India to grow 7 % in FY24, 7.2 % in FY25, driven by robust investment, services exports - Business Guardian
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India to grow 7 % in FY24, 7.2 % in FY25, driven by robust investment, services exports

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The 2024-25 growth estimate is, however, lower than 7.6 per cent projected for the 2022-23 fiscal. The ADB’s growth forecast for FY25 is in line with projections made by the RBI.

After a slew of upgrades in growth projection , the Asian Development Bank (ADB) on Thursday raised India’s gross domestic product (GDP) growth forecast for fiscal year (FY) 2024 from 6.7 per cent to 7 per cent and 7.2 per cent in FY2025, attributing the robust growth to public and private sector investment demand, gradual improvement in consumer demand and strong services sector.

The 2024-25 growth estimate is, however, lower than 7.6 per cent projected for the 2022-23 fiscal. The ADB’s growth forecast for FY25 is in line with projections made by the RBI. Strong investment drove GDP growth in the 2022-23 fiscal as consumption was muted, the ADB said and expects India to affirm its position as a major growth engine within Asia, driven by strong investment, recovering consumption, and gains in electronics and services exports.

While in the rest of developing Asia, faster growth will be driven by domestic demand and some improvement in semiconductor and services exports, including tourism. Stronger growth in South Asia and Southeast Asia will offset lower growth in other subregions. “Notwithstanding global headwinds, India remains the fastest growing major economy on the strength of its strong domestic demand and supportive policies,” said ADB Country Director for India Mio Oka. “The Government of India’s efforts to boost infrastructure development while undertaking fiscal consolidation and provide an enabling business environment will help in increased manufacturing competitiveness to augment exports and drive future growth,” said Oka.

With inflation moderating to 4.6 per cent in FY2024 and easing further to 4.5 per cent in FY2025, the ADB suggests monetary policy may become less restrictive, which will facilitate rapid offtake of bank credit. Demand for financial, real estate and professional services will grow while manufacturing will benefit from muted input cost pressures that will boost industry sentiment. Expectations of a normal monsoon will help boost growth of the agriculture sector. The report lauds the government’s focus on fiscal consolidation, with a targeted deficit of 5.1 per cent of GDP for FY2024 and 4.5 per cent for FY2025, which will enable the government to reduce its gross marketing borrowing by 0.9 per cent of GDP in FY2024 and create further room for private sector credit.

India’s current account deficit will widen moderately to 1.7 per cent of GDP on rising imports for meeting domestic demand. Foreign direct investment will be affected in the near term due to tight global financial conditions but will pick up in FY2025 with higher industry and infrastructure investment. Goods exports will also be affected by lower growth in advanced economies but pick up in FY2025 as global growth improves.

On the regional front, growth in developing Asia will remain healthy at 4.9 per cent in 2024 and 2025, despite a slowdown in China. In fact, while growth in the PRC will decline from 5.2 per cent in 2023 to 4.8 per cent this year and 4.5 per cent next year, it will accelerate in the rest of developing Asia—from 4.8 per cent in 2023 to 5.0 per cent this year and 5.3 per cent in 2025. The slowdown in the PRC will be driven by the weak property market and amplified by fading domestic consumption growth after last year’s reopening.

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Tech

Apple designs AI chip for data centers (Project ACDC)

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Apple Inc. is reportedly in the process of developing its own chip designed to power artificial intelligence (AI) tools in data centers, as reported by the Wall Street Journal. While it remains uncertain whether the semiconductor will ultimately be deployed, this initiative marks Apple’s latest endeavor to expand its chip-making capabilities beyond its existing products such as iPhones and Macs.

According to sources familiar with the matter cited by the Journal, Apple’s server project, internally referred to as ACDC, aims to leverage in-house chip technology to enhance the performance of AI applications in data centers. This move underscores Apple’s strategic focus on bolstering its AI capabilities, particularly in light of its efforts to catch up with its tech counterparts in generative AI technology, which powers chatbots and other innovative tools.

While Apple has not officially commented on the reported development, the news has already had an impact on its stock performance. Apple shares rose by as much as 1.2% in late trading following the Wall Street Journal’s report. The company’s stock had previously experienced a 5.6% decline earlier in the year, indicating investor optimism surrounding this potential advancement in Apple’s chip technology.

Apple’s foray into server processors for AI applications aligns with broader industry trends, as several major tech companies have already developed their own semiconductors to power data centers. Amazon.com Inc.’s AWS, Google, Microsoft Corp., and Meta Platforms Inc. (formerly Facebook) are among the notable players that utilize in-house designed chips in their data center operations. These efforts have contributed to challenging the traditional dominance of Intel Corp.’s components in the data center market.

