returns in the last year indicate that the Indian market has outperformed both the American and European markets in the fiscal year, underscoring its attractiveness as an investment destination.

Experts have highlighted that the performance of the Indian market can be attributed to various factors, including favorable economic conditions, regulatory reforms, and growing investor confidence. Additionally, as per the data by NSE, the influx of 1.8 crore new investors during FY24 reflects the increasing interest in Indian equities among both retail and institutional investors. The surge in investor participation is the second-highest recorded in a single year, indicating a broad-based bullish sentiment in the Indian market.

Harsha Upadhyaya, CIO-Equity, Kotak Mahindra AMC, emphasized, “Strong performance of Indian equities is primarily driven by robust economic growth and strong corporate earnings trajectory despite challenging global macro environment. India continues to be an ‘Oasis in the desert’ and is attracting consistent flows.”

In the Indian markets, beyond the Nifty 50 index, the performance of the Nifty Next 50 index was particularly noteworthy, with a growth rate of 60 percent during the same period.

With consistent positive returns and a growing investor base, India remains an attractive destination for domestic and international investors seeking opportunities for wealth creation and capital appreciation. As investors navigate global uncertainties, India stands out as a beacon of stability and growth in the world of finance and investments.

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Markets

Sensex Sheds 700 Points in Widespread Sell-Off, Nifty Falls

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BSE Sensex plummeted 732.96 points to 73,878.15, NSE Nifty fell 172.35 points to 22,475.85, despite touching record highs.

Equity markets witnessed a sharp decline on Friday, with the benchmark Sensex plunging over 700 points to dip below the 74,000 mark, while the Nifty retreated from its record high. The sell-off was attributed to investors reducing exposure to telecom, capital goods, and technology stocks. Heavy selling pressure in Reliance Industries, L&T, and HDFC Bank also contributed to the indices’ downward trend. The BSE Sensex dropped by 732.96 points or 0.98% to settle at 73,878.15, after initially surging by 484.07 points earlier in the day.

The NSE Nifty also witnessed a decline of 172.35 points or 0.76% to 22,475.85, despite hitting a record high of 22,794.70 in early trade. The market’s volatility was highlighted by Ajit Mishra, SVP of Research at Religare Broking Ltd., who noted that despite a positive start driven by strong global cues, profit taking in heavyweight stocks led to significant losses by the end of the day. Stocks such as Larsen & Toubro, Maruti, Reliance Industries, and Nestle were among the major laggards, while Bajaj Finance saw a nearly 1% increase after the Reserve Bank of India lifted restrictions on its loan sanctioning and disbursal. Vinod Nair, Head of Research at Geojit Financial Services, attributed the market correction to profit booking and caution ahead of the release of the US non-farm payroll data.

However, he noted that the absence of significant negative surprises in Q4 earnings, along with a decline in oil prices, might help mitigate the downside. In the broader market, the BSE smallcap gauge declined by 0.55%, while the midcap index dipped by 0.21%. Telecommunication, realty, and services sectors witnessed notable declines, while healthcare and metal sectors were among the gainers. Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) offloaded equities worth Rs 964.47 crore on Thursday.

In Asian markets, Hong Kong settled positively, while Seoul ended lower. European markets traded in the green, and Wall Street ended with gains on Thursday. Global oil benchmark Brent crude declined slightly to USD 83.62 a barrel. On Thursday, the BSE benchmark closed with a gain of 128.33 points, while the NSE Nifty went up by 43.35 points. Investors’ cautious stance and profit-taking behaviour led to a broad-based correction in the equity market, particularly impacting large-cap stocks. Despite positive global cues, concerns over the US non-farm payroll data and volatility in oil prices contributed to the sell-off.

The lifting of restrictions on Bajaj Finance provided some relief, but overall sentiment remained subdued. The decline in FIIs’ equity offloading added to market jitters. While Asian markets showed mixed trends, European markets traded positively. The broader market witnessed sectoral declines in telecommunications, realty, and services, while healthcare and metal sectors saw gains. The market awaits further cues to gauge its direction amid ongoing uncertainty.

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Banking & Finance

Market Capitalisation of top 6 firms surges by Rs 1.30 trillion; SBI, ICICI Bank lead gains

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The combined market valuation of six of the top-10 most valued firms increased Rs 1,30,734.57 crore last week, with State Bank of India and ICICI Bank emerging as the biggest gainers in line with an overall positive trend in equities.

