India’s demographic landscape is poised for a significant transformation, with projections indicating a gradual increase in the median age from approximately 29 to 38 by the year 2050. Concurrently, the proportion of aged individuals, aged 60 and above, is expected to rise from around 11 percent in 2024 to 21 percent in 2050. These demographic shifts signal a burgeoning demand for senior care services, including housing, within the country.

Acknowledging this demographic trend, industry experts anticipate substantial growth in the senior living market in India. According to Badal Yagnik, CEO of Colliers India, the current nascent stage of the senior living market presents a lucrative opportunity for private organized developers to tap into the burgeoning demand. With rising interest from institutional players and leading real estate developers, the senior housing sector is projected to expand nearly fivefold by 2030.

Factors such as increasing life expectancy, nuclearization of families, higher income levels, and a growing emphasis on post-retirement lifestyle stability are driving the demand for senior living services, particularly in urban areas. Seniors today seek amenities such as fitness centers, recreational activities, and cultural events to support an active and fulfilling lifestyle. Colliers estimates the current demand for senior housing at 18-20 lakh units, with projections indicating a significant increase in the next five to six years.

However, despite the growing demand, the supply of senior housing in India remains limited. Currently, the organized sector offers close to 20,000 units, translating to a mere 1% penetration rate. In contrast, mature markets like the US, UK, and Australia boast penetration rates of 6-7%. Vimal Nadar, Senior Director & Head of Research at Colliers India, predicts that the senior living market in India, currently valued at USD 2-3 billion, will witness a robust CAGR of over 30% and reach approximately USD 12 billion by 2030.

The senior living segment in India primarily offers independent living and assisted living options. Independent living facilities cater to seniors who can manage their daily activities independently but prefer the convenience of community living. On the other hand, assisted living provides additional services such as housekeeping, medical coordination, and emergency response systems.

Major organized developers in this sector include Ashiana, Columbia Pacific, Paranjape, Anatara, and Primus Senior Living.

India’s inflation based on the wholesale price index (WPI) in April increased at a positive rate of 1.26 per cent year on year, when it was 0.8% in April 2023, driven by fuel and power, WPI-food (primary food + manufactured food) and core-WPI (manufactured non-food products) groups, rising to a 13-month high, pushed by an increase in prices of food articles, electricity, crude petroleum and natural gas, manufacture of food products, and other manufacturing, among other factors.

The April WPI rose from 0.5 per cent in March 2024. The month-over-month change in WPI index for the month of April 2024 stood at 0.79 per cent as compared to March 2024, provisional data released by the Commerce Ministry showed on Tuesday. The WPI inflation eased marginally to 0.2 per cent in February 2024 from 0.3 per cent in January 2024, partly led by the decline in the inflation for minerals as well as the wider YoY deflation in core-WPI and fuel and power in February 2024 vs. January 2024.

Rating agency ICRA had forecast that WPI inflation would rise in March 2024, crossing the 1.0 per cent mark after a gap of 11 months, amid the ongoing uptick in international prices of crude oil and other commodities, as well as an unfavorable base (+1.4 per cent in March 2023. The food Index consisting of ‘food articles’ from primary articles group and ‘food product’ from manufactured products group have increased from 180.1 in March 2024 to 183.6 in April 2024. The rate of inflation based on WPI food index increased from 4.65 per cent in March 2024 to 5.52 per cent in April 2024.

The index for primary articles, a major group, increased by 1.97 per cent to 186.7 in April 2024 from 183.1 for the month of March 2024. Prices of crude petroleum and natural gas increased 3.56 per cent and that of food articles increased 2.67 per cent as compared to March 2024. Prices of non-food articles fell 1.19 per cent and minerals fell by 1.55 per cent in April 2024 as compared to March 2024. The index for fuel and power declined by 0.26 per cent to 154.8 in April 2024 from 155.2 in March 2024. Prices of mineral oils rose 0.06 per cent in April 2024 as compared to March 2024. Prices of electricity decreased 1.20 per cent in April 2024 as compared to March 2024.

The index for another major group, manufactured products increased by 0.50 per cent to 140.8 in April 2024 from 140.1 for the month of March 2024. Some of the important groups that showed month-over-month increase in prices are basic metals, other manufacturing, textiles, food products, chemical and chemical products, etc. Some of the groups that witnessed a decrease in prices are other non-metallic mineral products, paper and paper products, motor vehicles, trailers and semi-trailers, furniture and leather and related products in April 2024 as compared to March 2024.