Moreover, Apple’s pursuit of AI technology extends beyond hardware development. The company is reportedly preparing to unveil a new strategy for artificial intelligence at its upcoming Worldwide Developers Conference (WWDC) next month. Bloomberg has reported that Apple’s AI strategy will focus on introducing new proactive features aimed at assisting users in their daily lives. Additionally, Apple has engaged in discussions with potential partners like Alphabet Inc.’s Google and OpenAI to explore opportunities for collaboration in providing generative AI services.

If Apple proceeds with the development and deployment of its own server processor for AI, it would mark a significant step forward in the company’s efforts to diversify its chip-making capabilities and strengthen its position in the AI technology landscape. While the specifics of Apple’s AI strategy and its collaboration efforts with other tech giants remain to be seen, the company’s continued investment in AI research and development underscores its commitment to innovation and technological advancement.

As Apple navigates the evolving landscape of AI technology and data center operations, stakeholders will closely monitor the company’s progress and announcements for further insights into its strategic direction and potential impact on the broader tech industry.

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India’s FMCG Industry Soars 6.6% Led by Countryside Consumption

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NielsenIQ noted a shift as rural consumption outpaced urban demand in the March quarter, with rural markets experiencing a 7.6% surge compared to urban markets’ 5.7% growth.

In the first quarter of 2024, the Indian packaged consumer goods industry witnessed a notable turnaround, with rural demand surpassing urban markets for the first time in 15 months. This shift marked a significant development for India’s fast-moving consumer goods (FMCG) sector, which had been grappling with sluggish rural demand for over a year. While urban shoppers had previously compensated for this slowdown with increased spending on packaged items, the recent data suggests a reversal of this trend.

According to consumer intelligence firm NielsenIQ, the FMCG industry reported a robust 6.6% growth in value terms during the March quarter, driven by a 6.5% increase in volumes. Roosevelt D’souza, the Head of Customer Success India at NielsenIQ, attributed this growth to evolving consumption trends, with rural areas leading the charge for the first time in five quarters. Notably, home and personal care (HPC) categories outperformed food categories, with larger pack sizes driving growth in the former segment.

NielsenIQ’s analysis highlighted a gradual uptick in rural consumption, which surpassed urban consumption in the March quarter. While urban markets reported a 5.7% year-on-year rise in demand, the growth rate was slower compared to the December quarter’s 6.9% increase. In contrast, rural demand surged by 7.6%, indicating a positive momentum in rural consumption patterns.

The quarterly earnings reports of large FMCG firms corroborated this trend, with many companies noting a sequential uptick in rural demand. Aasif Malbari, CFO of Godrej Consumer Products, emphasized the expectation of significant rural growth, given the current penetration levels. Similarly, Mohit Malhotra, CEO of Dabur India, highlighted the outpacing of rural growth compared to urban demand. Dabur reported a substantial 400 basis points growth differential between rural and urban markets in the March quarter.

Within the retail sector, modern trade exhibited strong double-digit volume growth at 14.7% for the March quarter, while traditional trade maintained stable growth with volumes growing at 5.6%. This suggests that traditional retail channels are holding their ground despite the rise of modern retail formats.

Both food and non-food sectors contributed to the overall consumption growth in India during the March quarter. However, non-food categories experienced nearly double the growth rate compared to food categories. While the food sector reported a volume growth of 4.8%, down from 5.3% in the previous quarter, the non-food category saw consumption growth reaching 11.1%.

This improvement in non-food categories can be attributed to the rural uptick, with a growth rate of 12.8% in the first quarter of 2024 compared to 9.8% in the previous quarter. Personal care and home care categories were particularly strong drivers of this growth.

Interestingly, within urban areas, the non-food sector witnessed increasing consumption, particularly in personal care, which grew at 8.4% in the first quarter of 2024 compared to 5.8% in the previous quarter. NielsenIQ also noted that while large players within the FMCG industry continued to demonstrate stronger performance, smaller manufacturers experienced higher volume growth rates in non-food categories over the last two quarters.

Overall, the data from NielsenIQ paints a picture of dynamic shifts in consumption patterns within India’s FMCG industry. Rural areas, traditionally considered slower in consumption growth, are now driving the industry’s expansion, indicating a potentially significant shift in market dynamics. This underscores the need for FMCG companies to adapt their strategies to capitalize on emerging opportunities in rural markets while continuing to navigate the complexities of urban consumption patterns and retail channels.

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Spotify trials lossless audio feature

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Reports suggest that Spotify is currently experimenting with lossless audio streaming capabilities. This isn’t the initial endeavor by the Swedish audio streaming service to introduce support for lossless audio on its platform. In 2021, Spotify unveiled the Hi-Fi tier with the aim of supporting lossless audio formats. Nevertheless, despite ongoing efforts, it has yet to be officially released.

