Tobacco farmers in Andhra Pradesh are poised to gain following decreased crop yields in Brazil, Zimbabwe, and Indonesia due to adverse weather conditions. Auction prices in Andhra have surged to near-record levels and are anticipated to escalate further in the upcoming weeks, ranging from Rs 280 to Rs 290 per kg. Experts predict prices to exceed Rs 300 per kg, representing a 30% increase from initial farmer expectations.

The spike in auction prices is attributed to the participation of small-scale players offering competitive bids. Despite initial concerns about surpassing the Indian Tobacco Board’s target production of 140 million kg, Andhra Pradesh farmers are expected to benefit. The board projects total production to reach 160-170 million kg, as reported.

Trade analysts attributed the price increase to crop damage in Brazil and Zimbabwe. Brazil’s production fell to 440 million kg from an estimated 550 million kg, while Zimbabwe’s crop decreased to approximately 245 million kg from an expected 300 million kg. Meanwhile, drought conditions in Indonesia, another tobacco-producing country, resulted in crop failures.

China, another significant producer, has imposed limitations on tobacco exports to protect its domestic cigarette industry in response to reports of global stock shortages. This action has fueled price increases in tobacco-producing nations, as exporters and cigarette manufacturers rush to secure supplies.

The news report quoted a tobacco exporter as saying that the disparity between demand and production is expected to uphold price escalations for another year. “This is likely to benefit Indian growers,” he said.

According to a report by the global cancer observatory Globocan, by 2040, India is projected to witness a significant increase in cancer cases, reaching 2.1 million. Oral cavity cancer stands out as the most prevalent form among all cancer cases, with India boasting the highest number of such patients globally. Tobacco consumption remains a primary factor driving these statistics.

Around 80-90 per cent of individuals diagnosed with oral cancer have been observed to consume tobacco in various forms, including smoking or chewing.

The lifestyle prevalent in specific areas of the country, particularly in the northern regions, significantly contributes to this issue. In these regions, tobacco smoking and chewing are prevalent practices, serving as major contributors to head and neck cancer, according to the Globocan report.

India is poised to revolutionize its agricultural statistics system through the implementation of routine digital crop surveys, bolstered by advanced analytics and artificial intelligence (AI) capabilities. According to officials, this initiative, slated for rollout from the upcoming summer, aims to enhance the accuracy of acreage evaluation nationwide.

Officials highlighted that the adoption of digital crop surveys will enable the government to develop more precise farm production forecasts and facilitate the timely implementation of appropriate trade policy measures. They emphasized that the current reliance on data provided by local officials and field surveys for crop sowing information has sometimes yielded unreliable results, leading to impulsive government responses and potential trade disruptions.

Under the proposed system, state nodal officials will utilize a mobile application alongside relevant web applications to conduct digital crop surveys and collect data on crop sowing. The Ministry of Agriculture and Farmers’ Welfare is spearheading efforts to establish a robust crop survey system integrating cutting-edge technologies such as visual and advanced analytics, GIS-GPS technologies, and AI/ML (machine learning) to enhance the accuracy of sowing estimates.

A pilot digital crop survey was initiated across 12 states last year, with initial findings showing promise. Officials indicated plans to expand this initiative to a larger number of states before implementing it nationwide. Selected states for the pilot phase included Madhya Pradesh, Karnataka, Telangana, Andhra Pradesh, Uttar Pradesh, Rajasthan, among others, chosen based on their readiness regarding prerequisite criteria for Digital Crop Surveys (DCS), including geo-referencing of village maps and digitization of the record of rights (RoR) with ownership details.

Pronab Sen, former chairman of the National Statistical Commission, emphasized the significance of gathering accurate crop sowing data, stating, “Building a robust farm statistics system hinges on accurate data collection. The planned new system will undoubtedly contribute, although it may require some time for full implementation.”

India is on the brink of revolutionizing its agricultural statistics system with the introduction of routine digital crop surveys, backed by advanced analytics and artificial intelligence (AI). Scheduled for implementation starting next summer, this initiative aims to significantly enhance the accuracy of acreage evaluation nationwide.