The Jammu Kashmir Awami Action Committee (JAAC) has rejected an offer from the Pakistan-occupied Jammu and Kashmir (PoJK) government to reduce electricity prices by 50 percent per unit. According to ARY News, JAAC insists on rates that reflect the costs of hydropower generation. Government sources revealed that the proposal for a 50 percent reduction in electricity rates was swiftly dismissed by the Kashmir action committee, arguing that consumers should be billed according to the production costs of hydropower in PoJK.

Simultaneously, the government is preparing to subsidize flour prices. However, the Public Action Committee has declared a long march from Rawalakot to Muzaffarabad, rejecting the government’s stance on the matter. The protesters plan to halt in Kotli overnight during the long march. Committee member Umar Nazeer criticized the government’s lack of seriousness regarding their demands.

Earlier in the day, it was reported that the PoJK government had agreed to all demands of the Joint Awami Action Committee (JAAC) following negotiations between the JAAC delegation and the territory’s Chief Secretary at the residence of the Rawalakot Commissioner. Sources indicate that the government has also agreed to the committee’s demand for flour subsidies and to rescind the electricity bill hikes.

Violent clashes erupted between police and activists of a rights movement in PoJK amid a wheel-jam and shutter-down strike across the territory. The clashes resulted in the death of at least one police official and injuries to several others. Sub-inspector Adnan Qureshi succumbed to a gunshot wound in the chest in Islamgarh, where he was deployed to quell a rally for Muzaffarabad under the banner of the Jammu Kashmir Joint Awami Action Committee (JAAC).

The JAAC, led by traders in most parts of the state, has been advocating for electricity pricing aligned with hydropower generation costs in PoJK, subsidized wheat flour, and an end to elite-class privileges. Violent protesters vandalized multiple vehicles, including a magistrate’s car, on the Poonch-Kotli road. Additionally, markets, trade centers, offices, schools, and restaurants remained closed across PoJK, according to ARY News.

Amid a resumption of the march in Pakistan-occupied Jammu and Kashmir (PoJK), President Asif Ali Zardari and Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif made pledges to address the ‘genuine demands’ of the protesters. However, despite efforts, an agreement between the Jammu Kashmir Joint Awami Action Committee and the PoJK government remained elusive, with the protest movement pressing forward with its march on Muzaffarabad, as reported by Dawn.

Following clashes that resulted in the death of a policeman, relative calm settled over the region, though business centers remained shuttered and public transport suspended in Muzaffarabad and Poonch divisions. Mirpur saw a partial strike, signaling the depth of sentiment driving the protests.

The impasse persisted even after talks between the JAAC core committee and PoJK Chief Secretary Dawood Bareach ended without progress in Rawalakot. A protester from Rawalakot accused the government of employing evasive tactics, exacerbating tensions further, as reported by Dawn. Participants in the discussions included figures from various regions, including Muzaffarabad, Rawalakot, Kotli, and Bagh. However, hopes for a breakthrough were dashed, as one participant, Sardar Umar Nazir Kashmiri, lamented the lack of tangible outcomes and accused the government.

The Indian government on Monday provided a budget support to Maldives in the form of a rollover of USD 50 million Treasury bill.

The Indian government extended budget support to the Maldives by rolling over a USD 50 million Treasury Bill for an additional year, as requested by Maldivian Foreign Minister Moosa Zameer. The State Bank of India subscribed to the Government Treasury Bill for another year upon maturity of the previous subscription. Under this unique Government-to-Government arrangement, SBI provides zero-cost (interest-free) subscriptions to the Government of Maldives, as stated by the Indian High Commission in Maldives.

“The continuation of subscription has been made at the special request of the Government of Maldives to secure budgetary support from the Government of India,” the statement read.

The Maldivian Foreign Ministry, in their statement, stated that the Indian government’s decision to roll over the T-Bill comes after Maldivian Foreign Minister Moosa Zameer requested the External Affairs Minister S Jaishankar during his official visit to India earlier this month.

The ministry further appreciated the Indian government’s support to the Maldives in the form of budgetary allocation.

“Large number of infrastructural developmental projects and High Impact Community Developmental projects are underway with the assistance from the Government of India, which consists of a notable part as grant assistance,” the statement stated.

The Maldivian government looks forward to continuing the collaborative partnership between the two countries for the mutual benefit and prosperity of their people, it added.