Last week, the BSE benchmark advanced 641.83 points or 0.87 per cent. The valuation of the State Bank of India rallied Rs 45,158.54 crore to Rs 7,15,218.40 crore. ICICI Bank’s market valuation rose Rs 28,726.33 crore to Rs 7,77,750.22 crore. Bharti Airtel added Rs 20,747.99 crore to Rs 7,51,406.35 crore, and that of ITC jumped Rs 18,914.35 crore to Rs 5,49,265.32 crore.

The market capitalisation (mcap) of Life Insurance Corporation of India (LIC) advanced by Rs 9,487.5 crore to Rs 6,24,941.40 crore, and that of Infosys went up by Rs 7,699.86 crore to Rs 5,93,636.31 crore.

However, the mcap of Reliance Industries declined by Rs 26,115.56 crore to Rs 19,64,079.96 crore. The valuation of HDFC Bank dipped by Rs 16,371.34 crore to Rs 11,46,943.59 crore. The mcap of Tata Consultancy Services went lower by Rs 5,282.41 crore to Rs 13,79,522.50 crore, and that of Hindustan Unilever Limited diminished by Rs 2,525.81 crore to Rs 5,21,961.70 crore.

Reliance Industries remained the most valued firm from the top-10 pack, followed by Tata Consultancy Services, HDFC Bank, ICICI Bank, Bharti Airtel, State Bank of India, LIC, Infosys, ITC and Hindustan Unilever.

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Markets

Indian Stock Market Up for Four Days Straight, Sensex Nears 74,000

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The BSE Sensex climbed 0.16%, closing at 73,852.94, with the NSE Nifty advancing 0.15% to 22,402.40.

Equity benchmark indices Sensex and Nifty extended their gains for the fourth consecutive session on Wednesday, buoyed by buying interest in metal and commodity stocks amidst a positive global equities trend. Despite facing selling pressure in telecom, IT, and tech counters, both indices managed to close higher.

The BSE Sensex rose by 114.49 points or 0.16%, settling at 73,852.94, after touching an intraday high of 74,121.61, up by 383.16 points or 0.51%. Similarly, the NSE Nifty gained 34.40 points or 0.15% to reach 22,402.40.

Market analysts noted that while Indian markets trailed behind their Asian counterparts due to subdued Q4 earnings, the composite PMI hitting a multi-year high indicated domestic resilience. Globally, investor sentiment improved as tensions in the Middle East eased and oil prices declined.

India’s economic activity continued to expand in April, with the HSBC flash India Composite PMI rising to 62.2, driven by strong performance in the services and manufacturing sectors.

From the Sensex basket, major gainers included JSW Steel, Tata Steel, Power Grid, Kotak Mahindra Bank, UltraTech Cement, NTPC, and Bajaj Finance. On the other hand, Tata Consultancy Services, Tech Mahindra, Maruti, Reliance Industries, and Titan experienced declines.

In the broader market, the BSE smallcap index climbed by 0.79%, while the midcap index advanced by 0.92%.

Sectorally, metal stocks led the gains, climbing by 2.83%, followed by commodities (1.62%), industrials (1.13%), and oil & gas (0.96%). However, IT, telecommunication, and tech sectors witnessed declines.

Market expert Siddhartha Khemka attributed the positive global sentiment to easing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and investors’ focus on earnings. The Nifty’s upswing was supported by healthy domestic macro data and Q4 results in line with expectations.

In Asian markets, major indices including Seoul, Tokyo, Shanghai, and Hong Kong settled in positive territory. European markets also traded mostly higher, while Wall Street ended Tuesday with gains. Meanwhile, the global oil benchmark Brent crude declined by 0.35% to USD 88.11 per barrel.

Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) reportedly offloaded equities worth Rs 3,044.54 crore on Tuesday, as per exchange data.

Overall, the market’s positive trajectory reflects optimism fueled by improving economic indicators, easing geopolitical tensions, and investor confidence in corporate earnings. However, cautious optimism prevails amidst ongoing global uncertainties and the upcoming phase of Indian elections, keeping investors watchful for further developments.

Investors remain cautiously optimistic amid ongoing global uncertainties and the impending phase of Indian elections. The market’s upward momentum reflects confidence in improving economic indicators, easing geopolitical tensions, and positive corporate earnings. However, the continuous monitoring of developments both domestically and globally remains essential. As the market continues its upward trajectory, analysts advise investors to maintain a balanced approach and stay attuned to emerging trends. With the outlook influenced by various factors, including economic data releases, geopolitical developments, and corporate earnings, market participants are advised to exercise caution and prudence while navigating the dynamic landscape of financial markets.

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