Officials stress that the adoption of digital crop surveys will empower the government to develop more precise farm production forecasts and enable timely implementation of appropriate trade policy measures. The current reliance on data provided by local officials and field surveys for crop sowing information has proven to be occasionally unreliable, leading to impulsive government responses and potential trade disruptions.

Under the proposed system, state nodal officials will utilize a mobile application along with relevant web applications to conduct digital crop surveys and gather data on crop sowing. The Ministry of Agriculture and Farmers’ Welfare is spearheading efforts to establish a robust crop survey system integrating cutting-edge technologies like visual and advanced analytics, GIS-GPS technologies, and AI/ML (machine learning) to enhance the accuracy of sowing estimates.

A pilot digital crop survey conducted across 12 states last year showed promising initial results. Officials plan to expand this initiative to more states before rolling it out nationwide. Selected states for the pilot phase included Madhya Pradesh, Karnataka, Telangana, Andhra Pradesh, Uttar Pradesh, Rajasthan, among others, chosen based on their readiness regarding prerequisite criteria for Digital Crop Surveys (DCS). Pronab Sen, former chairman of the National Statistical Commission, highlighted the importance of gathering accurate crop sowing data, stating that while the planned new system will undoubtedly contribute, its full implementation may require some time.

To enhance cotton production, a pilot project was initiated in 2023-2024, introducing technologies like High Density Planting System (HDPS), Closer Spacing planting, and Production technology for ELS cotton.

India needs to focus on R&D and improved cultivation methods to meet the rising cotton demand in the textile industry at a time when the fiber crop is serving as a cornerstone in supporting the livelihoods of approximately 6 million farmers and an additional 40-50 million individuals involved in related activities, said Raghavan Sampath Kumar, Executive Director, Federation of Seed Industry of India (FSII). He pointed to what Chandrakant Patil, Minister of Textiles, Government of Maharashtra, wrote in an article recently highlighting that the country stands at the cusp of becoming a global textile powerhouse, with numerous states like Maharashtra, Telangana, and Tamil Nadu spearheading policy initiatives to establish textile parks.

The aim is to propel the industry towards a projected $250-billion in textile production by 2030. Sampath Kumar said the textile industry is undergoing a significant transformation with initiatives like the PLI Scheme for Textiles, Kasturi Cotton Bharat program, National Technical Textiles Mission (NTTM), SAMARTH, and PM MITRA, development of 11 exclusive textile parks, strengthening the textile value chain through technological upgradation and so on. With over 45 million skilled workers, the textile sector is significant for employment and economic growth in India. To boost India’s textile sector’s global competitiveness, promoting cotton cultivation is paramount as approximately 74% of the apparel exported from India is made of cotton. Yet, with cotton being the primary source, there are key challenges and concerns that both the government and industry need to acknowledge and address, Sampath Kumar said.

Firstly, the cotton industry requires revitalization through increased production and strengthening of the value chain. With the introduction of Bt Cotton, India saw a significant surge in cotton production from 10 to nearly 40 million bales annually between early 2000s and FY2014, transforming into a leading producer. Cotton production in India increased steadily and rather steeply from 2004-05 onwards primarily due to a sharp rise in yield. However, continuously evolving challenges of pests and diseases, weeds, salinity and soil degradation, and climate aberrations are causing stagnation post-FY2015, with production at 36.2 million bales in FY2022.

Hence, the cotton industry in India is currently at crossroads and there is an imminent need to find innovative solutions through scientific research. Research on pests particularly pink bollworm, several diseases, herbicide-tolerance enable more efficient control against these challenges, reducing manual labor and potentially increasing yields. All these present enormous opportunities for sustainable growth. However, to achieve the above, there should be an imperative on promoting new concepts like High Density Planting System, to increase yields and improve profitability.

It’s crucial for both government and private sectors to collaborate in adopting and promoting innovative technologies to boost yield and farmers’ income, Sampath Kumar added. To enhance cotton production, a pilot project was initiated in 2023-2024, introducing technologies like High Density Planting System (HDPS), Closer Spacing planting, and Production technology for ELS cotton. HDPS has shown promising results, with Maharashtra farmers reporting a three fold yield increase.

It involves denser sowing, boosting light interception, boll production, and yield while optimizing nutrient and water use and suppressing weed growth. Popularizing such practices will increase overall cotton production, realizing the state’s aspiration to drive the Indian textile industry’s growth story.