Union Home Minister Amit Shah, in an exclusive interview with a leading media channel on Monday, cautioned against drawing correlations between recent stock market fluctuations and the upcoming 2024 Lok Sabha elections. Shah, a pivotal figure in India’s political landscape, advised investors to consider purchasing stocks before June 4th, the date of the Lok Sabha election results. Expressing optimism, Shah forecasted a surge in the domestic stock market in the forthcoming period.

“I can’t anticipate stock market moves. But normally whenever a stable government is formed at Centre, the market sees a rally. I see 400-plus seat wins for the Bharatiya Janata Party [BJP], a stable Modi government coming, and thus market rising,” Shah told NDTV.

Shah’s remarks came amidst the ongoing fourth phase of the general elections and a recent downturn in the benchmark Nifty index, which witnessed declines in six out of the last seven sessions. Despite prevailing market uncertainties surrounding the election results, Shah remained steadfast in his outlook.

Nomura India, in the financial realm, pointed out the likelihood of a BJP victory based on recent opinion polls, anticipating policy continuity post the 2024 general elections. According to Nomura, the government may focus on politically contentious reforms concerning land, labor, capital, judicial systems, and tax administration, among others.

MUFG Bank offered a nuanced perspective, acknowledging the prevailing consensus regarding a robust BJP performance while also highlighting increased uncertainty due to lower voter turnout in the initial phases of the elections. The bank suggested that market sentiment should remain positive over time if the BJP secures a majority of seats, with expectations of policy continuity in critical areas.

Mirae Asset highlighted the importance of the July Budget in the event of a BJP victory, emphasizing potential changes in taxation policies and agricultural schemes. The firm stressed long-term strategies, focusing on infrastructure development, agricultural reforms, and employment generation to stimulate demand from rural India.

Lastly, PhillipCapital identified a potential market rally in the event of the BJP-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA) surpassing the 400-seat target. The brokerage firm advised investors to closely monitor subsequent election phases, recognizing their potential impact on market dynamics.

“If a lower 300-330 seats for the NDA results in a knee-jerk market reaction [a fall], we would treat it as a buying opportunity. A further worsening of voter turnout in the following election phases could have a bearing on election outcome and equities – so we would keep a close watch,” the domestic brokerage said in its note.

Overall, amidst the evolving political landscape and market fluctuations, stakeholders in India’s financial markets are closely observing the ongoing Lok Sabha elections, anticipating their impact on policy continuity and market sentiment in the coming period.

Amitabh Kant, India’s G20 Sherpa and former CEO of Niti Aayog, highlighted several positive macroeconomic indicators and forecasted that India is poised to surpass Japan and become the world’s fourth-largest economy by 2025. Currently, India ranks fifth in terms of GDP size, following the US, China, Germany, and Japan. India surpassed the UK in 2022 to attain this position. Just ten years ago, India’s GDP ranked eleventh globally. Presently, India’s GDP is estimated at approximately USD 3.7 trillion.

Some highlights of India’s journey to the top 5 economies of the world in 2024 from Fragile 5 in 2013, according to Kant, among others, record GST collection, over 8 per cent GDP growth in the past three quarters, trading in Indian currency Rupee with various countries (to be precise 27), inflation at manageable levels.

The term Fragile 5 was coined by a Morgan Stanley analyst in 2013 and refers to a set of five emerging countries, including India, whose economy was not doing well back then. The other four countries were Brazil, Indonesia, South Africa, and Turkey. Double-digit growth in the steel, cement, and automobile manufacturing sectors; global leader in digital public infrastructure, with e-transactions surging to 134 billion, accounting for 46 per cent of all global digital payments; accounts opened under Jan Dhan, Aadhaar and Mobile trinity have over Rs 2.32 lakh crore as current balance; average annual inflation between 2013-14 and 2022-23 declined to 5 per cent from 8.2 per cent between 2003-04 and 2013-14 are some other things he attributed to India’s firm growth.

Firm GDP growth forecasts, inflation at manageable levels, political stability at the central government level, and appreciable central bank monetary policy, have all contributed to painting a bright picture for the Indian economy in recent quarters. India’s GDP grew at a massive 8.4 per cent during the October-December quarter of the financial year 2023-24, and the country continued to remain the fastest-growing major economy and is poised to maintain its growth trajectory going ahead.

India is set to remain the fastest-growing among major economies in 2024, according to the latest International Monetary Fund’s World Economic Outlook. IMF, in its latest outlook, raised India’s growth projections for 2024 from 6.5 per cent to 6.8 per cent. India’s economy grew 7.2 per cent in 2022-23 and 8.7 per cent in 2021-22, respectively.