Now, however, the app’s interface has been updated to reflect new music streaming options for lossless – up to 1,411kbps. For reference, the app has music streaming limited to 320 kbps to date. While the streaming option remains 320 kbps in the latest version of the app, Spotify is reportedly testing a lossless audio streaming option in its app version 1.2.36.

Lossless audio allows high-resolution audio streaming without compression. Therefore, the audio sounds detailed and without quality loss due to compression. Select other music streaming services such as Apple Music, Amazon Prime Music, and Tidal already support lossless audio streaming.

Though still in the works, lossless is expected to be offered to Spotify premium subscribers. It is expected to support up to 24-bit/44.1kHz bit rate using the FLAC audio format. According to media reports, Spotify would offer options to download the music in lossless format for which users will have to update download quality in settings.

Spotify is expected to recommend using Spotify Connect speakers or wired devices for optimal lossless quality as Bluetooth devices do not fully support lossless audio. Additionally, it would show a compatibility checker for the devices, connection type, and bandwidth.

Recently, Spotify announced testing AI-generated playlist features based on text prompts. Currently in beta for premium subscribers only on Android and iOS platforms.

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Raymond on track to be among top 3 global suit makers, says CFO

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Raymond, a leading garment manufacturer and retailer, is set to invest nearly Rs 200 crore to expand its capacity by one-third, aiming to solidify its position as the third-largest suit maker globally. Chief Financial Officer Amit Agarwal highlighted this strategic move in an interview with CNBC-TV18, emphasizing the company’s commitment to growth and profitability.

Agarwal noted that Raymond has experienced robust growth and improved profitability, despite challenges such as weaker demand in the wedding and general retail segments due to inflationary pressures in FY24. However, he expressed confidence in the company’s ability to navigate these challenges, citing a strong performance in the branded apparel segment, which witnessed over 20 percent growth on an annual basis.

While Raymond’s garmenting segment faced de-growth in the fourth quarter, Agarwal attributed this decline to the impact of the Red Sea crisis on shipments. Nevertheless, he highlighted the company’s robust order book, driven by initiatives such as Make in India and the China plus one policy, which aims to diversify supply chains away from excessive reliance on China.

In its financial report for the quarter ended March 31, Raymond reported an 18 percent increase in consolidated net profit, reaching Rs 229 crore. The company’s revenue for the same period amounted to Rs 2,688 crore, representing a significant year-on-year growth compared to Rs 2,192 crore in the corresponding period last year.

Furthermore, Raymond announced a dividend of Rs 10 per share, underlining its commitment to rewarding shareholders and maintaining financial stability.

The company’s strategic investment and expansion plans underscore its ambitious growth trajectory and commitment to maintaining its competitive edge in the global market. With a focus on innovation, efficiency, and resilience, Raymond remains poised to capitalize on emerging opportunities and deliver value to its stakeholders.

Raymond’s investment of approximately Rs 200 crore to expand its garmenting capacity signals a strategic move to bolster its global standing in the apparel industry. By enhancing its production capabilities, Raymond aims to capitalize on growing demand for quality suits and position itself as a key player in the international market. Despite challenges posed by weaker retail demand, particularly in segments like weddings, Raymond’s strong performance in branded apparel underscores the enduring value of its brand and its ability to resonate with consumers. This resilience, coupled with a focus on operational efficiency and market diversification, positions Raymond favorably for sustained growth and profitability. The company’s proactive approach to address challenges, such as the impact of the Red Sea crisis on shipments, demonstrates its agility and adaptability in navigating geopolitical disruptions.

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India’s IndiGo orders 30 Airbus A350 widebody aircraft

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While the Airbus A320 Family is supporting the democratization of air travel in India, the A350 has become the reference aircraft to unlock the true potential of the international market for the Indian carriers.

IndiGo, India’s largest airline, has placed a firm order for 30 Airbus A350-900 aircraft. The order will help expand IndiGo’s international network to long-haul destinations.

India, the world’s fastest growing major aviation market, is on the verge of an international travel boom as the economy grows and household incomes rise. The A350 is perfectly positioned to serve the country’s aspirations for long-range travel. The choice of the A350 is a reaffirmation of IndiGo’s continued trust in Airbus and is yet another validation of the aircraft as the undisputed leader in long-haul air travel.

“Today’s historic moment marks a new chapter for IndiGo and will further shape the future of the airline and for Indian aviation at the same time. For IndiGo, after successfully pioneering the Indian skies with an unprecedented journey, its fleet of 30 Airbus A350-900 aircraft will allow IndiGo to embark on its next phase of becoming one of the leading global aviation players. At IndiGo, we take pride in being India’s preferred airline and for offering connectivity to our customers, in and with India. This reaffirms IndiGo’s belief in, and commitment to, the growth of India, and in our strategic partnership with Airbus,” said Pieter Elbers, CEO, IndiGo.