With the farm Acts no longer under consideration, the government might focus on reforming the input aspect of the agriculture sector, which includes regulations and rules governing seeds, fertilizers, and plant chemicals.

Sources said such a blueprint, which is aimed at making the life of farmers easier, with quicker approvals but not compromising on quality, is in the works as part of the 100-day agenda of Modi 3.0. Also, ways to administer fertilizer subsidy more effectively and cutting down on leakages and diversions to build on the success of neem-coated urea are being thought of.

Few years back, a proposal was mooted in some quarters to conduct a pilot in a few districts of the country on a modified version of the direct benefit transfer (DBT) that would establish some sort of linkage between land holding and the nutrient’s consumption.

Currently, the version of DBT in place involves farmers purchasing their fertilizers through point of sale (POS) devices after undergoing Aadhaar authentication. This ensures that the identity of the person who purchases fertilizer bags is well established. However, there is no restriction on the number of bags that each farmer can purchase. This sometimes leads to excess usage and chances of misuse.

In the case of seeds and plant chemicals, sources said lots of reforms are urgently needed as the regulatory and approval process in India takes a long time. This is because it involves multiple layers.

They said the government could look at creating a favorable policy environment for the agrochemicals sector. This would facilitate an increase in agrochemical exports and position India as an attractive destination for foreign investments. It would also safeguard the interests of small and regional players operating in the industry.

The current process for registration of a new agrochemical molecule in India is often perceived as time-consuming, costly, and a complex procedure by the industry. Only a few large multinational companies and leading domestic players can afford to invest in research and development (R&D) to develop new molecules and get them registered for manufacture and sale.

As a result, only around 280 molecules and 800 formulations (including combinations) are registered in India. Compared to India, this number is double in the European Union (EU) and triple in Japan.

India has authorized the export of a restricted quantity of onions to the United Arab Emirates (UAE) and Sri Lanka amidst stringent export regulations on the staple vegetable. The Ministry of Commerce and Industry, in coordination with the Directorate General of Foreign Trade (DGFT), issued a notification permitting the export of an additional 10,000 metric tons (MT) of onions to both the UAE and Sri Lanka, facilitated through the National Cooperative Exports Limited (NCEL).

This decision comes in the wake of India’s continued efforts to manage onion exports amidst fluctuations in domestic availability and international demand. In March, the Indian government had sanctioned the export of 50,000 tonnes of onions to Bangladesh.

However, despite these allowances, the Indian government has extended the ban on onion exports until further notice. Initially imposed in early December 2023 until March 2024, the ban has been extended indefinitely. Export permissions will be granted solely based on central government approval, considering requests from other countries.

The export of onions from India has been subject to various regulatory measures aimed at stabilizing domestic prices and ensuring adequate supply in the domestic market. In August, the government imposed a 40 percent duty on onion exports to curb price inflation and enhance domestic availability. Additionally, a Minimum Export Price (MEP) of USD 800 per tonne was set for onion exports, effective from October 29.

Notably, the export duty exemption was granted for ‘Bangalore rose onion,’ a specific variety with a Geographical Indication (GI) tag, subject to certification from the Horticulture Commissioner, Government of Karnataka.

In response to rising onion prices, the Indian government has been releasing onions from its buffer stock. The buffer stock, maintained to address supply shortages and stabilize prices during lean seasons, has been expanded to 300,000 tonnes for the 2023-24 season, up from 251,000 tonnes in the previous season.

Furthermore, procurement of rabi onions for the 2024-25 season commenced earlier than usual, with a target of procuring 500,000 tonnes during the rabi season. Rabi onions, harvested from April to June, constitute a significant portion of India’s onion production and play a crucial role in meeting domestic demand until the Kharif crop is harvested later in the year.

India’s decision to permit limited onion exports to the UAE and Sri Lanka reflects a delicate balancing act aimed at managing domestic supply, stabilizing prices, and meeting international obligations amidst challenging market conditions. As the government continues to monitor onion availability and demand dynamics, regulatory measures will likely remain a key tool in ensuring food security and price stability in the domestic market.

India’s Policy Response

As India grapples with the intricacies of onion exports amidst domestic demand fluctuations and international market dynamics, the recent policy measures underscore the complexities inherent in managing agricultural trade. The decision to allow limited onion exports to the UAE and Sri Lanka while extending the ban domestically reflects India’s nuanced approach towards balancing conflicting interests of ensuring domestic availability and meeting international obligations.

The authorization of onion exports to specific destinations comes against the backdrop of stringent export regulations aimed at stabilizing domestic prices and safeguarding food security. The extension of the export ban until further notice highlights the government’s cautious approach in managing onion supplies amid uncertainties in production and consumption patterns.

India’s onion export policies have been subject to periodic revisions and adjustments in response to changing market conditions and socio-economic imperatives. The imposition of export duties and Minimum Export Prices (MEP) aims to curb speculative trading and ensure fair pricing in the domestic market. Additionally, exemptions for specific varieties like ‘Bangalore rose onion’ underscore the recognition of geographical indications and the promotion of niche agricultural products.

The role of buffer stocks in mitigating supply shortages and price volatility cannot be overstated. The expansion of buffer stock levels for the 2023-24 season reflects the government’s proactive stance in enhancing food security and stabilizing prices during lean periods. Moreover, the early procurement of rabi onions for the 2024-25 season signifies strategic planning to preempt potential supply disruptions and mitigate market uncertainties.

India’s approach towards onion exports encapsulates broader policy objectives of promoting agricultural sustainability, enhancing farmer livelihoods, and ensuring food security. By striking a delicate balance between domestic imperatives and international commitments, the government aims to foster a resilient agricultural sector capable of meeting diverse challenges and opportunities.

However, the efficacy of export regulations and buffer stock management hinges on effective implementation and monitoring mechanisms. Timely interventions, informed by real-time data and market intelligence, are essential to mitigate risks and capitalize on emerging opportunities in agricultural trade.

Moving forward, India’s onion export policies are likely to evolve in response to changing global market dynamics, climatic conditions, and technological advancements. Embracing digital solutions and supply chain innovations can enhance transparency, efficiency, and resilience in agricultural trade, thereby bolstering India’s position as a reliable supplier in the global marketplace.

Overall, India’s management of onion exports reflects a multifaceted approach that seeks to reconcile competing priorities of domestic food security and international trade obligations. While challenges persist, proactive policy measures, supported by robust institutional frameworks and stakeholder engagement, are critical in navigating the complexities of agricultural trade and fostering sustainable development. As India continues to navigate the intricacies of onion export management, the emphasis remains on fostering resilience, inclusivity, and innovation across the agricultural value chain to ensure the long-term prosperity of farmers and consumers alike.

The Central government has given its nod for the procurement of 1.39 lakh tonnes of Bengal gram (chana) from Karnataka during the 2023-24 rabi season under the Price Support Scheme (PSS), announced Union Minister Shobha Karandlaje on Thursday. Additionally, the Centre has disbursed the third instalment of Rs 235.14 crore under the Rashtriya Krishi Vikas Yojana (RKVY) to the Karnataka government for the fiscal year 2023-24. According to an official statement, the Agriculture Ministry’s approval for the procurement of Bengal gram in Karnataka under the PSS comes at a Minimum Support Price (MSP) of Rs 5,440 per quintal, with a maximum quantity of 1,39,740 tonnes earmarked for the Rabi season 2023-24.

In her remarks, Minister Karandlaje outlined that the released funds under the RKVY scheme will be allocated for various components aimed at bolstering agricultural infrastructure in the state. These components include the construction of godowns, water harvesting structures, primary demonstration units, procurement of agricultural machinery such as tractors, power tillers, and drones, as well as initiatives promoting integrated farming and soil health fertility.

Moreover, Minister Karandlaje highlighted that an additional allocation of Rs 178.65 crore was sanctioned to Karnataka on January 25 under the RKVY scheme. Consequently, the total allocation for the state under the RKVY scheme for the fiscal year 2023- 24 has been revised to Rs 761.89 crore, reflecting an increase from the initial allocation of Rs 583.24 crore. The statement further revealed that out of the total allocated amount, Rs 526.75 crore has been disbursed by the Centre thus far, with the remaining balance slated for release upon the utilization of the previously released funds by the state government.