“A heartfelt thank you to IndiGo for putting its trust in Airbus once again, and to our respective teams who negotiated this agreement for 30 A350s. IndiGo’s first widebody order opens an exciting new chapter in our close partnership. We are proud that our fuel-efficient, next-generation A320 Family revolutionized domestic air travel in India, and that now the A350 is poised to replicate the same success on long-haul routes,” Benoît de Saint-Exupéry, Airbus EVP Sales, Commercial Aircraft. Bound in a relationship of symbiotic growth with India for more than half a century, Airbus products and services have catalyzed the growth of the country’s civil aviation sector. While the Airbus A320 Family is supporting the democratization of air travel in India, the A350 has become the reference aircraft to unlock the true potential of the international market for the Indian carriers.

IndiGo is among the fastest growing airline companies in the world, and is one of the largest A320 Family customers.

The A350 is the world’s most modern and efficient wide-body aircraft in the 300-410 seater category. The A350’s clean sheet design includes state-of-the-art technologies and aerodynamics delivering unmatched standards of efficiency and comfort. Its new generation engines and use of lightweight materials bring a 25 per cent advantage in fuel burn, operating costs and carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions, compared to previous generation competitor aircraft.

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Services sector posts sharpest expansion in 14 yrs, record exports

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Business activity increased across the four sub-categories monitored by the survey, led by steep growth in finance and insurance.

India’s service sector made a strong start to the first fiscal quarter as new business in terms of total sales and output registered the sharpest expansion in 14 years, taking the seasonally adjusted HSBC India Services Business Activity Index to 60.8 in April.

Despite falling from 61.2 at the end of the previous fiscal quarter, last month saw the second-fastest rise in international orders in series history, as a near-record upturn in services exports helped boost sales growth on the back of favorable economic conditions, demand strength, and rising intakes of new work.

Business activity increased across the four sub-categories monitored by the survey, led by steep growth in finance and insurance. In addition to buoyant domestic demand, firms noted new business gains from several parts of the world, which collectively underpinned the second-quickest upturn in international sales since the series started in September 2014.

Notably, services companies observed the second-fastest increase in new export business in the near 10-year series history, behind only that seen in March, buoyed by gains from several countries in Asia, Africa, Europe, the Americas, and Middle East.

Outstanding business, meanwhile, increased for the 28th consecutive month in April, albeit at a slight pace that was softer than in March and broadly aligned with the average over this sequence.

According to Pranjul Bhandari, Chief India Economist at HSBC, India’s service activity rose at a slightly softer pace in April, backed by a further rise in new orders, with notable strength in domestic demand. “Although new export orders remained robust, they showed a slight moderation from March figures. Overall confidence among service providers for the year-ahead outlook improved markedly, bolstered by resilient demand conditions. In terms of overall activity, aggregate output across both the manufacturing and service sectors rose significantly in April, albeit at a slightly slower pace, indicating sustained health in these sectors,” says Bhandari.

Wage pressures and higher food prices, meanwhile, led to another increase in cost burdens, which firms partially passed on to their customers. Charge inflation eased from March’s near seven-year high, however. Amid reports of higher input (particularly fruits and vegetables) and labor costs, operating expenses continued to increase in April. The overall rate of inflation pulled back since March and was broadly aligned with its long-run average.

The consumer services segment saw by far the sharpest increase in input costs. A backdrop of robust underlying demand enabled service providers to pass part of their additional cost burdens through to clients in the form of increased charges. The rate of selling price inflation eased from March’s near seven-year high and was close to its long-run trend.

Buoyed by rising inflows of new business, a few service providers in India showed an increased appetite for new hires in April. That said, with several companies indicating that payroll numbers were sufficient for current requirements, the rate of job creation was marginal and softer than that seen at the end of the previous fiscal year.

Finally, confidence among service providers towards the year-ahead outlook for business activity improved to a three-month high. Marketing efforts and efficiency gains, alongside plans to price competitively and predictions that demand conditions will remain favorable, boosted optimism.

The final HSBC India Composite index also signaled a substantial rate of expansion across the private sector, reading at 61.5 in April (March: 61.8), — one of the highest seen in close to 14 years. It, however, came in below the flash estimate. As was the case for output, manufacturers continued to note a stronger increase in new business intakes than service providers. Aggregate sales rose sharply, and at one of the fastest rates since mid-2010. Goods producers also led April’s rise in payroll numbers, with softer growth in the service economy curbing job creation at the composite level.

Aggregate input costs across India rose moderately at the start of the first fiscal quarter. The rate of inflation was softer than in March and below its long-run average. Here, the stronger increase was registered in the service sector. Moderate increases in selling prices were recorded at manufacturing firms and their services counterparts. Across the private sector, charge inflation softened since March.

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